To the Marlins, Jeremy Hermida’s 2009 disappointment rendered the outfielder an unaffordable luxury. To the Red Sox, Jeremy Hermida’s not-so-distant past meant that the outfielder represented an affordable lottery ticket with at least a chance to offer a tidy jackpot.
The 11th overall pick of the 2002 draft had stardom written all over his amateur and minor league careers. He showed an advanced approach at the plate, a precocious ability to control the strike zone and the potential for significant power.
Then, in 2007, he showed every indication that he could translate all of those traits to the major league level. As a 23-year-old, he won an everyday job with the Marlins by hitting .296 with a .369 OBP, .501 slugging mark, .870 OPS and 18 homers after a mid-May call-up.
To put those numbers in context, one need only look at the superstar-laden list of the 11 outfielders this decade with an OBP of at least .350 and an OPS of .800 or better by the time they turned 23 (min. 400 plate appearances). Especially considering the cavernous park in which Hermida made his home, the achievement was immense.
But rather than build upon that immense promise, Hermida regressed over the past two years. In 2008-09, he hit a combined .253/.335/.400/.734, and whereas he hit one homer in every 23.8 at-bats as a 23-year-old, he hit just one for every 31 at-bats over the last two years. In 2009, he had a line of .259/.348/.392/.740.
In the process, he frustrated the Marlins, as Florida G.M. Larry Beinfest said yesterday that Hermida "had a lot of opportunity here. ... The expectation was for more." Another National League talent evaluator said that while the outfielder "still has potential" with solid on-base skills and decent power, his low-energy approach is bothersome.
After making $2.25 million in 2009, Hermida — who is eligible for salary arbitration — likely will make a bit more than $3 million from a team that tenders him a contract for 2010.
The Marlins couldn’t take the risk of carrying such a contract for a player without a defined role. The Sox can afford that risk, particularly if it has a chance of paying off with a player whose upside — in a best-case scenario, even if not a most-likely one — is that of a J.D. Drew/Brian Giles-type of outfielder.
He could benefit from a change of scenery, not only because that can sometimes help a player whose development has stalled, but also because he has done much better away from Land Shark Stadium (.276/.359/.456/.815) than in it (.253/.328/.393/.721).
“Hermida is a player who hasn't fulfilled his potential yet and we acquired him today for a reasonable cost to see if he might be able to fulfill that potential with us,” said Sox general manager Theo Epstein. “Certainly, this was a good time to acquire him when his value was a little bit low and see if [in a] change of scenery he might be able to fulfill his potential.
“He’s about to turn 26 [and] move into his prime years. Sometimes talented young players who have struggled in the big leagues level put it all together and sometimes they don’t. When you have a chance to acquire one for what we deem to be a very reasonable cost, we think that’s the type of move that makes sense.”
The acquisition cost was relatively low. The Marlins had to deal Hermida, to whom they could not afford to tender a contract, and so the Sox were able to get the 25-year-old (he turns 26 on Jan. 30) for minor leaguers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez.
Jones was one of the great scouting finds in the Red Sox organization, an undrafted free agent whom scouting director Jason McLeod saw on the Cape and brought into the Sox system for $35,000. He completed a remarkable and unlikely journey by reaching the majors this year.
But even though Jones is a strike-thrower with good deception and plane on his fastball, he has yet to develop a consistent breaking pitch that would allow him to be a real contributor in the Red Sox bullpen. He also didn’t prove particularly effective against lefties.
And so, with Dustin Richardson (recently named an All-Star in the Arizona Fall League) having passed him on the organization’s left-handed depth chart, he became a replaceable part who could be moved. For Jones (who has one option remaining), the opportunity is potentially an excellent one, as he gets to audition for a bullpen role with a Marlins franchise that is close to his hometown.
The 20-year-old Alvarez enjoyed spectacular numbers this year with Single-A Lowell, going 8-3 with a 1.52 ERA, 63 strikeouts and just 10 walks in 83 innings before a promotion to High-A Salem, where he had a 4.74 ERA in a dozen relief appearances. Alvarez is a strike thrower, but at least as of now, he does not have a plus pitch in his arsenal to make the Sox hesitate to deal him and take a chance on Hermida.
As of now, it is almost impossible to predict what role Hermida might play on the 2010 Red Sox. With Jason Bay having filed for free agency on Thursday, the Sox’ starting outfield for next year remains unknown.
If the Sox re-sign Bay or acquire another regular to take his spot, Hermida could emerge as a backup corner outfielder and DH. It is also possible that he could play a larger role — especially against right-handed pitchers — if the Sox cannot come to terms with Bay or acquire another star outfielder.
In a year, or three, the acquisition of Hermida may be a forgotten moment in one offseason. Even so, there is at least a chance that it is something more than that. In the end, it was a chance that made sense for the Sox.
“This was not a blockbuster,” Epstein said. “This was a value trade, a chance to get a guy with unfulfilled potential for a reasonable cost.”
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