Here’s what Sunday’s 27-17 win over the Dolphins means for the Patriots.
It’s OK to take a look at the big picture again. First time since the season started when that feels safe, I know. But take a look.
For starters, you can book a playoff spot. In ink, even. Unlike last year, no 11-5 team is going to be left out (if the playoffs started today, the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs would be the Chargers, and they already have three losses), and I think 11-5 is about the worst record the Pats will end up with. Take a look at the last eight games:
At Indy
Jets
At New Orleans
At Miami
Carolina
At Buffalo
Jacksonville
At Houston
That Carolina/Buffalo/Jacksonville stretch seems like a pretty safe bet for a sweep, right? That’s nine wins right there. I think they beat both the Jets and Miami, but if you want, I’ll go with a split. That’s 10 wins. So they’d need to find one win in the remaining three games (Indy, NO, Houston) to get to 11. Some tough games left, but 5-3 in the second half looks like a safe bet, particularly with that trio of mediocrity waiting toward the end. The truth is, I think even the right 10-6 would be enough for the Pats. Why?
Well, even if they go to Indy and lose by 500 next Sunday, a win over the Jets in two weeks would lock up the AFC East for the Pats. And I’ve seen NOTHING over the past month that would lead me to believe that anything other than “Patriots 31, Jets 10” is going to happen. That would give the Jets (with a probable home win next week vs. Jacksonville) five losses with games left at Indy and home vs. Atlanta and Cincinnati. At best, they probably finish at 9-7.
And Miami, while clearly better than a 3-5 team, is a 3-5 team … with Chad Henne at quarterback. I’d like to make a case for the Dolphins as a playoff contender, but they are going to lose at least two more games.
(Still, I can’t shake the idea that Miami is one of the six best teams in the AFC. If they play the Bengals 10 times on a neutral field, don’t the Dolphins win six or seven of them? Of course, I still feel that way about the Ravens and they played so dead on Sunday that in the fourth quarter David Caruso put a sheet over their head, looked at the camera and said, “Looks like this bird forgot how to fly.”
CBS did a lousy job promoting this, so I just thought I’d let you know that there will be a CSI Crossover Trilogy this week. Also, Andre Agassi will cry on 60 Minutes and something called NCIS is the No. 1 show on television. Just trying to help, in the event that you might have used the bathroom 612 times during the game and missed every commercial and in-game promo.)
So the Pats, barring injury, are going to the playoffs. After the first two weeks I didn’t think I’d be able to make that declaration with even a shred of confidence before Veterans Day, but here we are.
After that loss to the Jets I sure didn’t think that the Colts game might — might — have No. 1 seed implications for both teams. There’s only maybe a 20-25 percent chance the Pats finish with the top seed even with a win next week (they would need both the Colts and Broncos to lose a few games and the Pats would have to finish 13-3 at worst), but you can at least kick the idea around now.
It’s not impossible. And that’s a long way from needing gifts from Leodis McKelvin and wondering if Rex Ryan was Vince Lombardi with a D-cup. Goodbye to those days.
And welcome back to the big picture.
Four questions to ponder while being impressed with Joey Porter’s ability to match his tackle total to his amount of words said to the media after the game. That had
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