OK, two weeks in and some things are not so surprising.

The NFL’s leading rusher? Adrian Peterson.

Terrell Owens is tied for the league lead with three TD catches.

Marion Barber and Brian Westbrook are among those who top the NFL in rushing scores with three.

The first player to expose his genitalia online? Chris Cooley. (C’mon. wouldn’t he have been a top-five pick to do that before the season started? I guess the other four would’ve been Chad Johnson, TO, Pacman Jones and Monte Kiffin.)

And there have been surprises…

Three rookies (Matt Forte, Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson) are in the top 10 in rushing.

Anthony Fasano has as many catches as Randy Moss.

Jay Cutler leads the NFL in passing yards and is tied (with Philip Rivers) in TD passes.

(And if you think I’m mentioning Cutler’s great start simply because I predicted it you couldn’t be more wrong. If that were the case I would have also bragged about Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte and Kurt Warner. I simply wouldn’t do such boasting. It is beneath my dignity.)

Let’s take a look at the Week 3 games…

Kansas City at Atlanta

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

For Kansas City, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe. Lost in the Chiefs’ ineptitude over the first two weeks is the play of these pass-catchers, who have each snared 11 balls. It’s a shame that Bowe is stuck with the likes of Croyle and Thigpen, with a top QB he could be a 100-catch guy. For Atlanta the only player I can call a must-play is Michael Turner. The Raiders rushed for 300 yards vs. the Chiefs last week so we might see “The Burner” return to his Week 1 glory.

Avoid if You Can:

Look, Larry Johnson is not the worst option this week. I can see Herman Edwards (I wonder what kind of chemistry he and Bill Cowher will have on the CBS pregame show next year?) trying to feed him the ball early in this one, so a 20-carry, 80-yard game is not out of the question. But with Tyler Thigpen starting I’d bench Johnson if you have other RB options. The Falcons are going to put about 10,000 guys on the line and dare Thigpen to do something. It just feels like another frustrating game for LJ. I need to see more from Matt Ryan before I can advocate Roddy White as an every-week start. If you own White and you have an Anthony Gonzalez or Eddie Royal on your roster, who are going to play this week?

Cincinnati at New York Giants

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

I’d go with both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh this week. I think the Giants are going to be way up early and Cincinnati is going to have to throw the ball the whole game. That’s it for the Bengals, who are on a collision course with 5-11. For the Giants you have to like the Big Three (Eli, Plaxico and Jacobs) this week.

Avoid if You Can:

Carson Palmer is giving me a “Drew Bledsoe in 1999” vibe. His last 16 games? 18 TDs and 21 picks. Actually, you can probably start Chris Perry. Again, the Bengals are going to throw the ball a ton in this one and Perry is a good receiving option out of the backfield. I like both Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw but neither gets enough carries to justify a play. If I owned Jacobs I would make sure I had Ward.

Houston at Tennessee

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Andre Johnson is the lone Houston player who has to be in a lineup. His 10-catch game in Week 1 will not be his only double-digit effort this season. For the Titans it has been a platoon in the backfield. Through two games Chris Johnson has 34 carries, LenDale White 33. Clearly that’s going to change if Johnson continues to produce at this level. Throw in his ability to catch passes and the rookie could very well be a first-round pick next season. White isn’t a terrible option—he is going to get his 15 carries and should handle all goal-line touches. Justin Cage isn’t a bad play this week. He’s another guy I’d go with over Roddy White, for example.

Avoid if You Can:

Houston’s running back situation remains muddled. With Ahman Green doubtful for this week with a foot injury, look for Steve Slaton to get the bulk of the carries. The Titans have been tough against the run the first two weeks and Slaton did little in his debut (13 carries, 43 yards) to distinguish himself, so I’d leave him on the bench. There are several backups in the league (including Jerious Norwood , who is a nice option to have a big game versus that porous KC defense) who I would play over Slaton.

Arizona at Washington

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

I’m sure there are plenty of owners who drafted Kurt Warner solely as a bye-week replacement for Tom Brady. That pick may turn out as a season-saver, as Warner could finish the season as a top-five QB. If he stays healthy I think 4,000 yards and 30 TDs are reasonable expectations. I was a little concerned about Anquan Boldin until last week’s three-TD performance, but now he joins Larry Fitzgerald as a “put them in and leave them alone” play. Edgerrin James struggled last week and has lost red-zone touches to Tim Hightower but must remain in your lineup for now. For the Redskins, Clinton Portis is off to a strong start with 84 and 96 yards in his first two games, respectively. He wasn’t a sexy first-round pick in fantasy drafts but he looks like a smart one. Santana Moss had a huge game vs. New Orleans (seven catches, 164 yards) and is a strong play Sunday.

