The Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

This isn't sarcasm, and there's no reason to wait for the seemingly inevitable bashing of Antwaun Molden or Devin McCourty or almost every player in the hideous Patriots secondary. 

Nope, this isn't a comparison between the championship defenses of 2003 and 2004 and this group. All I am doing here is taking a look at the AFC playoff landscape on January 10, 2012, and this is what I see: The Patriots, while (wait for it) flawed, are the best of the four remaining teams. If a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers were arriving in Foxboro fresh off a 34-14 beatdown of the Broncos would it have changed my perspective? Sure. But who cares, really? Nothing wrong with a couple of breaks here and there, it seems to me that most teams need 'em at some point in the postseason.

And I'm not predicting that the Patriots are winning the Super Bowl, either. I just don't see this team beating the Packers or Saints (and I think it'll be the Packers), I think the defense gets truly exposed against Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, the kind of whipping that will end any debate about opportunistic, scrappy and bend but don't break vs. 4,703 passing yards allowed.

But that's an argument for the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl XLVI, a game that will see the Patriots representing the AFC for the fifth time this century. And, in true WEEI.com fashion, are the three key reasons why ...

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Tom Brady Isn't Tim Tebow, T.J. Yates or Joe Flacco

I know, I know. You clicked on this to read that Tom Brady is a factor in the postseason destiny of the Patriots? What a grueling line of analysis, right? I'm sorry it's not a groundbreaking discovery, but the truth is this: The Patriots can only get to the Super Bowl if Brady plays two great games. I don't see a 14-10 win over the Ravens, say, with Brady throwing for 162 yards and two picks. Not happening. And when you take a gander at the four remaining AFC quarterbacks, isn't Brady clearly the most likely to throw for 600 yards and six or seven touchdowns over 120 minutes? I'm not saying it's anything close to a lock - we've seen the struggles in recent postseason games, and the Patriots are going to face a solid defense Saturday and, if they win, another one next week - but Brady enters the playoffs off an eight-game stretch (2,532 yards passing, 19 TD, two picks, 111.7 passer rating) that matches up with any in his career. The best player (at least in the AFC) at the most important position in sports just about at the peak of his considerable talents? That's your best case for a New England run to the Super Bowl. And yes, I know I could've written the same thing a year ago before the Jets game.

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Weapons Upgrade

Wes Welker in 2010: 86 catches, 9.9 yards per catch (lowest of his career), top five in the NFL in drops. Wes Welker in 2011: 122 catches, 12.9 yards per catch (best of his career). Aaron Hernandez in 2010: 45 catches, 563 yards. Aaron Hernandez in 2011: 79 catches, 910 yards (46 catches and 577 yards over the last eight games). Rob Gronkowski in 2010: 42 catches, 546 yards, 10 TDs. Rob Gronkowski in 2011: 90 catches, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs. A year ago we were looking at a still very good receiver having a down season coming off ACL surgery and two very promising but still rookie tight ends. Now we are looking at the league's leading receiver (an All-Pro) and the most productive tight end combination in NFL history (by over 40 catches). Yup, Deion Branch has lost some serious MPH off his fastball and it's wishful thinking and wishful thinking only to expect anything from Chad Ochocinco, but for the first time since Super Bowl XLII the Patriots will take the field with at least as many elite offensive weapons as any team in the NFL. Put it another way: Are you absolutely trading Welker/Gronkowski/Hernandez for the top three skill guys on any team remaining in the postseason?

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The Path

I wrote Monday that a loss on Saturday to Tim Tebow - the most inaccurate starting quarterback this century - and the 9-8 Broncos would the worst of the Brady/Belichick era. If you line up all the playoff opponents the Patriots have played since 2001, this is the weakest team, the one with the most obvious flaws. Look, I think I would've picked them to beat Pittsburgh this week, but avoiding the Steelers is a significant break, regardless of the injuries to Roethlisberger, Mendenhall (slightly overrated - not a real loss in production with Isaac Redman) and the defensive line. Steelers/Ravens/Packers or Saints (most likely) would be about as tough a road as you can take this season, and moving the Steelers out and putting the Broncos in makes it at least that much easier to get one step closer. Also this: Given the ups and downs we've seen at times from the Ravens this season - and the hard to explain regression from Joe Flacco (touchdowns and completion percentage down, interceptions up, Flacco ranked 18th in passer rating, right between Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer) - would it be a Level 5 stunner to see Houston go to Baltimore and win an ugly 17-13 kind of game? Gun to my head I'm picking Baltimore, but if T.J. Yates plays a clean game (the Texans would sign for his box score from Saturday: 11-of-20 for 159 yards, a TD and zero picks), Arian Foster is close to Arian Foster and that defense makes a couple of plays against Flacco you could easily see an upset. In 2004 the Patriots had to beat Peyton Manning (league MVP, 49 TDs) and Ben Roethlisberger (14-0 as a starter, Rookie of the Year) to get to the Super Bowl. Two first-ballot Hall of Famers. This year, it's possible the road to Indy will include Tim Tebow and T.J. Yates.

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