Even with almost half a season in the books, the 2009 Patriots are a tough team to get a handle on.
Through seven games, they are 5-2, alone in first place in the AFC East. There’s been some good (an 84-point explosion the last two weeks against Tennessee and Tampa Bay), some bad (two poor halves against New York and Denver that led to losses) and some ugly (the failed Joey Galloway experiment).
But trying to gauge just how good they really are to this point has been a difficult task for three main reasons:
1) By his own admission, quarterback Tom Brady has been rusty and out of sync with his receivers at points throughout the first half of the season as he continues his re-acclimation into the offense after a year on the sidelines because of a knee injury.
2) There was dramatic turnover of the roster in the offseason, and almost half the current 53-man roster is comprised of players who are in their first year with the Patriots — both veterans and rookies — and still trying to assimilate themselves into the system. There have been mixed results.
3) They’ve played an uneven schedule, with a handful of games against flat-out bad teams, as well as games against teams that are good but not great. In addition, they’ve flashed some erratic performances — they’ve won games they should have won, but also lost games they initially had control over.
As a result, after seven games, this team is a hard-to-define bunch.
The first two points clearly have started to work themselves out. And their schedule also will start to offer more proof as to where this team stands — after the upcoming bye, the Patriots face a month with four character-defining contests that should give them a chance to craft their true identity and ultimately reveal what sort of team they have.
No 59-0 chumps will come in this stretch — two unbeatens (Indianapolis and New Orleans) and a pair of AFC East games (Miami and New York) could mean the difference between a division title and a wild-card berth.
“We have some pretty tough games coming up,” Brady said after Sunday’s win.
Are these Patriots a very good team that’s a notch below contender status? Or are they truly capable of challenging for another Super Bowl? By the end of the month, these four games will let us know.
Nov. 8 vs. Dolphins (2-4) in Foxboro
The Dolphins suddenly became a key divisional game again last season, and this year should hold the same level of import. Miami slipped with a late loss Sunday against New Orleans, blowing a golden opportunity to beat the unbeaten Saints with some questionable play-calling in the second half.
If the Jets beat the Dolphins this week in the Meadowlands, a New England win over Miami the following week could bury the Dolphins at 2-6, and Miami could forget about back-to-back division title.
Nov. 15 vs. Colts (6-0) in Indianapolis
The Colts are still the regular-season game against which all others are measured. While Indianapolis has more new faces than the Patriots, many constants remain in Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Dwight Freeney, all of whom are supported by Peyton Manning, who is likely the first-half leader in the race for MVP.
The Colts, who have winnable games in San Francisco and Houston the next two weeks, could come into this game at 8-0. If New England is 6-2 at this point, expect the pregame hype machine — especially because it’s a Sunday night game — to hit DEFCON 2.
Nov. 22 vs. Jets (4-3) in Foxboro
If the Jets and Patriots both take care of business with wins over the Dolphins, the division could be on the line when these two meet in a few weeks.
But it will be an eminently watchable game for several other reasons, not the least of which is that it will feature the rematch of Randy Moss and Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. The Jets were able to contain Moss in a Week 2 matchup, and Moss, while acknowledging the work of New York’s team defense, took a shot at Revis after the game.
“All week he was talking about being a shutdown corner, but there are no shutdown corners in the league because they have help most of the game,” Moss said. “I probably could be a shutdown corner if I had [Brandon] Meriweather over the top for the whole game.”
New York linebacker Bart Scott answered with a shot back at Moss.
“Tell him to man up next time and come across the middle like a man if he wants to be a complete receiver,” Scott said.
Nov. 30 vs. Saints (6-0) in New Orleans
The biggest test of the four. The Saints have done a ton of good stuff on both sides of the ball, with quarterback Drew Brees, running back Mike Bell and wide receiver Marques Colston leading an offense that’s in the top five of every major offensive category, and safety Darren Sharper (six interceptions, three of which he’s run back for touchdowns) and defensive end Charles Grant (four sacks) leading an improved defense. And they are terrifying at home — 3-0 this season, having beaten teams by an average of 18 points.
The first half of Sunday’s win over the Dolphins in Miami aside, New Orleans has looked extremely impressive on the way to an undefeated mark — right now, the Saints are just one of three undefeated teams left in the NFL, and the only perfect team left in the NFC. (The only team that likely has a shot at knocking them off between now and their post-Thanksgiving matchup with the Patriots is Atlanta, which visits the Saints this Sunday.)
If both New Orleans and Indianapolis stay perfect the next few weeks, the Patriots could end up playing six undefeated teams over the course of the regular season, seven if you count the season-opener against the Bills.
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