Just a few years ago, the hallmark of the Red Sox was the merciless destruction of pitching staffs. Historically powerful offenses from 2003-05 had a winning formula that was anything but subtle. The Sox, quite simply, would decimate their opponents with the force of a sledgehammer.
The formula has undergone some revision in recent years. With a line of potentially dominant arms that stretches from Boston to Pawtucket to Fort Myers, the Sox are now viewed as a team whose elite run prevention is the foundation of a run at – and perhaps through – the postseason.
Nevertheless, the fact that the team features a potentially elite rotation and bullpen does not mean that the offense is a non-contributor to a championship run. To the contrary, both with and without Manny Ramirez (and, for that matter, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew), the Sox had one of the most productive offenses in baseball in 2008.
Though they came short of their record-setting standards from earlier this decade, last year’s Sox led the majors in on-base percentage (.358) and finished third in runs scored (845, 5.2 per game). If the team can pair that kind of offensive output with a pitching staff and defense that allows roughly four runs per game, the Sox would be expected to win more than 100 games this year.
The Sox see no reason to fret about their offense, particularly if they enjoy better health this year than they did last. The team opens the year with Lowell, a player who occupied the fifth spot in the lineup on a World Series winner, hitting seventh. That fact attests to the potentially formidable depth of the offense.
“I’m a huge fan of the guys we have on our team right now,” said hitting coach Dave Magadan. “We did a lot of damage last year offensively with a lot of guys hurt.
“We’ve won a lot of games over the last two years with Mikey Lowell, Kevin Youkilis and the rest of the guys in our lineup,” he continued. “I’m a believer that we’ll be just fine offensively.”
The Sox have a goal of achieving above-average production from every position and every spot in the batting order. If they can come near that goal, the Sox will once again have one of the best offenses in baseball.
How realistic is that expectation? Taking a look at the Sox’ everyday lineup – which returns essentially unaltered this year – and comparing it to the 2008 American League averages, health would appear the team’s primary obstacle in producing big offensive numbers.
LEADOFF: JACOBY ELLSBURY, CF
Jacoby Ellsbury’s first full year in the majors was viewed as mildly disappointing. Of course, given that he was nearly unstoppable in his first exposure to the majors in 2007, production that fell just short of league average in 2008 was bound to fall below expectations.
Ellsbury acknowledged that pitchers got the best of him at times last year by busting him with fastballs up and in, and suggests that he devoted substantial energies to correcting the issue this spring. He talked with hitting coach Dave Magadan several times during the offseason about altering his approach, and did a significant amount of work off a tee to correct this issue.
“It definitely wasn’t an issue of whether my hands were quick enough. They’re plenty quick. The issue was just maybe I was looking on the outer half a little too much. It’s more of an adjustment, I would say. It wasn’t a matter of if (my hands) were quick enough or anything,” Ellsbury said in March. “I didn’t want to work too much on the inside pitch and then leave the outside. So I balanced it out. I like where my swing is at right now, take that pitch and drive it to center, right-center and right down the line. I feel really good at the plate.”
Ellsbury was a different hitter in the majors last year than he had been as he raced through the minors. While matriculating through the Sox system, he had nearly as many walks (111) as he did strikeouts (127). Last year, he whiffed almost twice as many times (80) as he walked, resulting in a very modest OBP of .336.
“I think those walk totals and strikeout totals will start to even out, and eventually his walk total will surpass his strikeout total,” said Magadan. “That’s usually the progression of most big-league hitters. They usually don’t arrive with that walk to strikeout ratio the same that he they are in the minors.”
If Ellsbury goes from slightly below average at his position to slightly above average, the dynamic of the offense will be different. Such an improvement would be common for a 25-year-old in his second full season.
“I think Jacoby is already an impact defender and impact base runner,” Sox G.M. Theo Epstein said at the start of spring training. “Based on his track record in the minor leagues, this is a guy we all feel is going to hit and get on base, who will be a real offensive weapon for us more than he already is.
“Maybe he’s ready to take that next step,” he continued. “If he’s not, it’s not going to sink our club. But we’re pretty bullish on Ellsbury long term.”
