The worst bit of Patriots news since you-know-who got hurt eight minutes into the season came down Sunday night.
Yes, the Adalius Thomas arm injury is an absolute killer.
It’s much worse than the Rodney Harrison season-ender because, with all due respect, the young guys in the secondary were going to be more important down the stretch anyway. Stephen Neal's back and forth also hasn't been a huge deal, in my opinion, because the Pats have some decent depth inside and he's only a guard after all. Sammy Morris' knee injury has certainly had an impact, but no back-up running back is going to make or break a season. Laurence Maroney? Please.
Thomas is different. He and Richard Seymour have been the Pats' best players on defense this season (they are tied for the team lead in sacks with five) and if the Pats were to survive their thin, inexperienced secondary, Thomas and Seymour would have been reasons 1 and 1A. Thomas was a playmaker on a defense that lacks them, frankly, and with him gone, you have to wonder how much more attention Seymour is going to see. The pressure is now on everyone to pick up the slack, starting with Mike Vrabel, who is still feeling the effects of an offseason shoulder procedure and has been playing on the right side of the defense as a result. He normally plays on the left. We’ll see where he lines up on Thursday. Meanwhile, we’ll also see just what Pierre Woods has got. It's hard to get around the fact that the injury means there are going to be plays where Deltha O'Neal, Ellis Hobbs, Mike Richardson or Jonathan Wilhite is going to have to cover their man for an extra count -- and I think we all know how's that's going to turn out.
Prior to Thomas' injury, this is what I felt the best-case (plausible) scenario was for the Pats: Win 11 games and claim the AFC East, earning either a home wild card game against a beatable opponent or, with some luck, a first-round bye. Then get into the divisional round and catch lightning in a bottle. Play steady on offense and make a big play or two on defense. Repeat the formula in the conference title game. And so on. I may be out of my mind, but I still had Super Bowl week cleared in my calendar just in case.
Now I’m thinking I won’t need it. The Pats have been playing with a slim margin for error ever since Tom Brady went down, and that margin has just been squeezed even tighter. They were going to need some big individual plays in some big games – and now they have one less player capable of doing it. You can only lose so many of those guys.
A quick word on Ty Law going to the Jets. What fun. I just can’t see how he’ll be able to play effectively on Thursday, but just the mere fact the Jets would wait until Monday of this week to make the move has to put a smile on your face. God, these teams just can’t leave each other alone. Pray that we see Randy Moss vs. Law for at least a play.
Send thoughts to mfelger@weei.com and we'll chat in Thursday's mailbag. On to the grades...
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QUARTERBACK – B
This wasn't Matt Cassel's best game, but it was still a step in the right direction because he continued to do many of the things that have brought him success recently. What stood out was his accuracy along the sidelines (he wasn’t as effective down the field). He also made plays with his legs, which is nothing new, while also pulling up a few times and delivering the ball from the edge of the pocket. He had one fatal reversion to his bad habits of yesteryear, but more often than not he did the right thing.
That certainly was the case on the opening drive, when he recognized the Bills had left the middle wide open and bolted up the gut for a 13-yard touchdown run. He did nearly the exact same thing on the next drive, picking up nine yards to convert a third-and-4 situation. On the very next play, Cassel threw a gorgeous, 19-yard laser to Randy Moss along the sidelines. There was another pinpoint ball to Moss in the second quarter for nine yards. There were a few nice ones to Wes Welker as well, including a 27-yarder in the second quarter and a terrific 12-yarder to convert a second-and-10 in the fourth quarter. Those were mostly pocket throws that came with good protection, but Cassel also did the job when the protection broke down, such as on his 12-yard hookup with Welker on a roll to the right on the Pats' first third-down conversion of the second half. He did it again on the second drive of the third quarter, rolling right on third-and-two, but stopping this time at the tackle box and hitting Jabar Gaffney over the middle for a gain of 12. Good stuff.
Cassel took some deep shots to Randy Moss but couldn’t quite connect. They almost had a long one at the beginning of the third quarter, but Terrence McGee got his hand into Moss as the ball arrived. Cassel earlier underthrew Moss in the end zone and later in the fourth quarter overthrew him. That's the deal with those low-percentage throws. Encouragingly, Cassel started to use some of his other receivers. He got Sam Aiken the ball a couple of times, including on a 19-yard deep slant on third-and-9 in the fourth quarter with Moss on the bench.
