Five quick thoughts from Thursday night…

1. What do we make of Matt Cassel? I’m still not sure if he’s an every week start, but he’s inching closer. 462 yards of total offense with three TD passes (I don’t expect he’ll rush for 60+ yards again)? If you own Cassel pick and choose the rest of the way. I don’t think he’s a great start the next two weeks (at Miami and home vs. Pittsburgh) but Cassel has two strong matchups during Weeks 15 and 16 (fantasy playoffs in most leagues) with a trip to Oakland and a home battle vs. the Cardinals. 

2. How many owners have already dropped BenJarvus Green-Ellis (two carries, nine yards)? The return of Sammy Morris (five carries, 14 yards) was a total non-factor. The only Patriots running back I have any confidence in is Kevin Faulk, who produced 87 total yards in the game. He was also the only RB to catch a pass last night, hauling in four balls for 49 yards. In a PPR league Faulk is a safe bet for 12-14 points per week and by far the strongest play out of the New England backfield.

3. Anyone have Dustin Keller and Ben Watson (killer fumble) catching eight passes each? Keller is for real, an every-week start and I think a potential top five TE in 2009 drafts. I’m leery (not Mitch Leery, who suffered the most comical demise in TV history) of Watson, who had 11 catches heading into last night. I think the combination of a 24-6 deficit and an opposing defense that clearly was focused on stopping Moss and Welker were the keys of Watson’s success. If he catches four passes in a game for the rest of the season I’d be surprised.

4. The only two must starts each week for the Pats remain Welker and Moss (I'll actually add Gostkowski to that list). Welker was Welker in the loss to the Jets, catching seven passes for 108 yards. Moss’ spectacular TD grab (if that was ruled incomplete, does it get overturned?) bailed out owners who endured another mediocre night for the wideout, who finished with just three catches for 26 yards. Just have to stick with Moss and hope for 70-80 yards and a TD. Stop looking at him as your first-round pick (Bernard Pollard destroyed the value of two first rounders with one hit) and view him as a solid flex play for the rest of the season.

5. A couple of quick Jets notes:

Has Thomas Jones (on pace for 1,366 rushing yards) secured a spot in the first round of 2009 drafts? I think I’ll pass on him if he’s going that high (31-year-old running backs coming off career years usually aren’t great value), but someone will grab him. He’ll be a clear-cut No. 1 back with (unless he gets injured) four straight 1,110-yard seasons. He catches the ball a little and finds the end zone (nine rushing scores in 2008. With seven, nine and six TDs in 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively, I think we can officially declare his one TD season in 2007 a fluke.)

Favre played well last night, but to me he’s still a matchup guy, part of that second-tier group. Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner and a healthy Tony Romo are the only every-week, no-doubt starts out there. (Rest of the second tier? Aaron Rodgers, both Mannings (though Peyton is close to that first group) Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. Cassel is not on that level.) I look at it this way: the Jets travel to Tennessee next week. Do you have any faith in Favre in that spot? Seems ripe for a “16-31, 188 yards and two picks” line. But you’d start Brees or Warner there. I guess that’s the difference between top and second tier.

E-MAIL OF THE WEEK

I'm 7-3 in my league and I'm thinking it's time to start planning for the playoffs. What matchups do you like in Weeks 15 and 16 (I need an RB--bad.)? (I know it seems arrogant to assume I’ll make the playoffs—am I jumping the gun?)

Daniel

Effingham, Illinois

I think we are there, Daniel. Look, if you have seven or eight wins at this point of the fantasy season you are getting in the playoffs. If I’m charge of an 8-2 or 7-3 squad I put all my focus on Week 15 and 16 matchups.  If that means picking up a guy who will only be of use in one of those weeks, do it.  If you look at your roster it’s highly unlikely that you NEED every player on there. I’m thinking that Felix Jones (owned in 58 percent of Yahoo! leagues) or Edgerrin James (54 percent of leagues, two total carries over the last two weeks) can be dropped at this point.

A couple of examples of starts that could land a playoff win:

Joseph Addai (RB, Colts):

We know that Addai has been “Adventures of Pluto Nash” awful this season (just 282 yards rushing, a 3.1 YPC and only nine catches). If you used a first-round pick on him I’m sure you’d trade him today for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and two hyphens to be named later.  During my weekly radio spot with Bradford and Mutnansky last week I advocated benching Addai (and a good call it was-- 12 carries, 34 yards. Can I get a Marconi for that?) So why am I calling out Addai as a potential star in fantasy playoff action?

Two sweet words: Detroit Lions. The Colts host the Lions in Week 15. Detroit is 31st vs. the rush this season (and 29th vs. the pass. So Peyton Manning is a go that week as well.), allowing 161 yards per game. So this isn’t a pro-Addai argument. If you have roster flexibility I’d pick up Dominic Rhodes just in case he’s the starter that week. You have to figure that the Colts will be right in the middle of the wild-card chase, so resting their starters will not be an option. I like Addai for 120 total yards of offense and a TD.

New England (Week 15), Houston (Week 16) Defenses:

I’m not expecting you to use a pair of roster spots on defenses for games a month from now. Just keep an eye on these two, however, because they could rack up huge points vs. an Oakland offense that is dead last in passing (139 YPG) and points scored (113).

Kirk Minihane, WEEI.com Contributor, is the resident Fantasy Football expert for WEEI.com.