Predicting what the Patriots will do in the NFL Draft the last few years has been a difficult task -- they’re famous for keeping their cards close to the vest, and the annual two-day team-building exercise in April is no exception. But over the years, they have provided a few hints as to the kinds of players they like and where they like to take them. If you’re a New England football fan, consider this week’s edition of The Hot List a GPS for a journey through draft weekend.

The Patriots will almost always surprise. Conventional wisdom says the Patriots will target defense this year, specifically linebackers and defensive backs. But coach Bill Belichick and the rest of the New England front office have rarely listened to conventional wisdom -- it’s what’s delivered them Pro Bowlers like Logan Mankins, as well as future late-round stars like Matt Cassel, Deion Branch and Jarvis Green. (It’s also delivered a few duds as well, including Chad Jackson and Bethel Johnson.) So don’t be shocked if the Patriots go in a completely different direction than what most people have them going.

“I could see the Pats going in a number or directions with the first pick,” said draft analyst Wes Bunting of the National Football Post. “They don’t have a real pressing need and the fact they have so many picks in the first three rounds gives them a lot of options. So I don’t see them reaching for any position and expect the draft to just fall into their laps.”

One school of thought says the Patriots might surprise with a pass-catcher or two on the first day.

“Despite his defense-first rep, Belichick has drafted offensive skill position players early several times, and also traded a second-round pick for Wes Welker,” said Mike Tanier of FootballOutsiders.com. “There should be considerable talent on the board when the Patriots come around with their first pick of the second round: guys like Brandon Tate of North Carolina or Mohamed Massaquoi from Georgia.

“But I wouldn’t be shocked if the Patriots moved up and took a player like Maryland wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. On most rosters, he wouldn’t be scary as a rookie. But have him run seams up the slot with Randy Moss and Welker on either side and, well, the Patriots offense would be just as scary as ever.”

The Patriots will take someone from a school where Belichick has a “connection.” Belichick been in the game longer than most, so he’s been able to build an unparalleled network of coaches -- former assistants and ex-colleagues -- upon whom he can draw for background at draft time. That means when he calls up Nick Saban at Alabama, Pat Hill at Fresno State, Kirk Ferentz at Iowa or Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, he knows he’ll get information he couldn’t wheedle out of the prospect via an interview at the combine or see on tape.

You can include Florida’s Urban Meyer in that group as well -- even though the two have no official ties, they have become BFF’s in recent years, with Meyer showing up at New England’s spring minicamp and Belichick flying down to speak to the Gators. (For what it’s worth, Belichick has taken more than his share of Florida players in recent years, but most of them haven’t been able to find a home in Foxborough.)

This year, players who might fall under that umbrella include Alabama safety Rashad Johnson, Virginia linebacker Clint Sintim, Florida tight end Cornelius Ingram, Florida wide receiver Percy Harvin or Notre Dame safety David Bruton. Ingram and Harvin are certainly familiar with Belichick.

“We’ve kind of shook hands once, but I haven’t really talked to him a whole lot,” Ingram said of Belichick. “Him and coach Meyer definitely cross [paths]. I know they are pretty good friends and I know the Patriots like Florida athletes, so hopefully it will work out. ... Every time [Meyer] gives us a prep talk before the game he lets us know this is the way the Patriots do it. You got to be for real about the situation because they’ve won numerous championships. It’s definitely not a bad team to copy.”

“Coach Meyer tries to imitate him to a T,” Harvin said of Belichick. “A lot of the things we did were coach Meyer imitating him. He came down and talked to us a couple times. He was a real inspiration to our team. He’s been an inspiration to me. I’ve talked to him several times and think highly of him. He’s talked to me and told me what I need to work on. I think the world of him.”

A quarterback is likely to be on the Patriots’ radar, at least in the middle to late rounds. Doesn’t matter how firmly entrenched the incumbent quarterback may be, New England has never been shy about drafting a QB. Tom Brady (sixth round in 2000), Kliff Kingsbury (sixth round in 2003), Matt Cassel (seventh round in 2005) and Kevin O’Connell (third round in 2008) have all been taken in the mid-to-late rounds since 2000. Odds are good that if there’s a quarterback prospect in that range this year, they’ll go for it.

According to our records, the following quarterbacks have either been contacted by the Patriots or worked out for the team: Rhett Bomar of Sam Houston State, Brian Hoyer of Michigan State, Stephen McGee of Texas A&M and West Virginia’s Pat White. It wouldn’t be a shocker to see New England take a flier on one of these guys with a late-round selection.

New England will tinker with its draft board. The Patriots have six picks in the first 97 overall selections, including Nos. 23 and 34 overall. Traditionally, they eschew big deals on draft day, and considering the prospects out there, they’ll avoid making a big splash this weekend. However, they have always tweaked their draft status with minor moves, either trading down or dealing picks for the following season. From 2000 through 2008, Belichick and former GM Scott Pioli always made at least one deal on draft weekend. In all, there have been 29 trades on draft weekend. Only two of them — the deals involving Drew Bledsoe and Randy Moss — could be classified as big deals. The rest were about maneuvering for a better overall position, whether it was for that year or the next.

“Belichick isn’t shy at all about making trades,” said Tanier. “He makes lots of pick-for-pick deals with no players involved.”

Our choice for best trade-down manuever under Belichick probably came in 2007, when New England traded its first-round pick that year (27th overall) to San Francisco for its first-round pick the following year, as well as the 49ers’ fourth-rounder later that weekend ... which the Patriots promptly shipped to Oakland in exchange for Randy Moss. The 2008 San Francisco pick eventually became 2008 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo.

Even though Pioli is no longer with the Patriots, don’t expect New England to dramatically alter its overall draft approach. The overall New England philosophy is presented in its mission statement: “We are building a big, strong, fast, smart, tough, and disciplined football team that consistently competes for championships.” Just because Pioli has left for Kansas City, that will not change.

“Belichick loves competitive guys, guys who are self motivated,” Bunting said. “I think he will go about his business the same as usual this year without Pioli, and I don’t think it will have much effect.”

Christopher Price covers the Patriots for WEEI.com.