Few free agents in major-league history have ever offered the kind of value on the dollar of Tim Wakefield. According to the excellent resource fangraphs.com, which looks at the totality of a player’s statistics and assigns a value to it, Wakefield’s performance has been “worth” roughly $70 million since 2002 (the earliest season charted by the site), or roughly $40 million than he’s earned in that time.
Clearly, he has been one of the foremost bargains in baseball for several years. Certainly, there have been few free-agent pitchers to ever offer the kind of return that he’s delivered.
Yet one can make a case that he is not the top free-agent signing in Red Sox history. Here is one person’s list of the top 10 Red Sox free-agent signings since the advent of the modern free-agent era in 1976. Send omissions, observations, kudos or hate-filled invective to aspeier@weei.com.
1) David Ortiz
Signed one-year, $1.25 million contract in Jan. 2003
Red Sox Earnings: Has made approximately $53 million to date
Performance: According to fangraphs.com, he has been worth approximately $100 million to date
It takes a special, special free agent to be a better free-agent value than Tim Wakefield. Miraculously, the Red Sox would appear to have one on their roster. Though Ortiz has spent less than half the time that Wakefield has in Boston, there just haven’t been other players on the market who have done the types of things he’s done: five top-five A.L. MVP finishes, 243 homers (an average of 43 per 162 games), 777 RBIs (136 per 162 games), five All-Star appearances, three postseason walkoff hits…
One can make a compelling case that Ortiz has been not merely a better free-agent signing than Wakefield, but the greatest free-agent signing of all time.
2) Tim Wakefield
Signed one-year deal for major-league minimum in April 1995
Red Sox Earnings: Approximately $49 million to date
Performance: According to fangraphs.com, he has been worth more than $70 million since 2002 alone, a time during which he has made a bit more than $32 million.
He’s outperformed his contracts by almost $40 million in the last eight years, and surely by tens of millions more dollars in his first seven years with the Sox (for which Fangraphs does not have data).
Given his steadiness through the years, it is remarkable to think that many wanted to see his tenure in the Red Sox rotation come to a grinding halt prior to the start of this year. There is little doubt that his league-leading 11 wins this year reflect some good fortune, but he’s been what he’s always been: a consistent, above-average performer.
He is now 175-148 with a 4.33 ERA for the Sox, with an ERA+ of 110 (meaning an ERA of roughly 10 percent better than average). There is remarkable value in that, particularly given his reliable innings contributions over the years.
3) Manny Ramirez
Signed eight-year, $160 million deal in Dec. 2000
Red Sox earnings: $160 million (Sox paid all, even though Ramirez was traded last July 31)
Performance: According to Fangraphs, from 2002 through last July, he performed at the level of a $98.6 million player during the regular season, but was paid $134.2 million.
Based on performance alone, he might be at the top of the list. But his massive, payroll-choking contract and the occasional, well, weirdness cut into the payoff. He probably wasn’t worth $20 million a year for the life of the contract – if he had been, the Sox wouldn’t have tried to trade or waive him every year – but the fact that the contract wasn’t entirely dead weight is, in its own way, remarkable.
Ramirez had five top-10 A.L. MVP finishes as a member of the Sox. He hit .312 with a .411 OBP and .588 slugging mark, and an OPS+ of 155. He hit 274 homers with 868 RBIs as a member of the Sox. He gets bonus points for huge postseason contributions in 2004 and 2007 (something not accounted for in Fangraphs) and having facilitated the acquisition of Jason Bay.
4) Bill Mueller
Signed two-year, $4.2 million deal with $2.5 million team option in Jan. 2003
Red Sox earnings: $6.7 million
Performance: According to Fangraphs, he was worth $32.7
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