NO. 2: DUSTIN PEDROIA, 2B
Dustin Pedroia was likely more responsible for the Sox’ position as one of the best offensive clubs than any other player. He led American League second baseman in virtually every offensive category, and did the same among No. 2 hitters in the lineup. His production so vastly exceeded the standards of his position that he earned the American League MVP award.
The question, then, is not whether the second baseman can maintain above average productivity, but whether he can maintain – or perhaps even improve upon – his remarkable early career numbers.
“He’s a guy that’s not going to accept mediocrity—not that he’s experienced much of it,” said Magadan. “He’s not going to get complacent. He’ll find ways to make himself a better player.”
As gaudy as Pedroia’s season-ending stats were (.326 average, .376 OBP, .493 slugging), it is worth noting that he improved over the course of the year. In the second half, he hit .345 with a .402 OBP and .949 OPS. There seems a decent likelihood that he can improve his on-base numbers given the increasing tendency of opponents to pitch around him as the year wore on.
If that happens, then Pedroia could once again achieve a statistically freakish feat, collecting more walks and extra-base hits than strikeouts. (Last year, he walked 50 times but struck out 52.)
“Those are statistics indicative of a guy who drives the ball, knows the strike zone, knows the pitches he can drive,” said Magadan. “When you’re driving the ball into the gaps, getting extra-base hits, and not a guy who strikes out much, you’re a force in the offense.
“He’s a rare bird, man. There’s times when there’s a certain way to get him out a certain way at a certain time of year, but he’s so good at recognizing it, making the adjustment, and either laying off of it or realizing that it’s coming and putting a good swing on it, that’s why he hits what he hits.”
Of course, the rarity of Pedroia also raises a red flag. Because his production is so unusual for his position, no single player’s absence would be felt as starkly as his.
NO. 3: DAVID ORTIZ, DH
David Ortiz proudly likes to describe his approach to hitting as “swinging from my (expletive).” At times last year, after he came back from the partial tear in the tendon sheath of his left wrist, he did not seem willing to turn loose with the same recklessness that he had in the past.
That did not appear to be a problem this spring. Offseason rest permitted Ortiz an opportunity to recuperate and to get peace of mind. Magadan noted that the tentativeness that crept into his approach at the plate last year seemed to be gone.
“I hit before. That’s something you don’t forget,” Ortiz told reporters on Sunday. “It’s totally a different situation when you go to the plate thinking, ‘If I go to the plate and swing, is this going to hurt?’ It’s too much of a thinking thing as opposed to just going up there seeing the ball and hit it.”
Last year, Ortiz played roughly two-thirds of a year. The diminished playing time resulted in his lowest homer and RBI totals of his stories six-year Red Sox career, and he also had his lowest slugging percentage while matching his lowest on-base percentage.
Even so, while there is little question that the slugger was damaged last year, his production was, if not that of a superstar, then still worthy of All-Star level. The Sox enjoyed well above-average production from the D.H. spot, and Ortiz’ offense did nothing to suggest that he was not worthy of the third spot in the lineup.
There is basis to believe that his numbers may rebound in 2009, if not to his 2003-07 levels, then to something nearer to them than 2008, so long as he is healthy.
NO. 4: KEVIN YOUKILIS, 1B
In retrospect, some of the questions about whether Kevin Youkilis is suited for the cleanup spot seem misplaced. Once Team USA selected him to bat fourth during the World Baseball Classic, any doubts about the legitimacy of his stature as a run producer should have vanished.
It would be equally difficult to argue with the notion that the 30-year-old has improved in each of his major-league seasons. Of course, as of now, there’s not a track record that proves definitively that he can be one of the top sluggers in the majors on an annual basis.
That may change with another year or two performing at 2008 levels. Until then, it will remain unclear whether Youkilis can exceed the OPS of the average A.L. cleanup hitter by more than 100 points.
Because Youkilis does not sell out his swing in hopes of generating power, it is conceivable that even if he continues to square the ball, his homer total could drop. That is not to say that he would not remain a dangerous hitter.
“He could just as well hit 15-20 (homers) as he could 30 or 40,” said Jason Varitek. “He may just as well hit 15 homers this year and 40-something doubles. He’s not a prototypical power hitter, but he’s got a good short swing and an ability to cover a lot of pitches with some power. He’s going to hit somewhere around .300, get his walks, have really competitive at-bats.”
