Is there a better play in fantasy football this week than the New York Jets defense?
If you haven’t been paying attention, here’s what has been going on with the Jets opponent for the week — the Kansas City Chiefs.
1. No Larry Johnson this week. (Apparently a big Bill Romanowki fan, Johnson decided to spit on someone recently. I guess he couldn’t find J.J. Stokes, so he picked a woman at a nightclub instead. His fourth alleged assault on a female in the last five years. But Herm Edwards makes men of boys.) Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles don’t exactly evoke memories of Larry Johnson/Priest Holmes as a running back duo in Kansas City (the Chiefs rank 20th in the NFL in rushing even with Johnson so far in 2008).
2. Both Brodie Croyle (ACL, MCL) and Damon Huard (thumb) are out for the season. That means that Tyler Thigpen will be under center this week. Thigpen so far in 2008? 42.2 percent completion mark and a 44.3 passer rating. You figure there’s a pretty good chance he could be replaced if (when) he’s ineffective, right? The problem with that is the backup QB for the week will be Ingle Martin. I don’t know a lot, but I do know that someone with the name Ingle Martin cannot be a good NFL quarterback. There are just certain athletes that don’t pass the test on name alone. Brett Szabo. Granville Waiters. Dick Hoover (pitched two games for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1952). I’m pretty sure we can add ol’Ingle to the list (the champion exception to the rule? Has to be Gaylord Perry). The great QBs have names that sound cool on NFL Films. Bart Starr. Otto Graham. Joe Montana. Johnny Unitas. Shane Falco. I’m afraid Ingle Martin is out (though Matt Cassel is a pretty good name for a QB, just hope it’s not wasted).
3. Herm Edwards is the coach. According to his Wikipedia page, Edwards has never used the internet and doesn’t know how to use a cell phone. That’s the kind of forward thinking the Chiefs must have liked when they gave up a draft pick to bring Herm to town in 2006.
I suppose this isn’t simply an anti-Kansas City play, as the Jets have been decent on defense the past two weeks (albeit against Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Bengals and JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders), collecting a total of seven sacks and allowing just 30 points in total. I know this is the same unit that got torched by the Chargers and Cardinals earlier in the season, but they’ll get to Thigpen and force some turnovers (and there is a chance of rain and wind in East Rutherford on Sunday) and maybe post a TD. This has 31-7 written all over it. It’s my Stu Feiner Lock of the Week.
THREE OTHER SOLID PLAYS FOR WEEK 8
Although he has been unable to unseat Mike Piazza for the top spot on the “Athletes who have had to publicly declare that they are not gay” list, Jeff Garcia continues to be a strong fantasy start at QB. I touted him last week vs. the Seahawks, and he delivered with 310 yards passing and a TD toss (no picks in 36 attempts for a 109.7 passer rating). Tampa Bay faces the struggling Cowboys on Sunday (allowed a 119.0 passer rating to Marc Bulger last week), and I think a 220-yard, two-TD passing effort from Garcia is a fair expectation. (Another QB I like this week? Jason Campbell. He gets the Lions (31st vs. the pass) this week. Should be a good play if you need QB (Rodgers, Orton and Cutler all have bye weeks, and Romo is out. Still strange to think that Kyle Orton owners might need a backup plan because HE has a bye week.)
Both Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) and Laveranues Coles (head, thigh) missed practice for the Jets on Wednesday and are questionable for the game with KC on Sunday. If either is out I think Chansi Stuckey becomes a really strong option. The Jets are throwing the ball all over the field now that Brett Favre is acclimated to the offense (36.7 pass attempts in last four games) and you have to figure New York is going to have a host of scoring opportunities vs. the Chiefs defense (ranked 31st in the NFL). Again, I’d only play Stuckey if Coles or Cotchery are out, but if that is the case I’d expect five or six catches for 60-70 yards and a TD.
Another defense I like this week is San Francisco. Looks like Matt Hasselbeck is out again this week, so this is strictly an anti-Seneca Wallace play (how bad did he look on Sunday night vs. Tampa Bay?). If you own Patrick Willis in an IDP league enjoy what should be another huge effort.
E-MAIL OF THE WEEK
I'm in a 12-team keeper league (5-2 this season, Matt Forte and Greg Jennings have been huge). Here's my question: I can keep three players. I'm going to hold on to Jennings and Jason Witten (you are right- TEs are terrible and he's so much better than the average) but who would you keep between Forte and Tom Brady?
Thanks,
Dan (Cooperstown, NY)
You never think of people actually living in Cooperstown. If you grew up there, do you ever go to the Hall of Fame? Would you take a date in high school there? (“Is this Burleigh Grimes bust doing anything for you?” )
But Forte v. Brady. That’s a tough one. I’ve been a huge advocate of Forte since the preseason (picked him as Rookie of the Year), and he has been better than I had hoped (on pace for 1,686 yards of total offense, 14 TDs and 66 catches). He’s also served as the clear-cut No. 1 back for the Bears since the first series of the season in a league loaded with spilt carries in the backfield. I would think he’ll be a late-first to early-second round pick in most 2009 fantasy drafts. And he’s 23 years old.
It’s starting to look like Dr. Nick Riviera wasn’t the right choice for Brady’s ACL surgery. Assuming Brady returns to the field for the start of the 2009 season, what is a reasonable expectation for his performance? We know that his 2007 season was once in a lifetime, but can he post 2006 numbers (3,529 yards, 24 TDs)? Remember, Welker and Moss will still be around. It’s possible he’ll still be a top QB, but who knows? And Brady will be 32 when the 2009 season starts. I’m guessing he’ll be a fourth or fifth round pick in drafts.
Forte is a pretty clear choice at this point. Maybe things will change between now and when keepers have to be announced. The problem with that, of course, is that Belichick is not going to give Brady a lot of action in preseason games. So it’s Forte.
But I’d keep Brady (Tom, Kyle or Wayne) over Laurence Maroney.
Kirk Minihane is the Fantasy Football writer for WEEI.com.
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