Probably too late to mention that I did like Pierre Thomas as a start this week.
Here are my five fantasy locks for Week 15 (and a bunch of other starts and avoids). Remember, it is playoff time. No loyalty needed. No need to start Larry Johnson over Dominic Rhodes because you used (wasted) a second-rounder on LJ and Rhodes wasn’t drafted. That was August. Sweet August, when the weather was warm and we still had hopes for such TV shows as “My Own Worst Enemy” and “The Ex List”.
Remember: If it’s close between two guys, always go with the better matchup. That’s why I liked Cassel over Romo last week. It’s why I like Tyler Thigpen over Jay Cutler this week.
Here we go. As always, fire away at kminihane@weei.com if you feel the urge.
1. Dominic Rhodes rushes for 100 yards and a score.
Looks like Joseph Addai (shoulder) will be limited at best vs. the Lions on Sunday. Rhodes (owned 47 percent of Yahoo! leagues) is an absolute must-start against a defense ranked last vs. the run (allowing 173.5 yards per game). Truth be told, I don’t think the Colts lose much, if anything, with Rhodes in the lineup. He’s been every bit as productive as Addai on the ground in 2008, and has 35 catches to Addai’s 23. If Rhodes is the main back Sunday I think he’s a top-five RB for Week 15.
2. Donovan McNabb throws for 270 yards and two TDs.
I’m thinking that we won’t need a press conference from Andy Reid to announce McNabb as a starter this week. The Browns (have lost five of six) have packed it in for the season and this game has a “38-10” feel to it. Should be a nice week as well for Westbrook owners.
McNabb’s QB rating for Monday will be higher than the combined total of the two QB’s in the Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdown (league’s top two passing defenses). The Steelers only weakness is that lousy offensive line, and it will let Roethlisberger down again on Sunday. And I can’t stress this point enough—do not start a QB against the Steelers. Cassel was on fire going into the Pittsburgh game. Romo has posted back-to-back weeks with a 113 QB rating heading into last week. Doesn’t matter. This is an all-time great defense. You’ll see me buying a “Best of Fitzy” DVD before I start a QB vs. Pittsburgh. Over/Under for Flacco picks Sunday is 3.5. Flacco is getting lumped in with Matt Ryan a little too much for my liking. I keep reading about the two young QBs. The truth is that Flacco has been average (which is no small feat for a rookie) while Ryan has performed at a Pro Bowl level.
Flacco: 13 TDs, 10 INT, 2,410 yards passing, 81.3 rating
Ryan: 14 TDs, 7 INT, 2,940 yards passing, 92.0 rating
Don Banks (who I usually agree with) had a 2008 draft do-over yesterday on cnnsi. He had Ryan going first to Miami, which makes sense. But Flacco second? I don’t know, Jake Long looks like a 10-time Pro Bowler, right? Would it shock anyone if Flacco turns out to be just decent?
3. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both score vs. Denver.
Williams has been the best running back in the NFL during the second half of the season, averaging 121 yards over his last six games. The one time he didn’t crack the century mark? Week 13, and all he did there was rush for four TDs. He is on pace for 1,404 yards, remarkable when you consider that he has one game this season with over 20 rushing attempts. He’s clearly a superb play this week against Denver, which stands 26th vs. the run.
I also like Stewart this week. He’ll get 12-15 carries and rush for 50-60 yards and a score. He’s quietly averaging 4.9 YPC with eight TDs on the season. It’ll be interesting to see if his develops into a straight spilt next season for the Panthers.
4. Larry Johnson rushes for 28 yards vs. the Chargers.
Here’s just a few guys I’d start over LJ this week (Chargers stink vs. the pass but have been tough against the run). Kevin Faulk. Sammy Morris. Stewart. Rhodes. Maurice Morris. Tashard Choice (if Barber is out).
The Chiefs are going to throw all day vs. San Diego (30th vs. the pass). The reality is that Tyler Thigpen is a far more viable fantasy start than is Johnson. Another reality is that Mike Dowling has moved up a spot on the list of “Boston’s Sexiest Sportscasters”.
5. Both Sammy and Maurice Morris have big weeks.
A TD in two straight games for Sammy, and he gets a shot at an Oakland run D that ranks 30th (159 yards per game). Don’t expect 25 carries, but 15 touches with the majority of goal line looks should be more than enough to warrant a flex spot. Pats win 24-10, by the way, and pull even with the Ravens (who lose 14-10 to Pittsburgh).
(Since we’re on the Pats, how about Dick Enberg calling the game last week? In one 10-minute sequence he called Wes Welker “a three-year Patriot,” suggested the 49ers were in the AFC West and was way off on a pair of down and distance calls. We are far beyond “Summerall in 2001” with Enberg at this point. Put it this way: Any team with Dick Enberg on it would be the first team eliminated on “The Amazing Race.” And I need more than that from a network announcer. And what’s with this stuff that Belichick and Holmgren are “good friends”? Do we have a shred of proof about this? Enberg made them out to be Paul Giamatti and Thomas Haden Church.)
Maurice hasn’t done much in the past two weeks but should get the bulk of the carries for Seattle against a brutal St. Louis D in this week’s “Criqui and Trumpy” matchup. I think 80 yards of total offense and a score is within reason.
I understand that Felger thinks that Deion Branch is better than Randy Moss and that’s swell and all, but don’t expect another two-TD game this weekend. I think he’s a decent flex play, though, and five or six catches for 60-70 yards is a realistic projection.
Kirk Minihane, WEEI.com Contributor, is the resident Fantasy Football expert for WEEI.com.
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