NO. 5: J.D. DREW, RF
When the Sox acquired J.D. Drew after the 2006 season, the team noted its need to address a lack of production in right field and in the fifth spot in the batting order. When healthy, Drew certainly delivered on both fronts in 2008, finishing with an OPS more than 100 points ahead of the average right fielder and 150 points ahead of the average five-hole hitter.
Drew out-performed his career OBP, slugging and OPS last year, and at the age of 33, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some decline. The Sox still have reason to believe that their production in right will remain solid, since unlike a year ago, they have a platoon partner for Drew who can improve the lineup against left-handed pitchers.
A left-handed hitter started every game of the season for the Red Sox in right field last year. Drew actually handled the responsibility surprisingly well, hitting .284 with a .426 OBP and .500 slugging mark against southpaws. That, however, was in stark contrast to a career in which he has been far more of a force against right-handers (.924 OPS) than lefties (.797).
Rocco Baldelli gives the Sox something they didn’t have a year ago: a legitimate right-handed threat who is a force against lefties. He hit .292 with an .882 OPS against southpaws with the Rays last year.
In 2008, right field was the position of the greatest average offensive productivity in the A.L. as measured by OBP (.351) and OPS (.809). The Sox cleared those averages handily last year.
Provided that Drew, who has an .886 OPS or better in five of the past six years, remains on the field and does not endure a precipitous decline, the Sox are not off base in anticipating above-average production again at a power-hitting position.
NO. 6: JASON BAY, LF
Jason Bay’s numbers after coming to Boston last year (.293, .370 OBP, .527 slugging, .897 OPS) were very much in line with his steady five-year career as a formidable middle-of-the-order hitter (.282, .375, .516, .891). He has offered reliable production in every season except 2007, when his performance was hindered by a knee injury.
With the Pirates, Bay was a two-time All-Star who hit in the third and fourth spots in the batting order. The fact that he will hit sixth for the Sox underscores the depth of the lineup.
If he nears his career line, the Sox would benefit from production that was well above average from the sixth spot. With his production in 2008, after all, the Sox were able to average 5.8 runs per game after trading Manny Ramirez, almost a full run more than the 4.9 runs they averaged with the future Hall of Famer.
“I think we were hopeful but we weren’t surprised when we scored more runs after Manny got traded,” said Magadan. “I knew the type of player that Jason Bay was. I had him for a little bit in San Diego. I knew what he was going to bring to our offense.”
NO. 7: MIKE LOWELL, 3B
Mike Lowell’s 2008 campaign was difficult to characterize. He required separate trips to the disabled list for a thumb injury and an oblique strain, and in the second half, his hip injury made it a wince-worthy proposition to watch him play.
The injuries were so frequent, in fact, that it is difficult to figure out when his up-and-down season endured valleys due to injury or the natural rhythms of a season. But it is clear that he had two radically different halves. Lowell hit .297 with a .360 OBP and .867 OPS prior to the 2008 All-Star break. In the second half, he hit .225/.286/.642 OPS.
A year ago, he was a roughly average to slightly above average producer for his position, though as a No. 7 hitter, he would have provided the Sox with a relatively potent threat.
This decade, Lowell has produced an above average OPS in eight of nine seasons, including three years in which he was well above average (2003, 2004, 2007). If he is even average while batting seventh – behind the likes of Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew and Bay – he could drive in a significant number of runs from his spot in the order.
That development, however, will depend on his good health, something he was unable to sustain last year. If he is injured, the Sox are likely to suffer in a fashion that they did not a year ago.
Whereas the Sox in 2008 could slide Kevin Youkilis to third and insert Sean Casey – a player with a proven big-league track record – at first, the team does not have that luxury to start the 2009 campaign.
There is nothing in Chris Carter’s (or, down the road, Lars Anderson’s) track record to suggest that he cannot be a legitimate major-league hitter, but young players typically take lumps before they produce. And Mark Kotsay, who should resume his role as the backup first baseman by May, has been below the major-league average OPS in each of the last four years.
NO. 8: JED LOWRIE, SS
A year ago, it seemed that the rotation of Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie and Alex Cora represented an offensive weakness for the Sox. Lugo performed well below his career line for the second straight year, Lowrie suffered while dealing with the effects of injuries down the stretch and Cora was considered a defensive asset with limited abilities at the plate.
