"You know," I told a member of the Blue Jays' decision-making team, "by writing this I'm virtually guaranteeing that you plummet in the standings."

 

Laughter.

 

"I guess we'll take our chances," he said.

 

The way they're going, I don't blame them one bit.

 

After picking the Blue Jays to either win the American League East or finish second in each of the last five seasons -- partially because of a mythical contractual obligation that came with writing about the organization in "Chasing Steinbrenner" back in 2003 -- I decided enough was enough. 

 

I could position the Blue Jays ahead of the Orioles in my AL East rankings this season, but that was it. Nothing more. Too many times I had been burned by either the promise of a pitching staff, or my loyalty to an organization that oozed Canadian pleasantness.

 

So what happens? They go out and start the season 27-14 and head into their May 19 showdown with the Red Sox at Fenway Park not only carrying a three-game division lead, but riding a four-game win streak to boot.

 

That said, I'm not going to be left out after all these seasons of waiting for the promise of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Roy Halladay to translate into legitimate talk of contention. A month and a half late, I'll say it: The Blue Jays are in this race for the long haul.

 

(Bring in paper bag for hyperventilation here.)

 

Perhaps this is a bit reactionary, much like my similar proclamation around this time six years ago. It was in '03, right in the midst of constructing a piece of literature you can probably get online for $2.95 Canadian, that Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi leaned out of his box in the then-SkyDome after Toronto's June 1, 11-8 triumph over the Red Sox and yelled down to the traveling band of Sox fans, "You're ruining my summah!"

 

At that time the celebration was induced by the fact that the Blue Jays had simply surpassed the Red Sox in the standings. WIth the hope of literary glory in the balance, I bought in. Once month later, however, they were six games back, and a month after that it was 13 games.

 

Since then there has been one other season that has offered this kind of hope for the Jays on May 19. That came in '06 when the Jays found themselves just two games back in the A.L. East. They had manned first as late as April 28, and hung in for a while. But by the time the trade deadline came around the 'buyers' had become 'sellers' and another prediction had been put out to pasture.

 

Here are Toronto's other recent May 19 jumping off points: '07, 10 games out; '05, 5 1/2 games out; '04, 7 1/2 games out.

 

So why is this time different? You probably think it has to do with my hope that 'Chasing Steinbrenner' gets some sort of cult classic following because of the Jays' good fortune and I get all kind of Building 19 momentum. Maybe.

 

But in reality it is hard to ignore this team. Much more difficult that the one that was riding through the glory year of '03  on the arms of Cory Lidle, Tanyon Sturtze, Mark Hendrickson and Doug Davis.

 

Yes, the names in the rotation behind Halladay this time around are even more difficult to get behind in some respects. Scott Richmond was playing independent league baseball two years ago. Brian Tallet was a waiver claim. Robert Ray and Brett Cecil are both rookie starters who were collegiate closers just a few years ago. 

 

Heck, the Blue Jays not only lost their No. 2, 3 and 4 starters of a year ago, but then, thanks to injuries, saw their replacements get sidelined as well.

 

Yet, here we are, with these guys smacking the doubt out of us each and every day with almost mind-boggling statistics.

 

The Blue Jays' starters are first in the American League in wins (19), innings pitched (245) and strikeouts (185), while placing third in the A.L. in ERA (3.68). They've also gotten better as they've gone along, having compiled an 11-5 mark with a 3.24 ERA this month.

 

Then comes a relief corps that has been saddled with the same sort of perception as their starting counterparts, having morphed from reclamation projects and bit players to one of the best game-ending groups in the league. The Jays bullpen has the best batting average against in the majors (.219), the fewest hits against (95), the second fewest walks (47) and the fourth-best ERA of any relieving corps in the A.L. (3.46).

 

It doesn't stop there.

 

The offense is first in the major leagues in runs (231), tops in the AL in batting average (.291), second in extra-base hits (146) and third in home runs. The Jays batters are also hitting .395 with the bases loaded and have totaled an identical .291 batting average in both April and May.

 

Then there is the defense.

 

The entire Toronto infield has made the same amount of errors (11) as the Red Sox' shortstop position, with the Jays' starting shortstop, Marco Scutaro, having made just one miscue all season. Oh yeah, and they've also turned the third-most double plays in the American League.

 

So maybe I'm getting sucked in once again, but this time just might be different. You have that '08 Tampa Bay Rays legacy still lingering, they are getting standout rookie starter Ricky Romero back soon and the projected No. 3 starter, Shaun Marcum, is throwing off a mound after having Tommy John surgery last year. 

 

No matter.

 

I fully expect to be barred from going back across the border after this proclamation but here it goes anyway -- the Jays are here to stay.