There are only a few sure bets in the NFL.

The Lions will bring misery to Detroit, Al Davis will embarrass Raiders fans, and Jets gunslinger Brett Favre will toss costly picks in the biggest games of the year.

In fact, if there’s an opposite of “big-game quarterback,” Favre is it – a player you can

always count on to come up small under the bright lights of pressure-packed football. It’s a legacy that bodes well for the Patriots as they gear up to face Favre and the Jets Thursday in a nationally televised primetime battle for first place in the AFC East.

Favre’s historic penchant for picks represents one of the more remarkable dichotomies in sports history. He’s certainly a first ballot Hall of Famer, as the all-time leader in every major passing category, the NFL’s only three-time MVP and one of the great ironmen in the history of sports. To put it in terms of presidential politics, Favre has started every single game since the administration of George Bush – George H.W. Bush.

But the iron constitution has some major rust spots. Favre, after all, is the greatest turnover machine in the history of football.

    * • Favre is the NFL’s all-time INT leader (300), well ahead of No. 2 George Blanda (277).
    * • Favre is second in career fumbles (155), and will probably wrest the No. 1 spot from Warren Moon (161) by the end of the season.
    * • Favre has thrown a playoff record 28 INTs (tied with perennial Super Bowl bust Jim Kelly).
    * • Favre matched an ignominious postseason record with six picks in a 2001 playoff game against St. Louis – a black mark that was last achieved by Norm Van Brocklin back in the 1955 playoffs.
    * • Favre threw 29 picks in 2005, the second greatest single-season total in a quarter century of NFL football.
    * • And, of course, Favre leads the league in 2008 with 12 picks.

It’s not just the volume of Favre’s INTs that jumps out. It’s their costly nature in critical games.

Interceptions always kill teams, and Favre almost always throws interceptions. So you do the math. (In my research of playoff football, I’ve found what I call the “interception ladder.” Each INT reduces a team’s chances of winning by about 20 percent.)

Consider Favre’s performance with Green Bay in last year’s NFC Title Game. The Packers were a 13-3 team playing before a boisterous home crowd for a chance to go to the Super Bowl for the first time in 10 years.

But in the fourth quarter and overtime Favre was a train wreck, completing two of his final eight passes for five yards with two INTs – including a pick on his last attempt in OT that set up the Giants’ game-winning field goal.

Perhaps the biggest game of the 2007 regular season was Green Bay’s Thursday night battle against Dallas, in a fight for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Favre was a disaster. He completed just 5 of 14 passes for 56 yards with two INTs before an injury mercifully brought an end to his night.

Favre and the Packers had last reached the playoffs in 2005. Once again, Favre wilted like a dust bowl crop in the biggest game of the year, tossing four picks in a 31-17 Wild Card loss at home to the 8-8 Vikings. It was something of a historic game, too: Favre became just the second quarterback in history to lose a playoff game to a .500 team.

From their founding in 1921 through 2001, the Packers had never lost a home playoff game. But Favre put a quick end to all that: His Packers were just 2-3 in their last five postseason games at Lambeau, and Favre was a major factor with 8 picks in the three losses.

The penchant for picks is startling when you compare Favre to his predecessor in the Packers pantheon, Bart Starr. The five-time champion threw just three INTs in 10 playoff games, leading the Packers to a 9-1 record.

So Jets fans might be geared up for Thursday’s primetime challenge. And Patriots fans might fear that the team will lose its rightful place atop the AFC East.

But the sure money says that Favre will hijack the Jets with a couple costly picks.

Kerry J. Byrne is the publisher of ColdHardFootballFacts.com . His self-congratulatory column will appear here each Wednesday during football season. Send fawning praise, death threats or pictures of your 19-year-old sister to contact@coldhardfootballfacts.com.