One man's Week 1 NFL selections (note: I picked Green Bay over New Orleans on Thursday, which is historic if only because it means I'm over .500 for the first time in the year-plus I've been making picks for the website.) ...

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KANSAS CITY (-6) over Buffalo

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a better season than any reasonable Bills fan could have asked for last year (3,000 yards, 23-15 TD/INT, 81.8 passer rating), but it's worth noting that his passer rating and completion percentage dropped each month. The Bills scored more than 20 points only once after Week 7 last season and somehow the always shrewd Ralph Wilson (born five weeks after the 1918 World Series ended) did nothing to improve the offense. Another team that would happily sign for 3-13 if it guaranteed Andrew Luck.

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Detroit (+1) over TAMPA BAY

Is there any more sound reasoning when picking a game than giving serious weight to how the teams looked against a common opponent in the preseason? Never misses, right? Impossible to find a flaw in the logic, isn't it? Just a peek into the thought process that led me to finish a mere 22 games under .500 in my picks last year.

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Atlanta (+2.5) over CHICAGO

The Bears aren't going to the playoffs. Why? Since the NFL playoffs expanded to the 12-team format in 1990, just three of 106 teams to open 0-3 have made the postseason. The Bears open with the Falcons, Saints and Packers and are going to lose all three games. But not all news is bad, Chicago fans: At least you've got Carlos Zambrano locked up for the next two years at a cool $38 million.

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ST. LOUIS (+5) over Philadelphia

Steven Jackson has rushed for 1,000 yards in each of the last six seasons, no other player in the league has a streak longer than four years (Adrian Peterson). I know, I know -- 1,000 yards doesn't mean anything in a 16-game season. But Jackson -- who played just 12 games in 2007 and 2008 -- has averaged 85.7 yards per game over the last six years, which translates to almost 1,200 yards over a 14-game season. Jackson is very quietly having a Curtis Martin career (Curtis Martin quietly had a Curtis Martin career, now that I think about it). Only 28 years old, if he can have another 3-4 years of 1,200-yard seasons he's going to make an interesting Hall of Fame candidate.

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Indianapolis (+9) over HOUSTON

This is it for the Texans -- if they can't win the AFC South this season it might be time to give up the clarinet. No Manning, no Garrard and the Titans in transition? Name me a team with legitimate playoff aspirations that has an easier path to a division title. 

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CLEVELAND (-6.5) over Cincinnati

Your NFL leader in rushing after Week 1? That would be Peyton Hillis, who will go for 138 yards against a Bengals defense that gave up nearly 4.5 yards per carry last season and did very little to improve its line in the offseason. 

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Pittsburgh (+1) over BALTIMORE

You know how Tom Brady owns the Steelers? That's Ben Roethlisberger against the Ravens. And until I see the Ravens actually beat Roethlisberger -- who has thrown 12 TD's against three INT's in this seven-game winning streak, which includes two playoff wins -- I'll keep picking the Steelers.

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Tennessee (+1) over JACKSONVILLE

Luke McCown is 30 years old, has played in the NFL for five seasons and has won exactly one more game as a starting quarterback than you, me and Scott Secules combined. There's giving up on a season and then there is getting rid of a guy with a career TD/INT ratio of 89-54 and giving Luke McCown the keys to the car.

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Carolina (+8) over ARIZONA

Kevin Kolb: 19 games with the Eagles (seven starts), 60.8 completion percentage, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 319 pass attempts, 73.2 passer rating. A.J. Feely: 12 games with the Eagles (seven starts), 58.6 completion percentage, 16 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 309 pass attempts, 78.6 passer rating. 

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Seattle (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

From 1982-2003 (the Montana, Young, Garcia years), the 49ers finished outside the top 10 in total yardage gained once. Since 2003 (the Alex Smith era), the 49ers have not finished better than 24th in total yardage.

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Giants (-2.5) over WASHINGTON

How many games this weekend feature two starting quarterbacks that you would be OK with taking if you were starting a franchise tomorrow? Thursday's game, obviously, and I'll give you Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford. Flacco and Roethlisberger, Sanchez and Romo, Bradford and Vick. That's kind of a lot of games, actually. Forget it -- I was trying to demonstrate that there seems to be more lousy starting quarterbacks this season (maybe a dozen guys you can trust, the rest are either rookies, veterans who have been disappointments or Hold The Fort for a year types) than in recent memory and picked a dopey way to prove my point. Stick with me, one of these days I'm going to figure out this writing thing.

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SAN DIEGO (-9) over Minnesota

The last three years Philip Rivers has thrown for 4,009, 4,254 and 4,710 yards. I think he continues that trend, breaks Dan Marino's record this season (5,084) and wins MVP, further cementing the idea that Norv Turner is one of the leading offensive minds of this football generation (and for once, I'll leave it with Norv on a note of praise, not a cheap shot for his almost incomprehensible in-game decisions or putrid postseason record).

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JETS (-5) over Dallas

Lock Of The Week (yup, I sucked overall on the picks last year -- I prefer to think of it as a Hall of Famer having an inexplicable down year in his prime, or a great solo artist releasing a stinker album in his 30's  -- but I killed it on Locks of The Week, finishing 12-4-1). Long night for Tony Romo, who will be heading into this opener with an unproven offensive line against one of the top two or three defenses in the NFL.

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Oakland (+3) over DENVER

The Broncos finished 31st in rushing yards allowed and dead 29th in yards per carry. Opponents rushed for 2,473 yards and 26 touchdowns in 531 carries against the Broncos -- that's always a fast way to 4-12. The Raiders were second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (155.9) and Darren McFadden had 487 yards in the two Oakland wins over Denver in 2010. Von Miller is going to be a terrific player for the Broncos, but that defense remains a significant weakness.

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New England (-7) over MIAMI

This isn't a statement game for the Patriots, or one we'll remember if this turns out to be a Super Bowl season. Nope, this is just going to be an elite team dominating a team with absolutely no identity. The next time the Dolphins are a really good team it will be with a different coaching staff, different people calling the shots in the front office and a different quarterback. Let's call it Patriots 38, Dolphins 17.

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