LAS VEGAS--The smoke is clearing. The Red Sox were happy to kick the tires on a pool of extremely talented free-agent pitchers, discussing with varying degrees of interest CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe.
But the team’s heart was never into the pitching market. Boston entered this offseason with the sort of starting depth that was the envy of most clubs. The years and dollars that would be necessary to acquire players in their post-prime seasons never seemed to make sense.
All along, the prize was Mark Teixeira. That still remains the case. At 28 years old (random oddity: he shares April 11 as a birthday with fellow Georgia Tech alum, free-agent and Scott Boras client Jason Varitek), the first baseman enters free agency at the height of his powers.
“Normally in a free-agent market, you don’t have these types of players available,” Boras said without hyperbole. “This free agent market is a pretty unique time for teams.”
Next year, Holliday will be the only free-agent power hitter who has not yet turned 30. There aren’t any such players following the 2010 season. Prince Fielder, as of now, will be the lone twentysomething power hitter following the 2011 season. The Sox are mindful of that bigger, long-term picture as they proceed in negotiations with Teixeira.
“You want to look as broadly as you can at the free agent and trade market and your roster composition and payroll structure,” explained Sox G.M. Theo Epstein while speaking in generalities, rather than discussing Teixeira specifically. “(You evaluate) large trends in the game and the economy and things like that and try to bring the big picture together and try to apply it to a specific situation. If you only look at what’s in front of your face, it’s hard to execute long-term strategy.”
Teixeira—despite the potential awkwardness of shuffling the roster and jettisoning Mike Lowell to accommodate his prospective arrival—would be a central part of a long-term plan. He could combine with David Ortiz, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis and J.D. Drew to give the Sox a devastating middle of the order.
His signing to a long-term deal would diminish the impact if the 2008 season was a harbinger of decline for Ortiz, or if Youkilis leaves in free agency after the 2010 season. Teixeira would be, quite simply, a force in Boston.
But how much would such a player be worth? How many seasons would he merit?
Already, there are reports that Teixeira has received one offer from the Nationals of eight years and $160 million, another from the Orioles for seven seasons and $150 million. The final bidding will likely head north from there, with some in the industry expecting that the former All-Star and two-time Gold Glover will receive a deal that of greater length and average annual value than Sabathia.
Is Teixeira worth, say, an eight-year deal in excess of $180 million? Is anyone?
TEIXEIRA IN CONTEXT
Teixeira is flourishing. Despite bouncing between three teams (the Rangers, Braves and Angels) in the past two years, his numbers suggest that Teixeira is reaching new career plateaus.
Teixeira’s .963 OPS since the start of 2007 is sixth best in baseball, behind only Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz and Matt Holliday, and just ahead of Manny Ramirez. Teixeira and Pujols are the only two players to record at least a .300 average, .400 OPS and 30 homers in each of the past two years.
The last two seasons have simply continued a striking record of career accomplishment. Teixeira is one of just five players (and the only switch-hitter) to hit at least 200 homers in his first six seasons. His .919 OPS is the 34th best of all-time by a player in his first six seasons. Teixeira ranks 23rd in homers from ages 23-28, putting him in the company of a bunch of Hall of Famers and 500 homerun hitters.
He’s not up to the level of the Barry Bonds / Manny Ramirez / Albert Pujols / A-Rod class of hitters, but Teixeira is in the second tier of lineup forces of this decade. He’s probably the most attractive free-agent hitter—based on age, performance and durability—to be a free agent since Alex Rodriguez signed his first 10-year, $252 million deal following the 2001 season.
Boras describes Teixeira as a “franchise player.” The money that the first baseman receives this offseason will do nothing to undermine the notion.
HOW HAVE LONG-TERM, BIG-MONEY CONTRACTS WORKED OUT?
Long-term deals for free-agent pitchers almost never offer adequate return. Position players are a different story.
There have been six contracts signed by five free agents (A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Giambi, Carlos Beltran) of at least seven years and $100 million. All of those players have performed, over the life of the contract, at an elite level:
Rodriguez and Ramirez were the two best right-handed hitters in the American League over the course of their contracts. Giambi went through some challenging times, but by and large was a productive member of the Yankees lineup for the majority of his seasons in New York. Soriano and Beltran have both been dynamic acquisitions for the Cubs and Mets, respectively.
WILL THE SOX PAY FOR HIM?
On the day that he assumed the role of G.M. more than six years ago, Epstein discussed the importance of avoid the albatross of long-term contracts. He has stayed true to that principle.
“We haven’t given out huge free agent contracts and I think that’s been partly responsible for our success because I think we focus more on long-term building and building from within,” said Epstein. “It doesn’t mean we won’t do it. Under the right circumstances we will. But it’s not exactly our M.O.”
The five-year, $75 million deal given to J.D. Drew is the biggest one ever given out by the Sox under Epstein. The team has never signed a contract of more than six years, done both for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Dustin Pedroia.
All the same, the Sox are rarely rigid in their thinking. The club would, under the right circumstances, contemplate a major long-term deal for the right player. And while Epstein has not commented directly on Teixeira, the Sox privately acknowledge that he is a player worth pursuing even if the cost is significant.
“We’re being aggressive, really aggressive on players that we like,” Epstein said. “I think there’s a chance (the Sox will sign a free agent). There’s definitely a chance that we don’t.
“Players that we like and think can help us, we’re going to try to sign to numbers that we think are reasonable and help us going forward and help us with our foundation,” he continued. “If we get them, great. If we don’t, then we’ll move on.”
The Sox are fully aware of the piles of cash that Teixeira will command, of the likelihood that the current offers being discussed do not represent the end point. The team would, naturally, like to sign him for a shorter term, likely in the vicinity of six years, to minimize risks associated with injuries and performance declines while aging.
All the same, Boston’s front office is not going to dip a tentative toe in the water of these negotiations. Instead, the team will dive into the waters of the offseason’s big offensive fish in pursuit of the biggest free-agent kahuna they've chased.
Alex Speier is a senior writer for WEEI.com.
ALEX SPEIER
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