INDIANAPOLIS -- The Giants are going to win Super Bowl XLVI. 

We'll get to why in a moment, but first let's debunk a couple of myths.

The idea that the Patriots are going to win because Bill Belichick has treated the media like actual human beings this week is as dopey as it is unprovable. I have no problem with Belichick giving the media almost zilch all the time, I really don't. If I ran an organization, his approach would be the model. How does it benefit him or his team to give away anything? But to turn a couple of jokes and smiles and colorful ties into some case for supreme confidence is a serious reach. That strikes as something some people simply want to be true with absolutely no way of knowing.

I'm sure Belichick thinks he's going to win on Sunday, as he should. This is a terrific football team with a Hall of Fame quarterback, a top two or three offense in the NFL and a defense that is peaking at the right time. I suspect if Belichick refused to speak to the media all week it would also mean nothing regarding his level of confidence.

And it's a long two weeks and it's tough to fill the pages, but how can anyone realistically pick the Patriots to win this game based on the difficulty of beating Brady and Belichick the second time around? The Giants did it four years ago, the Ravens did it in 2009 and the Jets did it last year. Again, I've been admittedly stuck in the middle of media scrum after media scrum all week, but this appears to be a theme with some legs. If you're picking the Patriots, you have to do better than that.

I never met her, but everyone I've spoken to about Myra Kraft has told me that she was just a tremendous person, truly a beloved figure and the subject of a million stories of generosity and kindness. In this city, with this media, to have a 100 percent approval rating is impossible, but she pulled it off. But it borders on offensive to suggest that the Patriots will beat the Giants because of her passing, that there is some higher power at work. I'm sure it would thrill the players and coaches to win one for the boss in the toughest year of his life, but I simply reject the notion that God or Jesus or whatever you believe in cares about the Super Bowl. My guess is someone in the Giants organization lost a brother or uncle or father or best friend this year. I just don't see the difference.

So let's put all that stuff aside and try to look at the football game itself. I've gone back and forth plenty on this game all week. This isn't the 49ers over the Chargers in 1994, this is about as even a matchup as you're going to get. I think this is the best team the Patriots have played all season, but I also think this Patriots team is playing at its highest level and is the best the Giants have played this season. It seems everyone is picking this to be a close game, and I don't see how you can look at it any other way unless you are going the forced contrarian route. 

I think this is simply a lousy matchup for the Patriots. I would've picked them against the 49ers, Packers or Saints. I think they would have outscored Green Bay and New Orleans and made enough plays against Alex Smith. All three of those teams had glaring flaws. The Giants do not.

As we saw against San Francisco -- maybe the league's best defense -- New York's offensive line isn't perfect. The running game is inconsistent at times, though the two best rushers on the team were right around four yards per carry and they did rush for 111 yards in the win over the Patriots in November. This is a team that went 9-7 for a reason, and the two losses to Washington and a home loss to Seattle is frankly hard to defend.

But that's not the same team we've seen in the playoffs. Eli Manning has been the best quarterback in the postseason, and Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are going to be too much for this secondary. Don't forget, Eli went up and down the field in the fourth quarter of that game in Foxboro without Nicks. 

On a historical level, Cooper Manning is closer to Eli Manning than Eli is to Tom Brady. Eli is very good, maybe ready to move up a floor or two. But Brady is on Mount Rushmore. If I could have my pick against the same defense, it's Brady every time. But ask yourself this: If Brady played against this Giants defense 16 times a year and Eli played against this Patriots defense 16 times a year, who would finish with the better numbers? The Patriots have the better quarterback, but I think Eli will have the better game.

Why? Because the Giants are going to get pressure on Brady, and it'll be consistent. This is as good a front four as the Patriots have seen since the Super Bowl four years ago. And at the end of the day Brady is like every other quarterback in this regard -- you knock him down a lot and he's going to struggle. Happened in the three playoff losses and I think it'll happen again on Sunday. I know it's boring, I know it's cliche, but it all comes down to the offensive line. And this is a solid, professional group that ultimately falls short when matched against Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. 

I've written all season that this a "Lombardi Trophy or Bust" year for the Patriots. And in a legacy sense that's probably true for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Nobody knows how many career passing yards Joe Montana has or the number of regular-season wins for Vince Lombardi. It's all about titles for those two guys now. But a Patriots loss on Sunday, while a brutal hit for the fans, shouldn't dismiss what has been a remarkably successful season. 

To win 15 games and a conference title with this defense and some significant injuries doesn't usually happen. It's easy to be spoiled, but try to remember that in the pre-Belichick and Brady era this would be as good a team as any in franchise history. And the Pats have been buried all year and it's still happening now.

For weeks and weeks it was, "We can't judge them until the playoffs." Well, what happens? They win two playoff games -- again, no small feat -- and it's "Tebow sucks" and "The Ravens gave it away." It's always been about the other team this year, and that's a disservice to this group. 

But on Sunday it finally will be about the other team. It'll be Eli and Coughlin over Brady and Belichick once again. 

Giants 24, Patriots 20.