Avoid if You Can:

I wouldn’t play him (or use a roster spot on him) yet, but keep an eye on Jason Campbell. His big game last week vs. the Saints might’ve been a fluke, but it could be a sign that he will flourish in Jim Zorn’s West Coat offense. Arizona is a good matchup, so his effort this week will be something to watch. For Arizona, Hightower simply doesn’t get enough carries to warrant a play at this time.

Oakland at Buffalo

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Darren McFadden is a tough call. I guess if you own him you have to play him off of last week, but a turf toe injury, a tough Buffalo D and an ineffective QB (JaMarcus Russell completed just six passes last week) makes this a shaky play at best. If McFadden and Justin Fargas are both out, Michael Bush is a definite start. Marshawn Lynch is a leave-alone guy and should find the end zone again at least once this week. Lee Evans has played pretty well so far this season (179 total receiving yards) and should be a good start against an Oakland secondary that struggled vs Denver in Week 1. If the Buffalo defense is still available in your league I’d pick them up and start them here.

Avoid if You Can:

There really isn’t anyone left of any value so let me ask this: Why did the San Francisco Giants let Tim Lincecum throw 138 pitches the other night? So he could pick up a meaningless shutout vs. the Padres? That shutout will be great two years and four surgeries from now. If I’m a Giants fan I’d be insane about this. Somewhere Mark Prior nods in agreement.

Miami at New England

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that does not have a player worthy of a fantasy start (you could argue the Ravens, but at least Derrick Mason caught 103 passes last season). For the Pats, I’m fairly high on Cassel this week. I’d play him over either Carson Palmer or Matt Hasselbeck, just to name a couple of struggling early-round draft picks. I don’t think a 220-yard, two TD game from Cassel is a reach. Moss and Welker are clear plays, as is the Pats D.

Avoid if You Can:

I understand that Lamont Jordan was the main guy down the stretch last week, but can we have any faith in a Patriots’ running back? Would a four-carry, eight-yard game from Jordan on Sunday shock anyone? No Jordan, Morris, Faulk, Butts, Lockwood or Maroney.

Tampa Bay at Chicago

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

On my blog Tuesday I posted a look at what a first round of a draft might look like after the first two weeks. Earnest Graham wasn’t on the list, but he didn’t miss by much. Warrick Dunn has cut into his carries but Graham has still been plenty productive, averaging 8.3 yards per carry. The Bears defense is a brutal matchup for any back but Graham should be in your lineup. Speaking of the Chicago D, they should be a strong play once again this week. Matt Forte has done everything but find the end zone in his first two NFL weeks (Jason McKie has served as the goal-line back with a pair of TDs), averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

Avoid if You Can:

I know Brandon Lloyd was decent last week (five catches, 66 yards) but I wouldn’t touch him. I don’t think the Bears will have a single player (outside of Forte) with any fantasy value this season. I don’t like either Antonio Bryant or Ike Hilliard this week, even with the absence of Joey Galloway (sprained foot).

(Speaking of the veteran wideout, I just realized that the Demi Moore character in “A Few Good Men” is named Jo Galloway. I never connected those two. So now, if I ever see him in a locker room (or anywhere else, for that matter), I’ll have to ask,“Why do you like them so much?” Or I could go with, “I know what you’re going to say. You don’t have to. We’ve had our differences. I've said some things I didn't mean, you've said some things you didn't mean but you're happy that I stuck with the case. And if you've gained a certain respect for me over the last three weeks that you didn't have before, well, of course I'm happy about that, but we don't have to make a whole big deal out of it. You like me. I won't make you say it.” I’ll probably go with that. He’ll get a kick out of it.)

Carolina at Minnesota

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Steve Smith is back and goes right into any lineup. With Jake Delhomme (a solid start this week, you can play him over any QB not named Romo, Cutler, Brees, Roethlisberger McNabb or Warner) under center Smith is a top 10 WR. I would play Jonathan Stewart this week (over any Patriots back or Steve Slaton, for example) despite the fact that he is splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams. Stewart showcased his skills last week vs. the Bears, rushing for 76 yards and a pair of TDs in the second half. For the Vikings the only play I would advocate is Adrian Peterson, who, if healthy, will lead the NFL in rushing this season. If he develops as a receiver this season (he matched a career-best with four catches last week) there is no doubt that he is the top pick of any 2009 draft.

Avoid if You Can:

Replacing Tarvaris Jackson with Gus Freotte is the equivalent of switching “Worth Winning” with “The Presidio” in a Mark Harmon Film Festival. I don’t think DeAngelo Williams will get much more than the 11 carries he received last week. Mushin Muhammad’s value takes a huge dive with the return of Smith.

