FOXBORO — In the AFC East, division wins are rare currency.
The Patriots enter Sunday’s game with the Dolphins in first place in the division with a 5-2 mark, and a division win over a 3-4 Miami team (currently 3-0 in the division) would give New England (1-1 in division play) a two-game lead in the division over the idle Jets (4-4) and a little separation in the chase for the AFC East title.
It won’t be easy. The Dolphins are one of the best running teams in the league. Behind Ricky Williams (averaging 5.4 yards per carry in 2009) and Ronnie Brown (seven touchdowns in his last six games), they tote the rock at a rate of 153 rushing yards per game this season, the fourth-best average in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Patriots are strictly middle of the pack when it comes to run defense this year — 15th in the league, yielding an average of 109 yards per game. They’ve only allowed one rushing touchdown this season, but still are giving up 4.5 yards per carry.
The battle for this game will be determined by who wins the battle up front. Bill Belichick has always been about taking away the opponent's No. 1 offensive option, and so New England will stack the line, looking to stop the run by bringing the safeties closer to the line (which means another big week for the two Brandons, Meriweather and McGowan) and daring young Miami quarterback Chad Henne to beat them over the top.
If the Patriots can bottle up the Wildcat, it’ll go a long way toward getting them the separation they need in the division race.
“This one’s a huge game for us,” quarterback Tom Brady said. “They beat us here, last year, in the worst defeat that we’ve ever had here at Gillette Stadium. It’s going to be important for us to come out and play our best game.”
Here are four other things worth keeping an eye on Sunday at Gillette Stadium:
Sean Smith and Vontae Davis
The two rookie cornerbacks — who started last week for the Dolphins, the first time in Miami’s 43-year history it started two rookie corners — will be charged with slowing down the Patriots passing game. Miami is 21st overall in pass defense, allowing an average of 236 passing yards a game. In addition, opposing passers have completed 56.7 percent of passes against the Dolphins defense.
They have played well for rookies, but they are still rookies, and as a result, when Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker step on the field together on Sunday, it will be hard for them not to start salivating. The Patriots enter Sunday’s game ranked second in the league in average passing yards per game with 291 yards per game. If the Patriots are able to exploit this matchup, they should have little trouble rolling up good numbers on Miami. Look for the Dolphins to try and blitz as often as possible to reduce the coverage time for the two young cornerbacks.
(Of course, Miami does have the option of putting Moss in single coverage. The Dolphins did it last year, and Moss had eight catches for 125 yards and three touchdowns. What do you think about maybe doing that again, coach Tony Sparano? “That didn’t work out so good,” Sparano said ruefully this week.)
The Patriots’ blitz packages
Both the Saints and Jets used an aggressive blitz package to slow down Miami’s running game, sending multiple defensive backs at Brown in an attempt to slow down the Wildcat. New Orleans sent Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter, while the Jets adjusted by sending Darrelle Revis off the edge. As a result, they were able to render the Wildcat mostly ineffective. Don’t think New England didn’t notice.
However, don’t expect the Patriots to automatically assume that because it worked for someone else, it’s going to work for them.
“I think what you do is when you’re playing a team, you really just kind of focus on just that team you’re playing and how they run their particular offense or particular sets,” Pats defensive coordinator Dean Pees said. “Now, you also look at teams they’ve played and the success or lack of success they’ve had playing certain fronts or certain coverages or certain techniques.
“But, I think if you’re watching somebody else’s Wildcat, or for that matter any formation, [it] can be totally different with two different teams.”
The Patriots kick coverage
If this was September, then there might be a reason to be concerned about the New England kick coverage. However, its average return yards allowed per game has decreased pretty steadily over the last six games — from Week 2 to Week 7, here’s a look at the average yards per return per game: 31.8 vs. Jets, 27.8 vs. Atlanta, 25.5 vs. Baltimore, 15.5 vs. Denver, 19.4 vs. Tennessee, 17.7 vs. Tampa Bay.
According to special teams captain Sam Aiken, there’s an easy way to keep that rate going down, even if you’re facing someone as special as Ted Ginn Jr.
“Keep doing what we’ve been doing,” Aiken said. “Stay in focus. Maintain your lanes. Keep doing what we’ve been doing.”
The Miami kick return game was awesome last week against the Jets, with Ginn returning one kick 100 yards for a touchdown and another 101 yards. Look for the Patriots to employ a combination of things to negate Ginn’s ability, including having kicker Stephen Gostkowski blast the ball out of the back of the end zone — he has 13 touchbacks, second-best in the league.
Sebastian Vollmer
The rookie from Germany will play a big role against the Dolphins. Expected to get the start at left tackle, he submitted a passable performance in his effort against the Titans on Oct. 18 but was part of a miserable performance by the offensive line on Oct. 25 against the Buccaneers in London. He was on the field for all 70 snaps but took a pair of bad holding calls.
He’ll face his sternest test of the season on Sunday against the Dolphins, who will likely come at him as hard as possible with a combination that will include Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, two defenders who have made a habit of torturing whichever New England offensive lineman lines up opposite of them, usually Matt Light.
Porter says it doesn’t matter if it’s Light or Vollmer over there — it’s New England week.
“It’s not really being the rookie or whoever’s in there — I’m just looking forward to this challenge. It’s New England week,” Porter said. “If Light was in there, I’d be looking forward to that. Whoever’s over there, I’m bringing my game, I’m going to be ready to play.”
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