It thus might come as something of a surprise to realize that the Sox ranked second in the A.L. in OBP from the position (.358), and that the team’s OPS was fifth among the 14 teams at that spot. Nonetheless, the team has basis to hope for further improvement this year.
The difference in the left-handed swing of the switch-hitting Lowrie this spring was obvious. The improved strength that resulted from a left wrist that had an offseason to heal from a non-displaced fracture permitted him to hit with an authority that was absent in September and the playoffs.
Lowrie and hitting coach Dave Magadan also altered his hand positioning slightly. From the left side last year, Lowrie’s hands were split apart on the bat. This spring, Lowrie joined his upper and lower hands, something that should further help his efforts to generate power.
Lugo, too, showed signs of improvement at the plate before requiring surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee. He showed a more upright stance that left him in a better position to drive the ball than had been the case in his first two years in Boston.
Based on last year’s numbers, average to slightly above-average shortstop production for the Sox is a reasonable baseline expectation. Though the position is not one of the team’s foremost strengths, it is one of the team’s deepest thanks to Lugo and Lowrie.
NO. 9: JASON VARITEK, C
If there was a rally-killing spot in the Red Sox lineup last year, it was from the catcher’s spot. The team’s backstops hit a combined .218 (14th out of 14 A.L. teams) with a .308 OBP (10th) and .650 OPS (13th).
Jason Varitek was primarily responsible for that dismal performance, tumbling to career lows in average (.220), slugging (.359) and OPS (.672) while notching his second worst OBP (.313). Batting right-handed, he hit an even more unsightly .201 with a .616 OPS.
He was so bad, in fact, that it would be nearly impossible for the Sox to get less production from their catchers this year than they did in 2008. On the bright side for the Sox, however, the standards for production among catchers are so low that it is not inconceivable that the team could go from one of the worst at the position to the middle of the pack.
Indeed, if Varitek merely splits the difference between his 2007 and 2008 numbers, he would go from being a dead spot in the lineup to a slightly above average producer. Can it happen?
This spring, there were signs of promise. Varitek hit five homers, all left-handed – almost as many as the eight he hit from the left side of the plate in 2008. The team believes that his simplified swing mechanics and greater willingness to go gap-to-gap as a left-handed hitter may pay dividends.
If Varitek and George Kottaras can offer a relatively modest improvement from Boston's 2008 catchers, the Sox will stand a solid chance at average to above-average production at every position. On paper, that is a blueprint for a formidable team capable of taming even the most difficult division in baseball.
ALEX SPEIER
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Salty spoke with Joe Castiglione & Dave O'Brien after he helped his team to a 6-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox tonight. The Red Sox return to Fenway after going 6-3 on the road trip.
We check in with Red Sox Manager John Farrell live from Chicago and get his take on a good week for the Sox, a tough series since then in Chicago, and other team related notes.
Buster Olney joins Mut and Merloni to talk about the struggling Ellsbury and what that is doing to his contract value when he becomes a free agent.
McGuire joins Mut and Merloni to discuss the Bruins game 3 win, the Rangers awful power play, and the Shawn Thornton Derek Dorsett altercation.
Shawn joined the program to discuss his big night at MSG. He told the guys that it is not Marchand's job to fight and that he needs to be on the ice and out of the penalty box.
