How did we get here?

At 4 p.m on Tuesday -- barring a final-hour agreement between Wes Welker and the Patriots -- the player with the most catches over a six-year period in NFL history is going to be a free agent. 

Welker was second in the league last year with 118 catches, the fifth time in six seasons he has had more than 110 receptions. No other player in NFL history has more than two 110-catch seasons. Since joining the Patriots in 2007 Welker has played 16, 16, 14, 15, 16 and 16 games. He's durable, tough, willing to do anything asked of him by his coaches, seemingly beloved by his teammates and historically productive.

And there's a chance he's going to be playing for another team in 2013. 

I understand there are salary cap issues involved and moving pieces and 5,000 other factors, but if the Patriots let Wes Welker walk it'll be a critical mistake. Lots of times we don't know what right or wrong is, but lots of times we do, and this would be one. 

If Welker (who, according to several reports, still is likely to re-sign with the Patriots) gets blown away by an offer from Team X -- we've all heard the suspects, Broncos, Cowboys, Colts -- and it's significantly more than what Bill Belichick views as value for Welker, so be it. Thanks for the memories, good luck, all that. But if it's close -- and Welker allows the Patriots the opportunity to match -- the Patriots would be doing themselves an injustice not to bring Welker back.

I have no idea, really, about the personal relationship between Belichick and Welker and what role it has or has not played in getting us to where we are in this whole thing. Maybe the two hate each other, maybe the two love each other (probably, as almost always, it's somewhere in the middle), maybe it's a blizzard of indifference. 

My best guess is personal feelings -- the Rex Ryan jokes, the "freezing out" of Welker early last season -- has played very little factor from a Patriots perspective. I don't think Belichick is particularly interested in revenge, it really does seem a question of value. How much is a slot receiver -- even the best slot receiver in history -- worth? 

(Maybe Welker, as some have speculated, wants out of New England, wants to be free of Belichick, stick it to him and finally be freed of all the "creative" restrictions that accompany Life With Bill. Again, who knows, but I'm operating under the assumption that Welker's top choice -- with everything close to equal -- is the Patriots)

Vincent Jackson — who has caught 314 passes since the start of the 2007 season, or 358 fewer than Welker — signed a $55 million contract ($26 million guaranteed) a year ago. Pierre Garcon has played five NFL seasons and has fewer eight fewer catches than Welker's last two years. He's in the second year of a $42.5 million deal with the Redskins ($21.5 million guaranteed). Welker is a different receiver, obviously (same goes with any Mike Wallace comparison) but is there anyone who would rather have Jackson or Garcon over Welker on Welker's worst day (drops and all)?

One year ago it didn't make a lot of business sense to pay Welker what he deserved for three or four years, you could slap him with the franchise tag and wait and see what happens. Well, turned out that Welker was still one of the half dozen or so best receivers in the league. So now, since the Patriots elected not to franchise him again, it's time to get paid. And, given his age and the miles on the tires, this could be Welker's one swing at serious guaranteed money. 

And the Patriots have to step up. There is money to spend, there is room under the cap (with the help of Tom Brady) to bring back Welker at market value and still add the necessary pieces. Danny Amendola -- 12 games in the last two years and not Wes Welker when he's healthy -- isn't the answer. I think we've learned that Julian Edelman isn't Wes Welker, he's not even a passable lead singer in a Wes Welker cover band. The experiments should be done, Welker isn't one of the guys you mess around with. Sign him to what is fair and move on.

Welker isn't a product of the system, he's helped make the system (and he'll catch 100-plus in Dallas or Indy -- he caught 67 passes with Joey Harrington and Cleo Lemon in 2006 with the Dolphins). The Patriots started scoring 500 points a season when Welker and Randy Moss arrived and they are still scoring 500 points a year. The window isn't closing on Tom Brady, but if you squint just a little and tilt your head that way you can almost see the end. And you are doing your franchise quarterback -- one of the two or three best in history -- more than a disservice if you take Welker away and replace him for (literally) 40 cents on the dollar. This is a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations for the next couple of years and losing Welker weakens that prospect. 

Call me a simpleton, but the best way to win football games is still with great players, right? By the strictest definition Welker has been and remains a great football player, one who wants to stay with the Patriots and with Tom Brady.

The call is simple: Sign Wes Welker.