Probably by now you've seen the Sporting News poll of 103 NFL players earlier this week that asked this question:
Who is the most overrated head coach in the NFL today?
Players couldn't vote for their own coach, it should be noted. The winner? Rex Ryan, easily. No surprise there, he's dug his own grave for this kind of stuff. Andy Reid was third, Mike Shanahan fourth, Mike Tomlin fifth.
But it was the inclusion of Bill Belichick in the second spot that caused a mini-controversy around here the last day or two.
Bill Belichick hasn't won a Super Bowl since 2004. Bill Belichick has lost two Super Bowls to Tom Coughlin. Spygate. The years in Cleveland and the first year in New England. There is evidence, but is it true? Is Belichick overrated?
If we are going to have this debate, we have to first figure out what the perception is of him both currently and historically, right? Put it another way: We have to determine where he is actually rated before we start digging.
I would guess if you asked those same 103 players to name the best coach in the NFL today Belichick would be a clear winner. If you polled any serious group of "insiders" and asked that question Belichick would come out on top. At the very worst, he's looked at as one of the two or three coaches in the NFL on November 8, 2012.
Historically? Well, that's a different story. Some think Belichick is the greatest coach in NFL history -- five Super Bowl appearances in the toughest era (by far) to keep a team together, a decade-plus at the very top in a league where it's almost impossible to be good for two, three years in a row. The Patriots haven't had a losing season since 2000. The other three AFC East teams have combined for 18 losing seasons during the same span. Belichick has won 16 playoff games in New England -- the Jets have 13 playoff wins as a franchise, the Dolphins have three playoff wins in the last 17 years. I'm just picking these teams because they are divisional foes, you can around the league and it's the same. The Patriots have been dominant for over a decade during an era that has otherwise proven to be resistant to consistency.
Others will tell you the debate for Greatest of All Time starts and ends with Vince Lombardi. There can be cases made for Bill Walsh, Don Shula, Chuck Noll, Paul Brown, Joe Gibbs, we know all the candidates.
But there is no question that Belichick is in the conversation. You can put him first, fifth, ninth, but he's in there. Three Super Bowls, five AFC titles, the most wins in any 10-year stretch in history, the 21 straight wins, nine division titles in 11 years and all of it done in the Parity Years. If you are having the debate his name has to be raised -- there's just too much there to argue otherwise.
So how, exactly, does a coach with three Super Bowls and a .720 winning percentage over the last 13 years wind up with the silver medal in the overrated Olympics? Two reasons stand out:
The Brady Factor: We've all heard it. What's Belichick done without Tom Brady? Well, not much at all. He was 36-44 in five years in Cleveland with one playoff win and was 5-12 with the Patriots when Mo Lewis blasted Drew Bledsoe. That's a perfectly fair criticism, I suppose, and I'd agree with this -- if Tom Brady had been drafted by the Lions or Browns and the Patriots had picked Tee Martin a round earlier Bill Belichick today is probably either a defensive coordinator, in the middle of his third head coaching job or a surprisingly good analyst on CBS or Fox. But that's how it works -- you need a great quarterback to create a dynasty. The Packers had Starr, the Steelers had Bradshaw, the 49ers had Montana, the Cowboys had Aikman. It's what you do with the great quarterback that matters. And Belichick is the only coach that has completely flipped his team around that quarterback and kept winning -- Brady is all that is left from 2001. Walsh didn't do that, Lombardi didn't, Landry didn't win after Staubach, Noll didn't coach a postseason game the last seven years of his career.
Now, if Belichick sticks around after Brady retires and struggles for five, six years I'd be OK with the overrated label, or at the very least a historical re-examination. I think we all feel different about where Mike Shanahan sits at the table now that he's won one playoff games in 13 years without John Elway. But that has to actually happen before we can call Belichick overrated -- we just can't assume he's going to fail. Plus he did win 11 games with Matt Cassel -- not exactly setting records in Kansas City -- four years ago. And I firmly reject the idea that any coach would win with Brady. You think Norv Turner would have coached this team to five Super Bowls? Jason Garrett? Pete Carroll?
Envy: Look, it's not a mystery. The same poll has Belichick ranked second among coaches players would most like to play for and the Patriots as the best organization in the NFL. Guys want to win, and it's really, really tough to win in the NFL. But the Patriots do it every year. They don't win Super Bowls every year, true, but 10-plus wins and a home playoff game or two is the standard. What other franchise, right now, can make that claim? And if I'm a player in Jacksonville or Cleveland or Miami or Minnesota that's exactly why I'd list the Patriots as the team I'd want to play for and Belichick as the most overrated coach. Same motivation -- jealousy.
Does he win without Brady? Nope. Has he had the postseason success the last seven years to match his first four seasons in New England? Nope. Has he made some serious misjudgments regarding certain players in free agency? Sure (though that's not about Belichick the coach). Does he come across as likeable all the time? Not so much.
Flawed? Sure, what coach isn't? But is Bill Belichick overrated? Not even close.
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