The issue isn’t whether Tom Brady will return to greatness in 2009. He’s too talented, too driven and surrounded by too much talent for that not to happen. Besides, the recent history is pretty definitive. If quarterbacks like Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Philip Rivers can come back and perform at a high level with reconstructed knees, then Brady can obviously do it, too.
Brady will be at the top of the league again. Write it down.
The question is when he will get there.
There's no doubt that medical science/chemistry has advanced to the point where recovery from major knee surgeries has never been quicker. Rivers played the 2007 AFC title game in Foxboro with a torn ACL (a statement of toughness, by the way, that didn’t get nearly the play it deserved; if Kevin Garnett is a warrior, then what is Rivers?) and then returned in 2008 and had a career year. Palmer also got hurt in the playoffs and was back by the first week of the ensuing regular season. So even with the setbacks Brady experienced, he has always had a good chance of being back on the field.
Yet the rust on Brady’s game and the stiffness in his left leg we saw at last week’s open practice was a reminder that Brady is not a super hero. I think it’s expecting an awful lot for him to snap back into place like Plastic Man and be the guy who threw for 50 touchdown passes in Week 1 and then just stay at that level all season. That’s what many fans are thinking right now, and it’s probably a reach. It’s going to be a process, and last week was merely another step along the way.
Brady acknowledged as much.
"Thank God the season is a few months away,'' he said. "We need the work and I need the work. I think everybody realizes when you come out after four months off there is a lot of work for us to do.
"I will take every day that I have. Believe me, I'll take every day.''
As friend Bert Breer recently pointed out, while guys like Palmer and McNabb returned to form, their comebacks were hardly seamless. McNabb took a huge number of sacks his first full season back from ACL surgery and Palmer also went down an inordinate amount of time early in his return season. Their final season stats made it look like the two didn’t miss a beat, but that’s just not the case.
As Palmer told Breer, there's a mental hurdle that has to be overcome. "You have to get over being uneasy about people being down around your feet and feeling like you need to step out of the way to protect yourself," he said. I would contend that this part of the equation is a bigger part of Brady's game than just about any other quarterback you can mention. We all know he isn't mobile, but Brady's knack for alluding pressure in the pocket, holding the ball and making that one extra step, usually forward, is one of the things that make him a Hall of Famer. Take that away, and he's a different guy.
Again, I believe he'll get it back eventually. But he's human. He got hurt on a play in which he held the ball and stepped up in the pocket. How can that not be in his mind early next year?
I also think Peyton Manning's 2008 season is worth noting. Coming off a minor knee procedure that resulted in an infection similar to the one that befell Brady, Manning was clearly affected early last year. Over the first seven games, he threw nine interceptions against just 10 touchdown passes, as the Colts got off to a 3-4 start. Manning eventually turned it around, with the Colts' early November win over the Pats and their porous pass defense sending them on the way to a nine-game winning streak. Over those final nine games, Manning threw just three interceptions against 17 touchdowns. He also regained his pocket presence as the season wore on. Manning was sacked nine times in the first five games. He went down just five times in the final 11 weeks.
So Manning eventually returned to elite status. It just took time. (Brady's personal throwing guru, Tom Martinez, certainly thinks that this season, in the early going, Brady will look like Manning did at the start of this past season. Check out what he told our Christopher Price back on January.)
Maybe Brady will round into form quicker. Maybe he'll be a bit slower. No one knows. But this you can take to the bank: the Pats' early season opponents in 2009 are going to put as much traffic at his feet as they can and make him prove he's cleared that hurdle. The Jets, who ranked seventh in the NFL in sacks last season, will show no mercy in Week 2. The Ravens and their hard-charging defense come calling in Week 4. Then there's a trip to Denver, where Josh McDaniels will attack Brady with reams of inside information. In Week 6 it's a visit by the chippy Titans followed by a long, overseas flight to London in Week 7 to take on Tampa.
If Brady is on pace for 50 touchdown passes after that slate, then he is, in fact, a super hero. Get him a cape.
Until then, let's see him dodge a few speeding bullets before we assume he can leap tall buildings.
Catch Felger on ``Sports Sunday,'' Sundays at 10 p.m. on Comcast Sportsnet. Reach him at mfelger@weei.com
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