One man's Week 10 NFL picks (note: I took Atlanta (-1) over Baltimore on Thursday night) …

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Carolina

Panthers quarterbacks in 2010 have basically played at the level of the Texas State University group before Scott Bakula showed up: Six touchdowns, 14 interceptions. Watching the Panthers, I keep waiting for FOX to cut to a shot of Hector Elizondo shaking his head in disgust after a Matt Moore pick. Jimmy Clausen was 8-of-18 for 47 yards last Sunday vs. the Saints (good for a 28.5 passer rating) and he still gets the start vs. the Bucs this weekend. Better bet: Does the Bucs defense outscore the Panthers offense?

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BUFFALO (-2.5) over Detroit

If only because I don't want to read a bunch of "This is the best 0-14 team IN HISTORY" stories the entire week before the Pats-Bills game on December 26. 

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Houston (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Mediocre buffet. Both teams are 4-4, both have allowed 226 points (fifth-worst in the NFL), both have running backs on pace for at least 1,200 yards but have quarterbacks who have turned the ball over in crucial spots on several occasions this season. Both defenses stink (and ultimately will be  the reason why Jack Del Rio and Gary Kubiak are gone after this year) so I'll go with the team that I think has the better offense (Houston just has more playmakers -- Andre Johnson, of course, and Arian Foster leads the league in yards from scrimmage).

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Tennessee (-1) over MIAMI

Vince Young has an ankle. I've always wanted to describe an injury that way, just by saying the part of the body. Getting to do that would have to be a big part of the Jim Nantz Virtual Reality ride at CBS World. So it could be Kerry Collins vs. Chad Pennington. That matchup has a nice 2002 feel to it, not unlike the Juicy Coture Velour Tracksuit I have on right now.

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Minnesota (PK) over CHICAGO

Why? Because, in the words of some Vikings players lacking the twins to actually put his name on the quote, "As much as I hate Childress, I will keep playing." I think we've all learned one thing for sure during the Childress saga: Having a wacky nickname doesn't guarantee likeability. 

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New York Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND

Everyone loves the Browns in this game, which means you have to go the other way, right? I'm thinking Peyton Hillis will do very well to get half of the 184 yards he picked up vs. the Pats last week, and Colt McCoy will not make it through his first series -- forget the whole game -- without getting hit. Back to reality loss for the Browns, and I have to wonder if there will be a hangover from last Sunday (Never seen a team celebrate like that in November -- wonder if they'll raise the banner Sunday or wait until next year's opener. Also Eric Mangini joins Al Roker, Lindsay Lohan and Jennifer Connelly in the inaugural Looks Worse After Significant Weight Loss Hall of Fame class.)

Lock of the Week, by the way. (7-2 this season on LOTW, which is almost as impressive as Derek Jeter willing himself and two of his teammates to Gold Glove Awards earlier this week. He just makes the voters better, doesn't he?)

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INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati

Halfway through the season and the one player in the top three in the NFL in catches, receiving yards and TD grabs is Terrell Owens, who was a free agent until the end of July. I know Owens gets lumped in with Moss and Ochocinco and I get why, but this is a guy who never takes a play off. Did you see him go over the middle on Monday night and get crushed by Troy Polamalu? You think Moss goes near the ball in that spot? I think the Steelers are the best team (and defense) in football and Owens did whatever he wanted. As impressive a game from a wideout as I've seen this year. It even brought Chad Ochocinco to tears in the third quarter.

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Kansas City (-1) over DENVER

Broncos: 538 yards rushing

Peyton Hillis: 644 yards rushing

Brady Quinn (who the Broncos traded Hillis for): Really showing improvement when it comes to giving Kyle Orton a fist bump.

Josh McDaniels: 116 days away from being named offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots.

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Dallas (+15.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

No team comes into Jason Garrett's house and pushes him around. Except this game is on the road. And his quarterback is Jon Kitna. And his team is 31st in rushing yardage allowed. And his defense has allowed 121 points the last three weeks. But you know what? I think he's going to have a successful debut. And by "successful" I mean a backdoor TD with 1:26 left to cut the lead to 34-21 and cover the spread.

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St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

If the 49ers win this game and the Seahawks lose at Arizona (obviously possible) this how the NFC West standings will look on Monday morning:

St. Louis 4-5

Seattle: 4-5

Arizona: 4-5

San Francisco: 3-6

There's a pretty good chance (depending on how much you buy into Indy and Tennessee) that an 11-5 team misses the AFC playoffs. But I think there's a better chance that a 7-9 team makes (and hosts a game) in the NFC playoffs. 

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ARIZONA (-2.5) over Seattle

Only because it helps my 7-9 scenario. And I'm still coming to grips with the idea that a Pete Carroll-coached NFL team might be regressing as a season goes on. How is that possible? Well, I'm sure it's nothing a visit from Will Ferrell or a couple of practical jokes won't cure.

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Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON

Every time I'm ready to get next to the idea of the Eagles as the best team in the NFC they take a step back. They lost to the Redskins in Week 4 after two straight road wins and after beating Atlanta by two touchdowns in Week 6 they get bulldozed at home by the Titans. But I just don't see another team in the NFC that can match Vick, McCoy, Jackson, Maclin and that defense (ranked third in the NFL). 

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PITTSBURGH (-4.5) over New England

This isn't a "sky is falling" pick against the Pats at all. What happened in Cleveland will be absolutely no factor against the Steelers. I still think the Patriots are legit, but the Steelers are just a notch above. The Pats just won't be able to make enough plays on offense (still figuring out life post-Moss) and Roethlsiberger will. Call it 28-20, Steelers.

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Last Week: 7-5-1 (that would be three winning weeks in a row as I slowly complete my transformation into Stu Feiner)

Season: 54-59-2