One man's Week 17 NFL picks …

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BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cincinnati 

The Ravens need a win and a Pittsburgh loss at Cleveland to land the two seed in the AFC. Have to figure the Steelers will find a way to win, but just the possibility of a bye week should be enough to keep the Ravens motivated to handle a Bengals team that has showed some unexpected life late in the year and beat the Ravens earlier in the season. 

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NEW ORLEANS (-9) over Tampa Bay

I get a kick out of Peter King, I really do. But to suggest that Raheem Morris should be in the Coach of the Year conversation will Bill Belichick is absurdity on steroids. Morris has done a nice job this year. If the Bucs  win in New Orleans they will have won 10 games -- a seven-game jump. No small feat, that. Impressive. But it kind of happens kind of a lot in the NFL. If the Chiefs and Rams both win on Sunday they'll have a seven-game improvement. The Bengals did it the year before. The year before that? The Dolphins improved by 10 games. Also there is this: The Bucs won't win on Sunday. They have no wins over a team with a winning record this season. How can you be Coach of the Year with zero quality wins? Tampa Bay has taken advantage of an amazingly easy schedule (four games vs. the NFC West and two vs. the Panthers). Good for them and good for Morris. He's done well. But what Belichick has managed to do -- win 13 or 14 games with a defense full of rookies and second-year guys while changing the direction of the offense mid-season -- is an all-timer. I can't think of a similar example. Voting Morris over Belichick would be like voting for a .310 hitter MVP over Ted Williams in his Triple Crown year because the .310 guy was supposed to hit .268. So what? Greatness deserves to be recognized, even if we already knew it before.

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Pittsburgh (-5.5) over CLEVELAND

One team is playing for a two seed and a week off. The other is playing for Eric Mangini's job. Not the toughest call.

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HOUSTON (+2) over Jacksonville

Over his last 10 games, Tom Brady has thrown 24 TD passes without an interception. Maybe you've heard something about that. Trent Edwards (starting QB for the Jags on Sunday) has played 36 games in his career. He's thrown 25 TD passes with 29 interceptions. I guess the debate is finally over. I was on the fence, but these last 10 games has finally led me to conclude that Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Trent Edwards. Join me next week when I tackle Steve Kampfer vs. Bobby Orr.

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KANSAS CITY (-4) over Oakland

Three weeks until Patriots vs. Chiefs in the AFC Title Game … Hey, whatever happened to all the "The Pats need Richard Seymour" calls I heard on 'EEI after the Ravens game last year? … I have to admit, three months ago Tom Coughlin was not the "TC" that I figured was going to get whacked after this season.

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NEW YORK JETS (PK) over Buffalo

Why? Because I went to the twitter page of Dr. Santonio Holmes and it appears he's fully focused:

"2NITE HIGH SOCIETY GROUP & CLOCKWISE ENT. IS SHUTTIN MUCK CITY DOWN! BILLY BECKS MIXTAPE RELEASE PARTY @CLUB"

Sorry, that was actually Chuck Bednarik's twitter page. But I'll still go with the Jets, unless Chan Gailey is named head coach of the Jets between now and kickoff Sunday.

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Minnesota (+3) over DETROIT

I don't know, isn't having to stand out there on Tuesday night and pretend to be happy for Joe Webb punishment enough for an ego-maniac like Favre? I That was a fake performance straight out of the Bledsoe in 2001 playbook.

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New York Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON

Since Week 6 Tom Brady has thrown zero INT's, or 31 less than the Manning brothers combined.

(It was pathetic to listen to these ESPN anchors breathlessly report that Eli Manning called a players-only meeting last week, as if it meant anything. Then they talk about it for three segments, debate it and then throw a video montage of Eli up there with some new rap song playing. I hate ESPN more and more every day. Yet I love ESPN2 with all my heart.)

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ATLANTA (-14.5) over Carolina

The Falcons beat the Panthers by 21 points three weeks ago. Not sure I've seen anything change, except that the Falcons will be home and have to win (probably) to secure home-field throughout the NFC playoffs. Tough ending for John Fox, who should be remembered around here as the opposing coach in maybe the most entertaining championship game in Boston sports history. 

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INDIANPOLIS (-9) over Tennessee

More likely scenario in 2011: Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels or Randy Moss returning to the Patriots? I'll go with Zeke Mowatt myself.

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GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago

Again, going with the team that has to win. 

(Aaron Rodgers is having another terrific season -- he'll have a passer rating of over 100.0 for the third season in his four years as a starter. How good is that? That's more times than Tom Brady has done it -- including this year. It's as many times as Peyton Manning. That's as many times as Brett Favre and Drew Brees -- combined. I've never a seen a quarterback play at the level of Brady over the last two months, but Rodgers against the Giants last week was pretty damn close. I still can't shake the idea that the Patriots are going to see the Packers again, and it's not going to be Matt Flynn under center.)

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SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Arizona

If someone had walked up to you in 1991 and said that there would be an eight-year stretch in the not so distant future where the Patriots would win seven division titles, three conference crowns and two Super Bowls and the 49ers would go zero, zero and zero during the same span I'm not sure you would known what language the person was speaking. But here we are. Makes you wonder if there is some team with no real history waiting to go on a dynastic run. Maybe the Falcons?

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San Diego (-3) over DENVER

Came up tails. No clue if the Chargers will show up to play in their first meaningless late-season game since 2005. No clue if Tim Tebow is for real. If you are actually gambling on this game it's time to find a mirror and take a long look. Betting on a WNBA pre-season game or a WWE death pool shows more dignity and self-control.

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Dallas (+7) over PHILADELPHIA

I'm confused as to why Tucker Carlson said what he did, but I'm also confused as to why President Obama called Jeffrey Lurie to congratulate  him for giving Vick a second chance. Both are dopey (I'll allow that Carlson was more so) but also strange in this sense: Vick was in Philly last year. It's not like this is his first year back in the NFL. Where was the rage from Carlson in 2009? Why didn't Obama call Lurie when they first signed Vick? And would any of this be taking place if Vick was leading the Omaha Nighthawks to the UFL playoffs? Lesson learned: Politicians and talking heads will almost always make you vomit.

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St. Louis (-2) over SEATTLE

I'm tempted to pick Seattle -- this division deserves a 7-9 winner -- but I'll take Sam Bradford/Steve Spagnuolo  over Charlie Whitehurst/Pete Carroll. 

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NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Miami

Brady plays just a half (and throws two TDs without an INT), but the young defense plays deep into the fourth quarter and picks off Chad Henne three time, including an TD return for Pat Chung (when did he become Pat, anyway? I missed that press release). A laugher -- think it'll be the last one of the season? Call it Patriots 34, Dolphins 14.

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