Well, so much for optimism.
After a couple of weeks of Ross-and-Rachel-esque “will they, won’t they?” the NHL spoke for both sides Friday and gave the answer fans were probably expecting at this point: They might, and if they do, it won’t be for a while.
The league’s offer for a new collective bargaining agreement last week looked like it could be the start of real, honest to goodness negotiations between the owners and the NHL players’ association, but it proved to be nothing more than false hope. Three rejected counterproposals from the players later, the league pulled its offer off the table and on Friday cancelled games through Nov. 30.
The offer that the owners have since ripped up had to be accepted by this week, and if it had been, the league would have been able to get a full 82-game schedule in beginning on Nov. 2. These cancellations mean that all hope is lost for a full season and a whole lot more. Here are a few things to take away from Friday’s cancellations.
THERE GOES NOV. 23
Heading into the lockout, many people (including yours truly), viewed Nov. 23 as a likely date for the start of a shortened NHL season. The reason? Nov. 23, the day after Thanksgiving, featured the first NBC game of the season, the “Thanksgiving Showdown” between the Bruins and Rangers at TD Garden (the argument could be made that a game so weirdly named deserved to be cancelled, but that’s another, much longer column for another time).
The line of thinking behind that logic (of the season starting then, not the name) was that unlike the lockout of 2004-05, the NHL had a network deal in place. The current deal between the NHL and NBC is worth $2 billion over 10 years, but the reason it would seem Nov. 23 proved to be expendable is because the league will still get paid by the network this season even if games aren’t played. However, the league will reportedly have to give NBC a free 11th year of the deal if the entire 2012-13 season is cancelled.
WHAT’S NEXT?
If the last couple months have been any indication, what comes after one round of cancellations is another round of cancellations, followed by another round of cancellations. So far, a total of 326 games have been cancelled, including 22 Bruins games.
So with Nov. 23 gone, it seems there would be two big things (much bigger than Nov. 23, anyway) left to cancel: The All-Star Game and the Winter Classic.
According to ESPN’s John Buccigross, those cancellations might come much sooner than later. Buccigross tweeted Friday that per NHL sources, the league is planning to announce the cancellations of both on Monday.
It’s hard to imagine the sides being able to get a new CBA done before Monday, but it’s just as hard to imagine the league cancelling the Winter Classic (which would be a good one between the Red Wings and Maple Leafs on New Years Day at Michigan Stadium) that early.
While the league would need to make the decision on the Winter Classic soon for scheduling purposes, they wouldn’t have to do it that soon. According to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, HBO needs to know by mid-November whether the game will be played, as HBO produces the behind-the-scenes series “24/7” leading up to the game.
LET’S JUST SAY THESE ARE THE LAST CANCELLATIONS…
Maybe it’s overly optimistic to assume this is the last batch of cancellations, we won’t assume that. However, if they are the league is to just go with the remaining schedule, the B’s would begin in the midst of perhaps the trickiest part of their schedule.
That’s a lot of “ifs,” as the league could also pack more games into a shorter time like they were trying to do with the last proposal, but for the sake of analyzing the schedule we have to work with, it’s worth taking a look.
The November cancellations mean that the B’s would get to avoid their late-November stretch of four games against the Rangers, Penguins, Devils and Carolina.
If the season were to start in December under the current schedule, the B’s would open with home games against the Sabres and Coyotes before hitting the road for games in Winnipeg, Toronto and Detroit. In addition to having to play 2012 playoff teams like the Coyotes and Red Wings, the B’s would also face fellow postseason clubs in the Penguins, Panthers, Stanley Cup champion Kings, Capitals and Canucks (in Vancouver) in December. Not having to play those late November games would help in this scenario, but Boston’s December schedule is no cakewalk.
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