New Orleans at Denver

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Let us take a moment to drink in the greatness that is (or soon will be) Jay Cutler. A few more performances like the one he authored on Sunday and he will turn the 2006 Mr. Olympia into the “other” Jay Cutler. I think the Broncos go 11-5 this season and Cutler wins MVP. The Kool-Aid is officially empty. You have to love Brandon Marshall this week (duh). Although he missed Week 1 he still leads the NFL in catches with 18 (by the way, if Shanahan had decided to kick the extra point and forced OT I’m thinking Marshall would’ve broke the record for catches in a game, which held by Owens at 20) and seems a sure bet to crack the century mark again. I do think Eddie Royal is seriously hurt by Marshall, but Cutler did look to him for the two biggest plays of the game last week. This game Sunday has a shootout feel to it and a 100-yard game from the rookie is possible. If you own him and need a WR or flex I’d put him in. Same goes for Tony Scheffler, who looks like he could be a top eight tight end this season. For the Saints, Brees remains an every-week start. Same goes for Reggie Bush in a PPR league. The guy is basically a wide receiver at this point. Anything he gives you on the ground is a bonus. Safe to call Jeremy Shockey (eight catches, 76 yards) a mild disappointment so far? I think he comes through with a big game Sunday.

Avoid if You Can:

I just don’t think anyone in that Denver backfield gets enough touches to be trusted. If you had to play one I guess Selvin Young is the best option, but he gets no love on the goal line (Michael Pittman). I expected someone to step up and take some of Marques Colston’s catches last week but it didn’t happen. No Saints WR is worthy of a start this weekend.

Detroit at San Francisco

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

The Lions (0-2 and on their way to 2-14) have fallen way behind early in both losses, forcing them to throw and throw some more, which of course is a good thing if you own Calvin Johnson, who has thus far fulfilled the promise of his monster preseason (he is on pace for 104 catches and 1,888 yards). Detroit doesn’t seem to have a ton of faith in Kevin Smith but I think he’s a good start this week. This should be a close game so look for Smith to get 20 carries vs. a 49ers D that allowed 126 yards to Julius Jones last week. He has shown that he can catch the ball as well (four receptions in each game) so 120 total yards and a score seems within reach. Frank Gore has been terrific for the 49ers in the first two weeks (250 yards of total offense).

Avoid if You Can:

Don’t like Jon Kitna this week. Again, it’s going to be a tight game and he’s not going to throw the ball 40 times against soft coverage. I’m worried about Roy Williams. I thought he might be a solid 1A to Calvin Johnson but that hasn’t happened. All the Lions have done the first two weeks is throw the ball and Williams has just six catches? If you are short a WR this weekend Bryant Johnson is not a bad sleeper. The Detroit secondary is awful and Johnson looks like he’s going to be J.T. O’Sullivan’s main target. He’s a risky start but he could pay off. The same can’t be said for Vernon Davis. I’m starting to think it might just not happen with this guy (see: Maroney, Laurence). Zero catches last week in a game with 63 points?

St. Louis at Seattle

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Steven Jackson really hasn’t had a chance to run the ball much (the Rams have been Blown Away Nicole Eggert-style in the first two weeks), but Jackson owners must have been pleased with his seven catches vs. the Giants last Sunday. Torry Holt also had a nice game vs. the Giants, catching six for 76 and a score. Julius Jones stepped up in the absence of Maurice Morris and produced big-time for the Seahawks last week and should get another 25 or so carries on Sunday. In today’s NFL that alone is worth a start.

Avoid if You Can:

It’s kind of hard to believe that in 2008 Kurt Warner is far more valuable as a fantasy (and reality) QB than Bulger, who played so well in 2002 that the Rams couldn’t get rid of Warner fast enough. It also seems strange that Matt Hasselbeck is not a solid play, but the Seahawks have nobody healthy at WR right now.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder is reason to worry, but as long as he is under center for the Steelers he is a top fantasy start. His QB rating so far this season is an astronomical 136.3. Both of his top WRs should be starts as well. Santonio Holmes was quiet in Week 1 but bounced back with a 94-yard effort vs. the Browns last week. Hines Ward seems a good bet for at least five catches and a score in what should be a high-scoring battle vs. the Eagles on Sunday. I assumed that Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall would split time this season. Parker has simply played far too well (a pair of 100-yard games, three TDs) to allow that to happen. For the Eagles, Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are no doubters. I’m sure DeSean Jackson killed some teams Monday Night but it seems that he will be the No. 1 wideout for McNabb.

Avoid if You Can:

The Steelers are pretty cut and dry, but the Eagles have a few options. Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett are high-risk, high-reward plays. I like Lewis as the better play Sunday but I can’t endorse that notion with any weight. The truth is that he (and Baskett) are just as likely to catch one pass in a game as they five or six. Still don’t know what happened to L.J. Smith vs. the Cowboys (one catch, 10 yards).

