INDIANAPOLIS – For a lot of fans and a lot of media members, the NFL scouting combine is an introduction of sorts. Players’ names are learned, and first impressions are made through media interviews and workout numbers. It’s easy to make up your mind on a guy -- they’re either fast or slow, strong or weak, mature or Cam Newton.
That’s not really the case for NFL teams though. General managers and scouts have been traveling throughout the season, finding the guys that they like as an organization. Sometimes they know a year or multiple years in advance -- the Patriots’ interest in Laurence Maroney, whom they drafted in the first round in 2006, came when they were scouting fellow Minnesota back Marion Barber III prior to the 2005 draft.
Some teams keep their fingers crossed that players on whom they’re already sold can let the combine scare the other teams off, making them more attainable. The most obvious recent example (is 10 years ago still considered recent?) is the Cardinals cashing in on Anquan Boldin when the star receiver fell to the latter half of the second round after running a 4.71 40-yard dash, but you can find good examples in each year.
Take the Colts, for example. They liked Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen last year, and prior to the combine Allen was perhaps the only tight end you could find in the first round of mock drafts. The book on him was that he was a plus receiving tight end who could break tackles after the catch and that the durable Allen, who didn’t miss a game in any of his three seasons at Clemson, could sneak his way into the first round.
Then he ran a 4.89 40-yard-dash at the combine, which people believed damaged his stock. He didn’t try to improve upon the number, either, electing not to run at his pro day. He fell to the third round, where the Colts -- who had already picked up tight end Coby Fleener at the top of the second round -- happily ended his slide.
The Colts also overlooked the combine performance of Mississippi State running back Vick Ballard, who entered the combine with questions about his speed and confirmed them in the most embarrassing way. Ballard’s 40-yard-dash made him an Internet sensation, as he stumbled in one of his attempts before falling down. He eventually ran a 4.65, and the Colts grabbed him in the fifth round.
Two key contributors later, then-rookie GM Ryan Grigson probably had quite the grin on his face. Allen tied for third on the team with three touchdowns and 45 receptions for 521 yards, while Ballard became the team’s starting running back, leading the team with 814 yards in a season in a season that was plagued by injuries for Donald Brown.
Were it not for the combine, perhaps both players would have been selected higher -- almost certainly in the case of Allen.
“I personally love when that happens,” Grigson said Thursday. “I've learned lessons, just from starting at the bottom and being a scout at the very lowest level, the entry level, and I've just watched draft boards get way out of whack. I just catalogued that and took mental notes of that. The Anquan Boldins fell down draft boards and things like that because of the timed speed, but at the beginning of the process, he was way the heck up there.
"You've got to make note of that, but you also have to temper it with you don't want to still take a guy too early just because you love him when the market it [dictating] that he could be taken later."
It isn’t just the numbers teams can overlook when it comes to the combine -- sometimes it’s the combine itself. In the last four years, the Patriots have spent two second-round picks on players who were not invited to Indianapolis (Sebastian Vollmer, ’09; Tavon Wilson, ’13). While the jury still is out on Wilson, who lost snaps over the course of the season when Devin McCourty was moved back to safety, Vollmer has been an important piece of the Patriots offensive line and one of the better right tackles in the league.
They’ve also ignored the combine the old-fashioned way. Brandon Spikes was an instinctive and productive linebacker in his time at Florida, but it was widely believed that he had no business being drafted in the second round after he was slow in shuttle and 3-cone drills at the combine and, after electing not to run the 40 in Indianapolis, ran a 5.00 40 at his Pro Day. The Pats took him in the second, and he’s become one of the best linebackers against the run in the league. His shortcomings in coverage (something that has a lot to do with speed) still prevent him from being an every-down player, but the Patriots didn’t let his speed affect their decision.
Don’t be confused by the message here -- everybody should take the combine and its results very seriously, and opinions on players should rightfully be changed quite often -- but the teams that aren’t afraid to ignore it can be the ones that can benefit big-time. Some cases work out better than others (Boldin), but there’s enough of a track record of teams getting their guys later than they should have thanks to iffy combine performances to suggest they’re on to something.
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