Now for the negatives. Cassel got rid of the ball too slowly on a first-possession corner route to Welker and was lucky to convert the play when officials ruled Welker had come down in bounds (he didn't) and the Bills' coaches couldn't get the refs to notice their challenge flag. He also threw behind Kevin Faulk in the second quarter when the Pats needed a few more yards for Stephen Gostkowski (he missed the subsequent 49-yarder). But Cassel’s worst play, by far, came in the fourth quarter when he morphed into bad Matt (or, Old Cassel) when he tucked the ball under his arm to run, even though he had time in the pocket, then changed his mind and wound up to throw, only to be throttled by Marcus Stroud and lose the ball. Cassel has done a terrific job limiting those kinds of mistakes recently, so the hope is that the play was simply an aberration, not a sign of backsliding.
RUNNING BACKS -- A-
Not to be a pill (or a douche bag, jerk-week, loser putz), but I think folks need to calm down about BenJarvus Green-Ellis. He had a nice game and he's certainly done more than most of us expected him to. But I still think he's pretty limited as a player. He doesn't really make people miss and he doesn't really run through tackles. He's not particularly big, fast or elusive, which explains why he wasn't drafted. Against Buffalo (105 yards with a touchdown and a 4.0 average), he mostly took what the defense gave him. But, hey, that's half the battle. I'm just being negative. He's a success story. More than anything, his play further reinforces the fact that running backs can be found anywhere. You don't need to spend big money or high draft picks to get one.
If you want to see someone make people miss, watch Faulk. He did it to Bills' linebacker Keith Ellison early in the third quarter on a run that went for six yards. Faulk also stepped up his game in blitz-pickup, chipping linebacker Kawika Mitchell on Aiken's big 19-yard gain in the fourth. Finally, Heath Evans had a good day blocking for Green-Ellis, especially on a 12-yard run in the third quarter in which he flattened corner Terrence McGee and Green-Ellis followed through the opening.
RECEIVERS – B
Not a particularly special day catching the ball, although the blocking from the tight ends was very good. The stat sheet showed Wes Welker with 10 more catches (he's on pace for 117 on the year, which would beat his own team record by five) and Moss with five grabs for 53 yards. Moss had a chance to make a few great catches but couldn’t bring the ball in against tight coverage. Other times he seemed to have the secondary beat but Cassel couldn't get him the ball. Give Moss credit for hanging in the game, however. He was drilled on the Pats' first offensive play by safety Ko Simpson (Moss just missed the high, catchable ball but wound up drawing a 15-yard penalty) and later aggravated a foot injury that has slowed him recently. But he still kept lining up and running down field. Aiken stepped up on one of the occasions when Moss had go to the sidelines for a blow, as his nice diving catch over the middle set the stage for the Pats' 19-play drive in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Jabar Gaffney's play was a mixed bag. His block-in-the-back penalty wiped out a 10-yard Cassel scramble in the second quarter and probably took points off the board. In the second half, Gaffney slid short of the stakes on one reception and also dropped an easy crossing route, deflecting the ball up into the air in the middle of the Buffalo defense and nearly costing his quarterback an interception. On the positive side, Gaffney did catch four balls for 36 yards, including a key 10-yard gain over the middle on a play in which the Bills basically conceded the underneath yardage. Finally, as mentioned above, Ben Watson and David Thomas consistently held up players on the edge in the running game while contributing to pass protection.
OFFENSIVE LINE – A
This was a great day for the men up front. They did everything, from pass protecting in the spread offense, to opening up holes in the running game, to giving Cassel huge amounts of time in the play-action game. The center of the pocket was usually firm despite the presence of stud defensive tackle Marcus Stroud and the outside of the pocket was well formed with Bills’ pass defensive end Aaron Schobel out with injury. You can’t have a huge possession advantage like the Pats did (37:40-22:20) and not get great play up front.
