Isn't there always an X-factor in the postseason, a player that no one expected to make a significant contribution to a championship?
Think about it: Who was talking about J.R. Redmond (13 catches during the season) before the 2001 playoffs? Without his three catches in the OT game-winning drive vs. the Raiders and his first-down catch on the final drive against the Rams it's very possible the Patriots don't win Super Bowl XXXVI. Think a lot of WEEI talk or newspaper space was devoted to Josh Miller in the days before Super Bowl XXXIX? But his two punts inside the Philadelphia 10-yard line -- particularly one that pinned the Eagles at their own 4 with 46 seconds left in the fourth quarter of a 24-21 game -- were crucial to the title.
And it's not just the NFL, of course. We see it all the time in other sports. P.J. Brown. Glenn McDonald. Hideki Okajima pitching a pair of scoreless innings in a still-tight Game 7 of the 2007 ALCS.
If the Patriots do win Super Bowl No. 4, we know Brady and Welker and the tight ends and Wilfork and Mayo will be enormous factors. But who will play the Redmond role and give the Patriots that unexpected lift when they need it?
Let's take a look at six possible candidates.
Kevin Faulk (Odds will be X-factor: 150-1)
I suspect he has played his last NFL game. Inactive against the Bills in Week 17, just 17 carries after his return from the PUP list in October (and six of those came in his first game back vs. the Steelers -- easily the most snaps Faulk had all season, a head-scratcher from Belichick in retrospect), Faulk just doesn't have the goods anymore. That's not a knock on Faulk, he's 35 years old and coming off ACL surgery. This is how it goes. Still, a terrific career, and I stand by what I've written about Faulk in the past: There are better running backs in franchise history, but none more valuable. The Patriots Hall of Fame was created for guys like Faulk (and for people to go to Patriots Place and spend $26 bucks on a chicken sandwich, but let's refrain from cynicism).
Nate Solder (80-1)
As a pass-blocker, sure, he could play a key role by just not screwing up. Who knows what he'll become, but I think we can all agree that Solder's rookie season falls somewhere in the promising category, right? But it's as a potential pass-catcher that he enters the X-factor conversation. He was an All-America tight end in high school and caught three passes as a freshman tight end at Colorado before making the switch to offensive line. He lined up as the third tight end at times this season -- starting with the Chargers game -- but was never targeted. Probably he won't be targeted in the postseason, either, but Solder strikes me as the clear frontrunner for the Mike Vrabel Award (random Vrabel note: He has more Super Bowl TD catches than Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison combined.)
Tiquan Underwood (50-1)
Why not? All it takes is one 56-yard catch in the third quarter of a 13-10 game to make the kind of impact to qualify for X-factor status. And I assume he'll get at least one chance to make that play, have to figure he'll get some snaps.
(The best cinematic parallel for Underwood's "I would rather be anywhere else on the planet right now" look during the Bill O'Brien-Tom Brady fight, by the way, has to be every shot of Catherine Martin stuck in Buffalo Bill's basement during "Silence of the Lambs." No other candidates.)
Rob Ninkovich (25-1)
Here's a stat that means absolutely nothing, No. 14,890: Only two NFL players had at least six sacks and two interceptions this season: Terrell Suggs and Rob Ninkovich. Well, not quite meaningless, I guess. Ninkovich was horrendous in run coverage the last time the Pats played the Broncos, sealed out on both the 19-yard run by Willis McGahee and 25-yard rush by Jeremiah Johnson on the opening drive of the game, a nine-play, 80-yard drive that ended with Tebow shrugging off Ninkovich and running in the end zone from eight yards out. Ninkovich also whiffed on a pair of opportunities to tackle Lance Ball before he broke off big gainers. So, I'd look at Ninkovich as a legitimate concern for the Patriots on Saturday, something to keep an eye on. But Ninkovich also is a very real threat to get to the quarterback and create turnovers. A Ninkovich sack and fumble forced on a Joe Flacco or Drew Brees (or even a sack that turns a second-and-8 into a third-and-18 on the final drive of a field goal game, the kind of play forgotten three years later) is X-factor stuff, and he's the best under-the-radar candidate on this defense to do so.
Chad Ochocinco (15-1)
Doesn't there have to be a six-catch, 70-yard game left in this guy? Can it really go this fast? Again, all it really takes is that one catch in the postseason at the right time. There's a reason David Tyree will be charging $20 for his autograph at conventions for the rest of his life, and it has nothing to do with special teams prowess. There was an idea Out There earlier in the season that Ochocinco was being saved for the postseason, that the Patriots were holding back until they really needed him. That's lost some steam as we've had a four-month look at Ochocinco, who seems both miscast as a vertical-only threat and frankly terrified of Tom Brady. He's far too likable (and also not productive enough) to be compared to J.D. Drew, but that's another angle with some momentum: The massive underperformer coming through when it matters most. What's the NFL equivalent of a grand slam in Game 7 of the ALCS?
Julian Edelman (8-1)
Why? Well, he's the only player on the team with the real possibility of pulling off a game-changer on offense (I'm still waiting for the Antwaan Randle El tribute from Edelman off of a reverse -- the guy did throw for 4,997 yards and 30 TDs in college -- and have a gut feeling and gut feeling only that we'll see an Edelman pass attempting this postseason) defense and special teams. And if you've kept just one eye on Edelman in the secondary you already know -- mistakes and all -- that he's one of the three or four best players in that defensive backfield.
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