The second quarter just got underway and the score is Brady 14, Belichick 0.
When Tom Brady’s knee bent backward like an ostrich leg in Week 1, Patriots fans cringed at the image and knew the season just took a major turn for the worse.
But to emotionless observers like the Cold, Hard Football Facts, the battle had just been joined: the battle to see which epic figure in New England football history – Brady the quarterback or Bill Belichick the head coach – was most responsible for the team’s rise from ignominy to dynasty.
Well, the answer’s now as clear as the vodka martinis they serve in the Fidelity Clubhouse.
Brady’s winning the battle and is about to run away with a blowout victory – a victory similar to San Diego’s 30-10 humiliation of the Patriots Sunday night.
In fact, any educated fan would have laid his money on Brady to begin with. Remember:
• Belichick was 42-58 as a head coach before Brady arrived on the scene.
• Belichick was 100-27 as a head coach with Brady running the show.
• Belichick is now 2-2 in the four games started by Matt Cassel in the post-Brady era.
Even a lab rat, or Eric Mangini, could pick out the pattern.
The truth is that the Patriots became a contender and Belichick became a genius the day that Brady stepped out on the field.
Now without the Hall of Fame quarterback, the team – and Belichick’s legacy – is floundering like the fishermen on George’s Bank.
Here’s how the impact has been felt in three key areas.
The Offense
Most football fans knew that New England’s offense would suffer without Brady at the helm.
But not even Nostradamus could have predicted this kind of implosion: a team that scored 36.8 points per game in 2007 – the second highest average in all of NFL history – can muster just 17.8 PPG here in 2008.
Your 401(k) looks stable by comparison.
Virtually the entire starting offense is the same as it was in the record-setting season of 2007. Only Brady is different. Still, the scoring average has dropped by nearly three touchdowns per game.
It’s a problem that the New England coaching staff is apparently helpless to solve.
The Defense
As we noted here last week, New England’s defense has some serious issues. Namely, it can’t stop the pass – and an inability to stop the pass always spells doom in the NFL.
If you didn’t believe it before the Chargers game you certainly believe it now. The Patriots held the ball longer, they ran for more yards, and they won the third-down battle.
But the Patriots were embarrassed Sunday because they were dominated through the air. The Chargers ripped off 11.3 yards every time Philip Rivers stepped back in the pocket (conversely, New England averaged a pathetic 4.6 YPA each time Matt Cassel dropped back to pass).
Belichick has a reputation has a defensive genius.
But the crew he’s put on the field this year – from the overhyped front three to the patchwork secondary – simply can’t stop opponents through the air. The defense looked serviceable against passers like Damon Huard, Chad Pennington and J.T. O’Sullivan earlier in the season.
But against a quality quarterback like Rivers, the pass defense was toasted more often than a Pop-Tart. For the season, the Patriots have allowed opposing passers a cumulative 96.2 passer rating. Only six teams, including bottom feeders like the Texans, Rams and Lions, are worse on pass defense.
Brady didn’t play defense. But football is not played in a vacuum. The effectiveness of each unit has a profound impact on every other unit. And, right now, the ineffectiveness of the Brady-less offense helps make the defense look more inept than any we’ve seen in the Belichick Era.
The Talent Pool
The sudden dearth of talent in New England – especially on defense – falls squarely upon the shoulders of Belichick.
Put most bluntly, New England management has hijacked the team’s future – and the team’s present – with a series of poor drafts. These poor drafts were bound to catch up with the Patriots sooner or later. It caught up with them sooner thanks to the absence of Brady.
Teams that draft well usually improve dramatically – and do so almost instantly. Conversely, teams that draft poorly usually suffer pretty quickly.
Well, you could argue that no team this side of Detroit has drafted more poorly in recent years than the Patriots.
The top two picks in 2006 were Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson. Maroney missed the Chargers game with undisclosed issues and simply has not lived up to the promise of a No. 1 pick. Jackson was a bona-fide bust and is no longer with the team. Contributors did come later in the draft in David Thomas, Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan O’Callaghan and Le Kevin Smith. But that’s not a dynasty-saving impact draft.
The 2007 draft, meanwhile, was an unmitigated disaster. Top pick Brandon Meriweather, like Maroney before him, has yet to live up to the potential of a No. 1 pick. But at least he still has a locker. The Patriots drafted eight other players that year. Not one of those players is with the team today.
The jury is still out on the 2008 draft class, of course. Maybe Jerod Mayo proves to be an impact player.
But you have to go all the way back to 2003 (Ty Warren, Asante Samuel) and 2004 (Vince Wilfork) to find drafts in which the Patriots selected proven impact defenders. It’s no coincidence that the Patriots won Super Bowls each of those two seasons.
Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game. His ascension to role of starter coincided directly with the ascension of the Patriots organization.
Without him at the helm, the Patriots don’t look like a dynasty and Belichick doesn’t look like one of the best coaches ever. Instead, he looks a coach whose legacy is fighting a losing battle.
Kerry J. Byrne is the publisher of ColdHardFootballFacts.com . His self-congratulatory column will appear here each Wednesday during football season. Send fawning praise, death threats or pictures of your 19-year-old sister to contact@coldhardfootballfacts.com.
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