The Patriots have played two teams twice so far in 2010. That would the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills all the way back in Week 2 and Week 3 (ah, September, that innocent time when we all thought Tony and Eva were in it for the long run and held out hope that "Little Fockers" would merely be a disaster, rather than the single worst comedy ever released by a major studio). Anyone up for a round of "when to peak at the right time?"
Combined score of first game vs. Bills and Jets. Other Guys 58, Pats 52.
Second time around? Pats 79, Other Guys 6.
Combined turnovers by the Pats in the first game vs. Jets and Bills: Four.
Second time around? None.
Turnovers forced, first games: Two.
Turnovers forced, second games: 10 (the Bills had seven turnovers on Sunday, two less than the Patriots total for the season).
Combined passer rating of Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2 and Week 3: 216.7
Combined passer rating of Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 13 and Week 16: 64.9
Yards per carry average in the first set of games: 4.3
Yards per carry average in the second set of games: 4.6
And on and on (as the not-so-great Stephen Bishop once sang) it goes. You get the point. The Patriots looked like the 2009 Patriots in New York and needed vintage Tom Brady and a very good Randy Moss (two TDs -- think he'll ever have a two-TD game again?) to win a shootout against a Bills team that we already knew was locked into a long slow dance with 4-12.
The Jets game was a loss and the Bills game felt like a loss. The perception around the NFL (and even in Boston) after those two games was this about the 2010 Patriots: A good-to-very good but deeply flawed 2-1 team with very real questions on the defensive side of the ball, no established running back, a still-great quarterback but one with a recent history of blowing second-half leads (and what about that knee …) and a head coach who had become Nixon at the end, surrounded by yes men and yes men only.
Think the perception has changed much in three months?
The Patriots have played their last significant minute of the 2010 regular season. It's done. Sure, all the players and Belichick will say all the right things this week, but if Brian Hoyer isn't throwing to Taylor Price by the second quarter on Sunday vs. the Dolphins I'll be stunned.
So it's time to look at the playoffs (you read it here first: Pats vs. Chiefs in AFC Title game) and recognize that this is a Patriots team peaking at the absolute right time.
You can look at Patriots 34, Bills 3 and not put a lot of stock into it. The Bills stink, the Patriots are playing for home field, all that stuff. But the truth is closer to this: The Bills have been frisky at home in the last couple of months (combined losses of 16 points to the Jags, Bears and Steelers), entered the game on a two-game winning streak and were dying to get a win over a franchise they haven't beaten since Grady Little was managing the Red Sox. So they hadn't quit. And the Patriots had the flu running all over the locker room this past week.
Does this mean that the Patriots should have lost to the Bills on Sunday? Of course not. But it would have made Patriots 20, Bills 17 with nine minutes left understandable. But that didn't happen. This was a wipeout, an absolute obliteration. The Patriots did whatever they wanted to on offense (three touchdown passes for Brady, 217 yards rushing) and created six turnovers -- and did some serious hitting -- on defense (plus one on special teams).
A massacre that -- save for the Green Bay game (and that's not looking so bad now) -- has become, remarkably, the template for this team over the last seven weeks. A truly great team taking care of business and getting out of town -- well, almost getting out of town (the Pats are snowed in and will fly out of Rochester on Monday morning).
Yup, a great team. That's what they are. Hard to ignore the evidence anymore. They have the best quarterback in the league at the insane hysterical peak of his powers (his worst passer rating since Cleveland is 107.0, which would only be the 14th-best number for a season in history). Brady last threw an INT in Week 6. OK, he's had a couple of breaks during the record-breaking streak, but come on. No picks (and 25 TDs) in 10 weeks? Put it this way: The Manning Brothers have combined to throw 31 INTs since Brady tossed his last one. You can argue about this vs. 2007 all day and night, but there is no denying that Brady has never entered the playoffs playing on a level near this.
What always scared me about the 2007 team was exactly what killed the 2007 team. The offensive line played its worst game of the season when it mattered the most. But we knew it could happen, right? Saw signs against the Ravens and even in the late-season games against the Dolphins and Jets. And they were sure dominated in Glendale that night. But I don't see that happening with the 2010 group. They were solid without Logan Mankins but have developed into the best group in the league since he got his sea legs after a game or two back (not sure why no one ever mentions this -- I never hear that the Pats have the best O-Line in the league. Gee, Brady never gets sacked and those annual Pro Bowlers Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis average about four and a half yards a carry. How does that happen?)
If I'm a Pats fan I'm still a little worried about the inability to consistently get to the quarterback. It's true, they just don't get a lot of pressure. Probably that's not going to change. We've got enough of a sample size. But we've also got enough of a sample size to now know that this defense creates turnovers. It's happened enough to write off the idea that it's some kind of fluke. Jerod Mayo (who was all over the field Sunday), Patrick Chung, Vince Wilfork, Devin McCourty. These are big-time football players. If there is a "weak link" on the 2010 Patriots is it the defense? Maybe. But I'm still waiting to see this group fail in a key spot. Hasn't happened, and a group this young might still have its best games ahead of them this season.
An offense that never turns the ball over, led by the best player in football having an MVP season.
A defense that forces a bunch of turnovers and seems to be improving each week.
A coach who has rebuilt a defense and totally changed the philosophy of the offense during the same regular season. Must be some smart yes men kicking around.
13-2 and home games until Dallas.
A great team.
Not just perception, it's reality.
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