So, what do you think?
Back in the summer, would you have taken a 5-2 record seven games into the season, as Tom Brady attempted to get his sea legs under him? Would you have felt good about wins over then-unbeaten Baltimore and Atlanta? Would you have lived with close losses in the Meadowlands and at Mile High?
Yeah, you would’ve.
So far, the season has unfolded fairly well for the Patriots, given the challenges posed by big changes in the coaching staff, a quarterback trying to overcome a devastating injury and loads of turnover on the defense.
The 5-2 record feels just about right. The most encouraging part is that the Patriots have already faced the toughest part of their schedule. In fact, they’ve faced just two bottom feeders so far — the Titans and Bucs over the past two weeks — and those games were gruesome bloodbaths befitting the Halloween season.
How about these Cold, Hard Football Facts? The Patriots held the Titans and Bucs to the following cumulative performance in the passing game:
•13 of 44, 29.5 percent, 165 yards, 3.75 YPA, 1 TD, 5 INT and a 10.7 passer rating.
Yeah, they were bad teams. But a 10.7 passer rating over two games is virtually impossible in this day and age — an era that gives every advantage to the passers. So the Patriots didn’t just beat these bad teams, they humiliated them.
These performances tell us that given the cushy schedule that Indy has faced, the Patriots would probably have the same 6-0 record as the Colts.
So as the Patriots return from their second straight slaughter of an overmatched opponent and prepare for their bye week, the next question is obvious:
What does the rest of the season hold?
The Cold, Hard Football Facts picture a second-half slate that holds few surprises: the Patriots, 5-2 heading into the bye week, will go 7-2 over the final nine games. They’ll finish the season 12-4. They’ll win the AFC East. They’ll host at least one playoff game. They’re travel to Denver or Indy for the divisional round in mid-January. And, then, at that point, we’ll see if this team has recaptured the big-game stones that defined it in the first half of the decade.
Until then, here’s how the Cold, Hard Football Facts see the second half of the year unfolding for the Patriots.
Nov. 8 – vs. Miami
The Dolphins ruined New England’s record 21-game regular-season win streak last year, when they unleashed the wildcat against the Patriots.
Reason for concern: Miami this year is No. 1 on third downs (53.8 percent), No. 2 in time of possession (34:46 per game) — New England is No. 1 – and No. 5 running the ball (4.8 YPA).
Reason for optimism: The fact of the matter is that the wildcat offense — while enjoyable to watch for many of us — is nothing but smoke and mirrors. All the Dolphins have to show for their dominance of the play clock and productivity on the ground this year is a 2-4 record. At the end of the day, the Dolphins win like every other team in the NFL: when they pass well.
The last word: The Dolphins do not pass well enough to beat the Patriots.
Hype factor: Quite a bit if the Dolphins beat the Jets this week; all but none if the Dolphins lose to the Jets this week and fall to 2-5 with a trip to Foxboro looming.
Verdict: The Patriots win and climb to 6-2.
Nov. 15 – at Indianapolis
The Colts are awe-inspiring with their consistency, cranking out victories over the last decade as if they were license plates in a Concord Junction sweat shop. They literally look as good as ever here in 2009 — 6-0 and barely breathing heavy, with four straight wins by at least 17 points.
Reason for concern: You know Indy’s passing game is great. Once again, Peyton Manning leads the NFL in passer rating. But Indy’s pass defense is among the best in the league, too. In fact, right now, they’re No. 1 in the NFL in TD passes allowed (2); No. 1 in INT-to-TD ratio (6 picks,
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