Cleveland Indians hottest team in baseball, yet remain last in attendance May 19, 2013 By AJ Kaufman 6 Comments There’s a scene in Major League where Bob Uecker, portraying the radio voice of the Indians, bemoans, “In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.” Well, that was nearly 25 years ago and fictional, but today’s reality is that Cleveland has won 17 of its last 21, and currently tops the AL Central with a mark of 25-17. No one in the majors is better than the Indians in the past month (20-7). That’s great news. The bad news, however, is the Tribe somehow remain in the MLB cellar when it comes to attendance. How can this be? The fact that I wrote on this same topic almost to the day last year – when only Tampa Bay drew fewer fans than Cleveland - may be even more troubling. Though roughly 34,000 watched a walk-off win Friday night against Seattle, perfect weather and free caps weren’t enough to draw more than 36,000 Saturday and Sunday combined. What did the Indians do in those tilts? They nabbed another walk-off win on Saturday, then the Indians crushed the great Felix Hernandez Sunday behind Justin Masterson, arguably the AL’s best pitcher right now. Fun fact: The Indians have already faced eight Cy Young Award winners in 2013: Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, David Price, Justin Verlander and Hernandez. They have won seven out those eight matchups. Simply astounding. This offseason, the much-maligned Indians front office finally made a legitimate attempt to improve the team through free agency. I’m not talking an Ubaldo Jimenez-like trade, but rather smart acquisitions that brought veterans Mike Aviles, Michael Bourn, Jason Giambi, Scott Kazmir, Brett Myers, Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs and Nick Swisher to Cleveland. In addition to being a fantastic place to watch a game due to great egress and ingress, with extremely affordable tickets, the best promo lineup anywhere, Jacobs Field boasts overall, cooler, less muggy summer weather than most Midwestern locales. The team also lowered beer and hot dog prices to $4 and $3 respectively. What other professional stadium in any sport offers that? I have visited 28 of the 30 current Major League Baseball stadia, and few top The Jake when all angles are considered. I say that as a baseball fan, not an Indians fan. As for the putative “economic” angle, these are the same people who spend insane amounts of money to watch terrible football every fall and show up in decent numbers for putrid basketball in the winter. Irrespective of season length, those sports charge up to 10 times the price for a ticket, and the atmosphere isn’t half as fan-friendly as baseball. I understand fans’ lack of willingness to get on board to some degree. A decent recap of Cleveland’s decade of “rebuilding” can be read here and the team suffered a horrific collapse last August. However, in addition to all the benefits of attending games at Jacobs (now Progressive) Field, fans should also realize the team has potential and often exceeds preseason aspirations at any point without warning. Cleveland hosts the rival Detroit Tigers — heavy favorites to repeat as AL Central champs — Tuesday and Wednesday nights before hitting the road. The temperature should be pleasant at first pitch each evening so you’d expect The Jake to be full to watch the best hitter on the planet right now — but don’t count on it.
Terry Francona joins the Dennis and Callahan Show to discuss his first-place Indians team as well as his time in Boston. The former Boston manager also touches on his recent book co-authored by Dan Shaughnessy and Shaughnessy's recent dust-up with David Ortiz.
Shawn joined the program to discuss his big night at MSG. He told the guys that it is not Marchand's job to fight and that he needs to be on the ice and out of the penalty box.
Our afternoon host Mike Salk was offended at Gerry and Kirk's conversation on his favorite band Rush, the guys responded.
McGuire joins Mut and Merloni to discuss the Bruins game 3 win, the Rangers awful power play, and the Shawn Thornton Derek Dorsett altercation.
Buster Olney joins Mut and Merloni to talk about the struggling Ellsbury and what that is doing to his contract value when he becomes a free agent.
Mut and Merloni discuss the Derek Dorsett, Brad Marchand, and Shawn Thornton altercation and how great it was.
With the Bruins up 3-0 in the series, we talk to Jack Edwards and take your calls. We touch on all things B's-Rangers and also focus on the future of the Bruins three promising young defensemen.
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We discuss Spain's Sergio Garcia and his ignorant, racist comments against Tiger Woods.
The Bruins look to take a 3-0 series lead, Jon Lester gets his first loss, Dwight Howard has options in free agency.
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins have a 2-0 lead over the New york Rangers, the Red Sox are back on the winning sde of things, and the noteable birthdays of the day.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
The Jerks are joined by another, Jerk Minihane.
They're like a ray of morning sunshine on an otherwise gloomy day.
....uhhhh.....a bunch of bombs over there....
Linda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showElliotte Friedman joined the show to discuss the Bruins domination of the series thus far. He said that while nothing is certain he cannot see a way in which the Rangers come back and win the series.
More from this showTerry Francona joins the Dennis and Callahan Show to discuss his first-place Indians team as well as his time in Boston. The former Boston manager also touches on his recent book co-authored by Dan Shaughnessy and Shaughnessy's recent dust-up with David Ortiz.
More from this showSteve joined the show to discuss the Rangers and their coach John Tortorella. Steve said that the Bruins have been the far better team thus far in the series.
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