I have no idea which team will represent the National Football Conference (though the Seahawks sure look like a really, really tough out) but I know who they'll be facing.

The Patriots are going back to the Super Bowl.

The greatest coach-quarterback combination in football history -- sorry to Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr, Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw and Bill Walsh and Joe Montana but I'll go with 12 years of dominance in an era of free agency, indeed an era that was constructed to avoid exactly what you've seen from the Patriots since 2001 -- are going to get a sixth chance to compete for the Lombardi Trophy. 

After a 28-0 win over the Dolphins on Sunday, a victory that had a distinct 2003-2004 feel to it, the Patriots finished the season 12-4 and the AFC East champions by five games (they won the division by five games last season and there is no reason to think they won't win by at least five games next season -- the Jets and Bills are going backwards fast and I'm not ready to buy Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin). 

But the real headline, of course, was the move from No. 3 to the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, a jump that gives this team a week off and at least one home game, thanks to a 28-16 win by the Colts over the collapsing Texans.

(It says here that the Bengals beat the Texans next week, but if Houston finds a way to best the Socratic wonder that is Marvin Lewis and get another crack at the Patriots, a very big reason they'll be doing it in 16-degree weather at Gillette and not at home, indoors, is because of some serious boobery from Gary Kubiak in the fourth quarter against the Colts on Sunday. The Texans were trailing 21-16 with just over 13 minutes left when Matt Schaub was sacked for an eight-yard loss on 3rd-and-4 at the Colts 27. So on 4th-and-12 from the Indy 35, Kubiak sends out the punter. Absolutely the right move, the Texans had held the Colts to two straight three-and-outs and Shayne Graham is a career 27 percent kicker from 50-plus yards. Pin them inside the 20-yard line, take your chances with your defense and the promise of terrific field position. 

Except this happened: Kubiak calls a timeout -- something I'd view as valuable currency in the fourth-quarter of a five-point game -- yanks the punter and brings in Graham, who promptly is short and right on the field goal. Four plays later Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton for a touchdown and it's 28-16 and the game has a totally different outlook. Just breathtakingly inept stuff from Kubiak, and would it surprise you at all to know that the move wasn't first or second-guessed by Dan Dierdorf?)

I don't think this is a perfect Patriots team, not as good as we thought the 2003, 2004, 2007 or 2010 teams were heading into the playoffs. We know about the concerns that still exist on defense -- though it's worth noting that they allowed at least 20 points in six of seven games from Week 3 through Week 11 and have allowed at least 20 points just once since -- and there always injuries (led by Rob Ninkovich, which is the story of the next two weeks).

But I'll just ask this: Which AFC team is going to beat them? Let's start from the bottom and work out way up. You wouldn't see the Bengals until the  AFC title game, anyone think Marvin Lewis is going to come to Foxboro and knock off Bill Belichick and Tom Brady? The Colts are the story of the year -- and could easily go into Baltimore and win this weekend -- but this is a team that was outscored by 30 points this season, allowed 387 points, was a .500 team on the road and gave up 59 points to the Patriots six weeks ago. The Ravens cannot be overlooked, and Joe Flacco has played well against the Patriots in his last two games, but their defense simply is no longer good enough to beat the Patriots on the road in January. The Texans were quietly starting to shed a little before the Patriots exposed them in front of the football world -- they had allowed a combined 68 points and 983 yards to the Jaguars and Lions -- and have lost two of three in the aftermath of the 42-14 (and it wasn't that close) loss. 

That leaves Peyton Manning and the Broncos, the deserving No. 1 seed in the AFC. Manning is one of the three or four greatest quarterbacks in history and is having a truly remarkable season, he's the MVP in an Adrian Peterson-less world. I don't care that the Broncos don't have a "signature" win during this 11-game streak, it's impressive enough to beat 11 terrible teams in a row (and wins over New Orleans, at Cincy and at Baltimore isn't shabby). 

But here's why the Broncos -- even at home -- will lose to the team that owns the last win over them. I think Peyton Manning will put up numbers against the New England defense, will have his moments -- but I'm sure Tom Brady will carve up the Denver defense. Brady has played the Broncos three times over the last 13 months (twice at home) and is 72-of-99 for 904 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception in three wins. The Broncos have a top-five defense and some A-list players, but they have demonstrated zero ability to slow down Brady and this offense, let alone stop it. 

And that's why Brady and Belichick will be back in New Orleans.