The Cold, Hard Football Facts like to get their hands around things. Usually those things we like to touch are filled with frothy golden liquid, coated in delectable Buffalo sauce or constrained so suggestively beneath a skimpy bikini top.
In the case of the Patriots, the thing we all need to get our hands around as we head into the 2009 season is the state of the New England pass defense. We also need to come to grips with, as we do below, the massive turnover in the Patriots secondary since last year.
We talked about this issue here on WEEI.com several times during the 2008 season. But it remains no less true today: even with a healthy Tom Brady at the helm of the offense, the Patriots live and die on the strength of their pass defense.
In fact, most teams do.
The historic importance of pass defense
The best way to measure the success of a pass defense is NOT by the number of yards its surrenders -- the useless measure typically cited by the TV networks and other so-called pigskin “pundits.” The best way to measure the success of a pass defense is by its Defensive Passer Rating -- that is, applying the very same formula we use to rate quarterbacks to rate pass defenses.
It’s an incredibly telling indicator of success -- especially when paired with a great quarterback. In fact, all of the great dynasties in history had great Defensive Passer Ratings (DPR) on one side of the ball and great quarterbacks on the other.
Pittsburgh’s great Steel Curtain of the 1970s, for example, boasts the single best defensive passer rating of the Super Bowl Era: their 1973 team produced an incredibly miniscule 33.1 DPR. Four of the 15 best pass defenses of the Super Bowl Era (as measured by DPR) were fielded by the Steel Curtain of the 1970s.
This great pass defense, paired with one of the best big-game quarterbacks in history in Terry Bradshaw, carried the Steelers to four Super Bowl titles in the 1970s.
The 1960s Packers, meanwhile, routinely produced defensive passer ratings in the 40s, led by the Super Bowl champion 1967 Packers (41.5 DPR).
This great pass defense, paired with the best big-game quarterback in history in Bart Starr (his postseason passer rating of 104.8 is the NFL record), carried the Packers to five NFL or Super Bowl titles in the 1960s.
The Patriots provide further proof of the need to pair stingy pass defenses with great quarterbacks.
In fact, the Bill Belichick Era Patriots have proven that when you pair a legendary quarterback with a solid pass defense that you usually fight for, reach and win Super Bowls.
•The Patriots have reached the AFC title game five times in the Belichick Era (2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007). Their average defensive passer rating in these five seasons was 68.9 -- much better than the average modern pass defense (about 80).
•The Patriots have failed to reach the AFC title game four times in the Belichick Era (2000, 2002, 2005, 2008). Their average defensive passer rating in these four seasons was 85.5 -- worse than the average modern pass defense.
In other words, the Patriots are Super Bowl contenders when they have a decent pass defense. They are not Super Bowl contenders when their pass defense sucks.
The state of the 2009 Patriots
All of which brings us back to the issue at hand: the state of the Patriots pass defense in 2009.
Put most bluntly, even if Brady had played last year, the pass defense was not good enough for the team to win or even reach a Super Bowl (a dreadful 89.8 DPR). Even if the team had reached the playoffs, the pass defense was not good enough to win a Super Bowl.
Belichick and Patriots management were painfully aware of this situation. In fact, they made an all-out assault on revamping the pass defense since the season ended after just 16 games.
Here’s a look at the members of New England’s dreadful secondary from 2008 and their status in here 2009:
Rodney Harrison: The great safety retired after making just six appearances in 2008; he’s now an analyst for NBC Sports. Impact: arguably the best safety in Patriots history, he was plagued by injuries late in his
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