By the time 9 am rolls around Tuesday morning, the Bruins will either be in the process of getting Blake Wheeler at the price they want or starting down a road that could mean the end of the right wing's time in Boston.
The two sides have been apart on contract talks for much of the offseason, with communication-less stretches occurring in the weeks leading up to a dreaded arbitration meeting. A source indicated to WEEI.com late Monday night that Bruins general manager Peter Chiarelli and assistant GM Don Sweeney had a Monday night meeting in Toronto with Wheeler's camp in hopes of coming to a last-minute deal. As was the case with the rest of the negotiations, the talks didn't leave Wheeler reaching for a pen.
Opinions on Wheeler vary from one person to the next. For some, he's an up-and-coming forward with size and a scoring touch. For others, he's an underachiever and has yet to properly utilize his frame. What does this mean to an arbiter? That news remains forthcoming, but for now it's a bit of a guessing game. Here is what we do know, and what it means in the case of Wheeler v. Bruins.
MONEY
The arbitration process has no sympathy for teams tight against the cap, so the Bruins will need to make whatever adjustments they need to in order to sign both Wheeler and rookie center Tyler Seguin. Chiarelli said recently that the team's plan is to take care of Seguin once they've reached a deal with Wheeler.
Wheeler should get a deal somewhere in the $2 million range. Though he outperformed teammate Michael Ryder, to whom Chiarelli gave a deal worth $4 million a season, the argument cannot be made in arbitration, as free agent deals cannot be used as barometers in arbitration per the collective bargaining agreement.
The Bruins should hope Wheeler is awarded a deal no higher than $2.6 million. In such a scenario, the Bruins -- right now just over $12,000 under the cap, according to CapGeek.com -- could sign both Wheeler and Seguin and be approximately $3.5 million over the cap. In such a scenario, the team would be able to enter the season technically in good graces with the cap thanks to the temporary relief they will get from the injured Marco Sturm's cap hit. They would still need to lose $3.5 million in salary once they activated the winger however, so there's a good chance the Bruins may do something before then.
If the team becomes desperate to cut costs, Ryder could be the odd man out. Accepting Wheeler's award would open up a second buyout window for the Bruins. Chiarelli made it clear earlier in the offseason that he wasn't buying anybody out and actually mentioned Ryder by name as being safe. Still, it's an option that would help the Bruins keep Wheeler, sign Seguin and not have to worry about shopping Tim Thomas or Marc Savard. A smaller cost-cutting move would still need to be made, however, as buying out Ryder would save the team only $2.66 million.
PERFORMANCE
Wheeler hasn't exactly been the mark of consistency in his time as a Bruin. Though he's missed only one game in his two-year career, his stats were were better when the offense was better, which is quite understandable. Looking at a hockey card, however, all the stats read is a decline from one year to the next. It is for this reason that many fans called for the Bruins to offer him up to the Oilers at draft time in order move up from the second pick to the top choice.
Wheeler undoubtedly has the ability that led to the Coyotes selecting him fifth overall in the 2004 draft, but he's had his struggles. It's hard not to note that he went pointless from March 5 to April 16 last season. He was also a minus-4. Still, the numbers -- as a whole at least -- don't lie. Wheeler had a very strong rookie season in '08-'09 with 21 goals and 25 assists for 45 goals and last season finished third on the team with 18 goals despite his perceived sophomore slump.
It would be hard to believe the Bruins wouldn't like to see another season of what Wheeler can do. Should they bring him back for the season, he would be a restricted free agent once again after the '10-'11 campaign.
THE ROAD AHEAD
The Bruins chose for this hearing to yield a one-year deal rather than a two year pact. This makes a lot of sense for a few reasons. For starters, the aforementioned inconsistency would suggest they would like to use the year to evaluate whether he, like fellow young forwards David Krejci and Seguin, is a building blog or an expendable piece.
Also, whatever the Bruins pay Wheeler, especially given their cap situation, will impact the future of other big names on the roster. Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Mark Stuart, Ryder, and Sturm will be free agents following the season and one would have to imagine the team is interested in doing what it has to retain Bergeron and Chara. If the Bruins enter next season on a budget they may run a bigger risk of losing one of their bigger stars.
The salary cap situation isn't exactly pretty, but this offseason has been going on for long enough that Bruins fans should be reserved to the fact that the team will somehow find a way. Does that mean they should expect the team to walk away from Wheeler? Don't count on it
DJ BEAN
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