For nearly three years now, J.D. Drew’s contract has been alternately viewed as the subject of ridicule and befuddlement. Yet for the Red Sox, there is one thing that the five-year, $70 million deal is not: an object of regret.
For reasons that Drew and the Red Sox recognize as beyond their control, the right fielder’s game is subject to incredible scrutiny. Perhaps it is the unchanging demeanor that is interpreted as indifference, the absence of visible eruptions, the willingness to take a walk in a key situation or the time out of the lineup with injuries that would not keep other players off the field.
All of those elements surely play into the notion — popularized by some damning comments from Cardinals manager Tony La Russa about Drew’s indifference to his talent — that Drew is not worth what he is paid. The notion is widespread among fans, media members and even rival talent evaluators. It is still commonplace for scouts or executives of other clubs to scoff at the deal that Drew signed with the Sox three winters ago.
The biggest problem with that perspective, however, is that it has nothing to do with what Drew actually does on the field, or, for that matter, with the perception of the people who are paying Drew’s paychecks. To this point, the Sox insist, Drew has been worth everything that he’s been paid, and then some.
“What he’s done qualitatively and when you even factor in the amount he’s played over these three years, yeah, he’s come out to a tick more than $14 million per year,” Sox general manager Theo Epstein said in an interview on the Dennis & Callahan Show on Thursday. “There’s always been a descrepency between how valuable a player he is and how he’s viewed by a certain element of the fan base, and the media in particular.
“There’s been a lot of strides in the game in terms of how people properly value players based on more meaningful statistics. Drew is sort of a touchstone so to speak for that because you actually look at the underlying performance and things that really matter as far as winning games and not winning games, he’s been over the length of the contract one of the 10 most valuable outfielders in baseball. Over the last two years I think he’s been one of the top two or three in the league, and this past year, again, one of the top two or three most valuable outfielders in the American League.”
At first glance, the notion seems improbable. But so long as home runs and RBI (more on that stat in a bit) are not viewed as the be-all, end-all of valuing a player’s contributions, the framework of the argument for Drew’s value becomes apparent.
OFFENSE
THE ON-BASE MACHINE
Based on offense alone, Drew has been one of the elite outfielders in the majors since arriving in Boston. Whether evaluating him over the last year (.392), last two years (.399) or last three years (.390), Drew ranks fourth among major league outfielders (meaning players who have spent at least 50 percent of their games in the outfield) in OBP.
Drew’s knowledge of the strike zone also permits him to be an extra-base threat. Though he is not a slugger in the traditional sense of a 30-plus home run hitter, his 24 longballs were a more than respectable total in 2009, particularly considering that he went deep with roughly the same frequency (once every 18.8 at-bats) as Kevin Youkilis (every 18.2 ABs) and David Ortiz (once per 19.3 ABs).
Drew, in fact, is coming off of a great season that managed to fly almost completely below the radar. His OBP was slightly better than that of Jason Bay (.392 to .384), and his slugging mark (.537 to .522) was only slightly worse.
Down the stretch, he was as good as anyone in the Sox’ lineup, or Major League Baseball. From July 26 through the end of the regular season, Drew hit .360 with a .458 OBP and 1.157 OPS, one of the best sustained stretches of his career. During that 53-game stretch, he walloped 12 homers.
In 2009, he ranked second among American League outfielders (defined as players who spent at least half their games in the field, thus ruling out Adam Lind) in OPS, and fourth in the majors. Over the last two
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