Cleveland at Baltimore

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Is there a better buy-low candidate than Braylon Edwards? He’s going to get going; it really is just a question of when. If you have a WR off to a hot start (DeSean Jackson, Santana Moss, that kind of guy) see if you can put a package together to land Edwards. Kellen Winslow is the only other Cleveland player you have to start this week. For the Ravens, Derrick Mason is a fine play if you need a WR. I think Joe Flacco will rely on him as a security blanket. Six or seven catches sounds about right.

Avoid if You Can:

You can’t like either Derek Anderson or Jamal Lewis against the Ravens D this week. How about Matt Cassel as a better play than Anderson in Week 3? Lewis appears to have reverted to the 3.5 yards per carry form that led to his release in Baltimore. One catch from Todd Heap in Week 1 doesn’t inspire confidence in a comeback season. I would wait a week or two and see how the running back situation plays out for the Ravens. Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain combined for 41 carries in Week 1 and both ran the ball well. Willis McGahee joins the fold Sunday and will steal some time from both guys.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Maurice Jones-Drew gets one more week in the lineup before you start to think about pulling the plug. I think he’ll catch a bunch of passes out of the backfield vs. the Colts. Is this the season that the Jags actually develop a 70-catch receiver? Matt Jones is off to a strong start and isn’t a bad flex option this week. Are you really going to bench Peyton Manning? There is just WAY too much history to ignore here. Just leave Manning alone and he will get you 30+ TDs and 4,000 yards. Joseph Addai is in the same boat as Manning. He’ll be just fine. Reggie Wayne is the one member of the Colts “Big Three” to meet expectations to this point (15 catches, 179 yards). Anthony Gonzalez stepped up last week and should continue to shine if Dallas Clark is out again on Sunday

Avoid if You Can:       

Fred Taylor may return to every-week status, but his 2.9 yards per carry need to improve for that to happen. Marvin Harrison caught just a single pass last Sunday and can’t be trusted to produce as a fantasy starter each week.

Dallas at Green Bay

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Jason Witten (shoulder should be fine, he practiced Wednesday) and Terrell Owens are all arguably the top players at their position (okay, Westbrook and Peterson are better than Barber but you get the point). There was significant worry in the preseason that the loss of Brett Favre would hurt Greg Jennings’ value. Not so much, as Aaron Rodgers and Jennings have connected on 11 passes for 258 yards in two games. If you own Rodgers and want to play him this week it’s hard to argue against it. A 250-yard game with two TD passes is what I’d expect.

Avoid if You Can:

Ryan Grant was lousy against a bad Lions defense last week (15 carries, 20 yards) and is questionable this week. If he is in uniform he’s tough to bench but I would do just that. I think even if he plays it will be in a limited capacity. If you are a Grant owner, make sure you pick up Brandon Jackson. If Grant is inactive Jackson becomes a pretty strong play. Felix Jones has impressed in his role as Barber’s backup but doesn’t get the rock enough to merit a spot in your lineup. By the way, I’m still getting over Tony Kornheiser calling the Cowboys “the top franchise in American sports” the other night. Forget the dry cleaning, that is the truly offensive comment. Here’s a tip: When the Florida Marlins have won a pair of World Series since your last playoff win (1996), it’s tough to be the standard in professional sports.

New York Jets at San Diego

Must Plays (Or Pretty Close):

Thomas Jones is among a handful of guys who will almost certainly get 20-25 touches a week. He has already equaled his 2007 TD total (just one, fine, but he has equaled it). LaDainian Tomlinson has to be played if he’s active. It’s very possible that he repeats last week’s effort (10 carries, 26 yards, on and off the field virtually the entire game), but there is also the chance that he will go off for 150 yards and three TDs. If Tomlinson isn’t in uniform Darren Sproles will get the majority of snaps. He was outstanding last week (125 total yards) and would have to be considered a must play. Antonio Gates has been consistent (four catches, 61 yards in both games) if not spectacular and is an obvious play. Philip Rivers and Chris Chambers connected on a pair of TDs last week and both guys are solid options on Monday Night.

Avoid if You Can:

Would you rather have Brett Favre or Rivers as your fantasy QB Monday? I think Favre is a middle of the pack option this week. Jerricho Cotchery caught just one pass vs. the Pats last week and clearly hasn’t jelled with Favre yet. Ditto for Laveranues Coles (just four catches in two games). Can Vincent Jackson step up and play well in back-to-back games? I need to see that before I can green light him as a play.

Kirk Minihane, WEEI.com Contributor, is the resident Fantasy Football expert for WEEI.com.