Specifics? The line dominated on the first play of the second half, as center Dan Koppen, guard Stephen Neal and tackle Nick Kaczur all blocked down from the right side, and with Ben Watson holding up his man on the outside, Green-Ellis was able to waltz through the hole for five yards. A few plays later the line gave Cassel plenty of time to find Moss over the middle for 11 yards on third-and-7. Kaczur was the key guy on Green-Ellis' 12-yard gainer on third-and-1. Matt Light, coming across on the pull, had the key block on Green-Ellis' 11-yard gain to close out the third quarter. Early in the fourth, the line did a great job giving Cassel the time he needed to find Aiken for the big 19-yarder. Matt Light (along with Evans and Thomas) had the blocks to collapse the edge on a 13-yard Green-Ellis run later on that drive.
The bad news came at right guard, where Neal left in the third quarter and was replaced by Russ Hochstein. That leads us to one of the line’s rare failures. It came on a third-and-1 play midway through the third quarter when Stroud burst into the backfield past Hochstein and dropped Green-Ellis for a three-yard loss. Hochstein was solid in the fourth quarter along with his mates. The strip sack of Cassel wasn’t the fault of the line, as the pocket was well-formed and Cassel had the time to unload the ball. He just didn’t take advantage of it. That was on him.
DEFENSIVE LINE – A-
Is it possible to have a bad tackling game yet still have a good overall game? If so, then the Pats’ effort up front qualified. The tone was set early when Seymour beat left guard Derrick Dockery past his outside shoulder and thundered in on Edwards for a sack. Vince Wilfork was active at the point of attack, blowing up the hole on one run in the third quarter and teaming with Mike Vrabel to bring down Lynch for a loss of two yards. Wilfork later had a big, clean hit of Edwards on an incomplete. Ty Warren led the team with seven tackles and had one of the biggest plays of the game when he sacked Edwards for a six-yard loss to blunt a Bills’ drive that had reached the Pats’ 36. The tackling problems showed up in the second quarter, with some coming against the wildcat formation. Warren originally greeted the wildcat with a hard takedown of Fred Jackson after just a four-yard gain, but then Wilfork whiffed on Jackson for five yards and Green missed Marshawn Lynch for another five yards as the Bills moved into field goal range. Then Wilfork and Warren couldn't find the handle on Lynch on another wildcat run that gained six yards. Seymour got into the act in the fourth quarter, twice failing to bring down Lynch behind the line after getting into the Bills' backfield. Warren put an end to those problems when he dismissed tackle Kirk Chambers and blasted Edwards for the sack.
Finally, we have a question to ask: Why is Seymour on the sidelines for some select third-down plays? In the first half, Seymour had a sack of Edwards, another hit on the quarterback and third play in which he drew the jumpy Bills’ line offsides – yet he was still standing on the bench at some key junctures. When Seymour is firing on all cylinders like he is now, it just seems odd that you would keep the Ferrari in the garage.
LINEBACKER – B+
Mike Vrabel seems to be coming on a bit, which is fortunate given the Thomas injury. He had a very good play in run force in the second quarter, stringing out a Lynch run for a loss of three yards on third-and-4. He also had an eventful third quarter, covering Jackson well on an incomplete in the flat and later on that same drive going badly offsides. There was more good stuff from Jerod Mayo, who took advantage of a gap in protection on the first series by throttling Edwards just as he released the ball for an incomplete. His ability in the passing game has been his biggest positive since training camp, and that showed up in the fourth quarter when he batted away a ball to Robert Royal to get the Pats off the field on third down. The ‘backers played key role in the run defense, which held Lynch to just 46 yards on 14 carries and the Bills as a team to just 60 yards. A good example of the run defense came in the first quarter, when Tedy Bruschi defeated the block of fullback Corey McIntyre in the hole and then dropped Jackson for a one-yard gain. Finally, give Thomas a lot of credit for staying on the field after breaking his arm on a short pass to Jackson in the first quarter. Thomas gutted it out and played well into the second quarter before finally calling uncle.
