In Defense of Jason Bay's Defense

Joe Urbon and his team at CAA Sports have made it clear they’re prepared to enter the offseason starting blocks.

Their client, Jason Bay, is on the verge of becoming one of the most sought-after free agents this winter, and whether it’s continuing negotiations with the Red Sox or introducing the outfielder’s abilities to another suitor, Urbon and his crew are set to make Bay's case.

“We’re ready to go,” Urbon said.

And while teams can’t talk with Bay until the Red Sox’ exclusive negotiating period ends – 15 days after the conclusion of the World Series – Monday Urbon offered one of his initial salvos when it comes to defending the left fielder. He has heard the criticism of Bay’s defense and wants to offer a differing point of view.

He knows that while some defensive metrics continue to hamper Bay’s cause, there are numbers that tell a slightly different story.

“I think the only defensive statistic that I know for sure that is easily measurable is outfield assists and errors committed, and Jason is just the third outfielder in major league history to lead the league in outfield assists while not creating an error all season, the last guy being Carl Yastrzemski,” the agent said. “It used to be that those statistics were enough. In baseball we all need a better evaluation of defensive ability but the defensive metrics we have out there are so debatable, and in most cases proprietary, that it is hard to quantify a player’s ability to play defense.

“Jason Bay is a serviceable outfielder. That’s what we know. We know that Jason bay can play left field. Some will say he’s average, some will say he’s below average. But he’s certainly not a DH or, as someone described him, a hockey goalie out there.”

Urbon is well aware of some of the advanced defensive statistics in which Bay might not measure favorably, such as a “zone rating” that ranked him near the bottom of big league left fielders. But the agent also knows what he has seen and heard from Bay’s teammates, as well as various talent evaluators, and it doesn’t match up with some of the analysis being thrown around of late.

“Without question it takes me by surprise,” Urbon said. “I think it takes most people that see him play on a day-to-day basis, and evaluate players for a living, by surprise. Going back to the metrics, I think that depending on whether or not you use metrics created by one source or another, whether it’s Bill James or John Dewan, if you do take a step back and look you’ll see Jason grades out as an average outfielder in a lot of those categories.”

Perhaps the most pointed criticism of Bay's defense since the conclusion of the Red Sox season came from ESPN’s Buster Olney when appearing on the Dale and Holley Show. When asked about the potential of Bay re-signing with the Red Sox, Olney said:

“[Bay] provides the kind of power that the Red Sox need. But he’s basically a designated hitter playing outfield. That’s the assessment of most of the general managers and scouts that I’ve talked with. He’s so defensively challenged that he’s going to go very quickly to being a DH. If you’re the Red Sox, do you lock yourselves into a five-year deal with a guy who probably projects to DH after Ortiz leaves? I seriously doubt it.”

Again, such comments caught Bay’s representatives off guard.

“It’s a surprise,” Urbon reiterated. “I think that most people who evaluate for a living, their reaction is that that is not true.

“All I can go by are comments by his teammates and others who have seen him play day in and day out. Obviously the only comparison we have as a Red Sox is to Manny and that’s probably not favorable to Jason really. But the feedback I’ve gotten from evaluators is that he plays that position as well as anybody they’ve seen, and that was really from Day 1 or Week 1 coming in and playing left field at Fenway back at the trade deadline last year.”

Then there is the matter of how playing in Fenway Park has affected Bay’s case.

“If you go back to Jason’s days back in Pittsburgh, he’s all over the map,” Urbon explained. “But the one thing that is clear to me is that some of the range on balls over his head he’s gotten worse -- of course, because the ball is hitting the wall. But his arm has gotten better and maybe that makes sense because he’s got a shorter throw. I think the reality is that he is very efficient out there in Fenway Park and the evaluation holds true in visiting parks.

“But I really think that the most important of all of this is let’s not over-focus on the defense. We used to not focus on defense at all as a free agent. Now it seems like that’s all we’re focusing on and there has to be a reason for it.”

The explanation for the sudden infatuation with Bay’s defensive ability can be found in the curiosity that comes with analyzing what could potentially be the highest-paid player in this year’s free agent market.

It is widely believed that it will come down to Matt Holliday (a Scott Boras client) and Bay as to who will come away with the offseason’s biggest haul.

Holliday – 16 months younger than his free agent counterpart – is considered the better defender, while showing enough in his 63-game stint with St. Louis (.353) to make people downplay his sole American League experience, in which he hit .286 in 93 games with Oakland while showing a propensity to be beaten with above-average fastballs.

But, as Urbon points out, Bay certainly has enough going for him that defensive question marks won’t keep teams away.

“I think the most important thing about Jason Bay is that he is truly the most complete player in this free-agent class. I don’t think, I know,” the agent said. “If you take what we’ve divided into six categories – offense, defense, baserunning, consistency/durability, intangibles, handling the media, and the ability to succeed on a platform like Boston – and you look at them, there’s not a more complete player in this free agent market this year, and arguably last year, as well.”