SECONDARY – A-
Sure, the Pats’ possession game limited the Bills to just 43 offensive plays and just 25 pass plays (23 attempts; two sacks). And, yes, the front seven got after it on a windy day. So you can say the secondary was protected about as much as possible, but the production was still there. The Bills never completed a pass longer than 15 yards despite having one of the best deep threats in the game in Lee Evans. Evans finished with just two catches for 22 yards, with none coming in the first half. Edwards finished with a quarterback rating of 49.2. He netted just 120 yards. The Pats picked off two of his passes. What more do you want?
Hobbs gratefully collected Edwards’ first gift, a badly overthrown ball to Evans on a deep slant in the first quarter. Evans had gotten inside position on Hobbs and would have been in line for the catch had Edwards put it on target. Instead, he airmailed it and Hobbs was there to collect the mistake. And for all the plays Deltha O'Neal gave up, he was able to bait Edwards into another pick in the third quarter. Also give Jason Webster credit for a good open field tackle on James Hardy at the end of the second quarter to help keep the Bills out of field goal range.
On the negative side, Brandon Meriweather whiffed on Roscoe Parrish to allow an early first down. O'Neal also gave too much room to Evans on the outside for a 15-yard gain to pick up third-and-12 in the third quarter, a play that had Dick Enberg invoking the adjective “delicious.” Okay, Dick. O'Neal also gave up a 15-yard reception to Steve Johnson at the end of the second quarter and got out-muscled by Hardy on the Bills' lone, garbage-time score. We didn’t see much of safeties James Sanders and Meriweather (two tackles apiece), which in this case was a good thing.
SPECIAL TEAMS – C
The wind was a big factor in the kicking game, although the Pats couldn’t use that as an excuse on Leodis McKelvin’s 85-yard kickoff return in the fourth quarter. The wind certainly did affect Gostkowski and the rest of the kickers when they were going towards the lighthouse. That’s where Gostkowski yanked his kickoff out of bounds and pulled the 49-yard field goal attempt. The punting was good on both sides, with four of the five punts by the stellar Brian Moorman being downed inside the 20 and both of Chris Hanson’s attempts ending inside the 20 as well.
COACHING – A-
The Pats coaches showed good versatility in this one, starting the game in the spread offense intent to throw but ending up churning up the clock on the ground. And on defense they were obviously focused on not letting Evans beat them down the field, but that didn’t prevent some looks with Meriweather in the box against the run. The one quibble you can have is that the play-callers aren’t exactly giving the offense the best chance to score from the red zone. Take the Pats first series of the second half. The Pats drove to the Bills’ 19, where they faced a third-and-2. A Green-Ellis run netted nothing and Gostkowski came on for the field goal. In fact, the last pass on that drive (an 11-yard in-cut to Moss) brought the ball to the Bills' 48. The next five plays were runs. It’s sort of hard to blame Cassel for not getting into the end zone when the coaches don’t put the ball in the air.
THREE UP
Offensive line – Dominant in all phases.
Ty Warren – A beast against the run and a factor on the rush.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Doing his job.
THREE DOWN
Jabar Gaffney – Didn’t exactly bounce back with glory from his big drop in Indy.
Deltha O’Neal – Puts the “off” in off-corner.
Kickoff team – Let one get away from them.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH…
While you may quibble with some of the Pats’ play-calling, or you may have some residual second-guessing of Belichick from the Colts game, Sunday was yet another example of how, more often than not, it’s the opposing coach who you’ll be second-guessing afterwards. In other words, this was not a strong day for Dick Jauron. It started early, when Welker clearly stepped out of bounds before securing his 21-yard reception. After letting several seconds go by, Jauron finally dropped the red challenge flag on the field. The only problem was that the Pats were about to snap the ball and the officials weren’t paying attention. Jauron needed to heave it, but all he could manage was a dainty, girly-man drop. It was almost as if he didn’t want anyone to see it. And you thought the Pats’ play-calling was conservative? Trailing 10-0 in the second quarter, the Bills had a first-and-goal at the Pats 10, and they proceeded to run the ball three straight times for a net of three yards. Did the Bills not bother to scout the Pats secondary?
Michael Felger can be seen nightly on Comcast Sportsnet and is a regular contributor for WEEI.com. He can be reached at mfelger@weei.com.
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