The Patriots will have to try to not look ahead as they enter their regular-season finale against the Dolphins, but that might be tough to do considering all six AFC playoff teams have clinched playoff spots, with exact seedings still to be determined.
It isn't yet known which team the Patriots will play first, or whether that game will be in the Wild Card round or the divisional round, but the teams being locked in at least makes it possible to evaluate how the Pats might fare against potential opponents. Here's a look, categorized by current standing:
1. TEXANS
Record: 12-3
Week 17 opponent: Colts
How the Patriots could face them in the Wild Card round: They could not.
Why the Pats match up well: Tom Brady absolutely carved up that secondary in the Patriots’ 42-14 drubbing of the Texans in Week 14. Furthermore, the Pats held Arian Foster to just 46 yards on 15 carries. That was no fluke, as the Pats are 12th in the NFL against the run and have only allowed one 100-yard performance to an opposing running back.
Additionally, the Texans have looked treacherous against the NFL’s better teams (New England, Green Bay), while failing to get in the endzone last week against the Vikings. Yes, they have lost only three games this season, but has any 12-win team ever looked as bad in losses as the Texans?
Why the Pats don't match up well: Nobody matches up well against J.J. Watt, even if the Patriots were able to keep him relatively quiet (four combined tackles – none of which were for a loss – a forced fumble that actually resulted in a New England touchdown and no passes defensed in one of only three sackless games for the relentless defensive lineman). Of course, it wasn’t as though the Patriots were too tough a challenge for Watt. They doubled him regularly, but it worked.
Then there’s the fact that Matt Schaub could throw on the Pats a whole lot. There are questions in New England’s secondary each year, and this season the Pats are 29th in the NFL with 275.5 passing yards per game. On the other hand, they held Schaub without a passing touchdown and limited him to 232 passing yards with one pick in Week 14.
2. BRONCOS
Record: 12-3
Week 17 opponent: Chiefs
How the Patriots could face them in the Wild Card round: They could not.
Why the Pats match up well: The Patriots are the last team to beat the Broncos, which they did in Week 5 with a 31-21 victory. New England had to fend off a comeback in the second half to outlast Denver, but the job that the Pats did on the ground (251 yards, 151 of which were from Stevan Ridley) was enough to get them past a 337-yard, three-touchdown performance from Peyton Manning.
Former first-round pick Knowshon Moreno has done better of late in place of the injured Willis McGahee, but don’t let two 100-yard performances in the last three weeks trick you into thinking he’s too much for a strong Patriots run defense to handle. Moreno was inactive when the teams met in the regular season – part of an eight-game stay in the doghouse that followed a Week 2 fumble.
Why the Pats don't match up well: There isn’t a tougher challenge out there in the AFC for the Patriots than Peyton Manning. He’s returned to form after missing last season due to neck surgery and should get serious MVP consideration.
Manning’s 34 touchdowns are third in the league behind Drew Brees (39) and Aaron Rodgers (35), and he sits two touchdowns ahead of Brady (32). He’s been good for almost an interception a game of late (throwing a pick in five of the Broncos’ last six games), a span in which he’s thrown for 300 yards just twice, but he’s provided stability to an offense that needed it when the decision was made to upgrade over Tim Tebow. If the secondary isn’t healthy (Aqib Talib, Alfonzo Dennard) or effective, Manning could have a field day, or he could just have one anyway.
Then there’s the well-rounded defense, which has star-power with Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller (third in the NFL with 17.5 sacks) and the ageless wonder, Champ Bailey.
Although the Pats ran all over them in Week 5, Denver has allowed an average of 91.0 rushing yards per game, good for third-best in the NFL. Furthermore, Tom Brady’s 223 passing yards against the Broncos remain a season-low for New England’s signal-caller. The Broncos are seventh in the league against the pass with 211.2 opponents passing yards per game.
The Pats should be able to beat anyone, but the Broncos present the biggest challenge for them among the AFC playoff teams. Thought the Patriots have proven they're capable of beating the Broncos, the road to the Super Bowl will undoubtedly be tougher it goes through Denver.
4. RAVENS
Record: 10-5
Week 17 opponent: Bengals
How the Patriots could face them in the Wild Card round: They could not.
Why the Pats match up well: The Baltimore defense has suffered a couple of big injuries since the two teams last met, as Ray Lewis (torn triceps) and cornerback Lardarius Webb (torn ACL) were both placed on injured reserve after Week 6. Lewis was activated on Wednesday, though he won't play this week and his playoff availability is unknown.
The Pats weren’t very effective on the ground against Baltimore in the Ravens’ 31-30 Week 3 win (37 yards for Stevan Ridley on 13 carries, 34 yards for Danny Woodhead on 15 carries), but overall the Ravens have struggled against the run this season, allowing 127.9 yards per game (27th in the league).
Then there’s the never-ending debate of whether Joe Flacco is a quarterback to be feared. He was against the Patriots in Week 3 – 28 of 39 for 382 yards with three touchdowns and a pick in what was perhaps his best game of the season -- but the Patriots would easily prefer a matchup with Flacco to a matchup with Manning.
Why the Pats don't match up well: Ray Rice is the only running back to put up a 100-yard rushing performance against New England, and if the Ravens elect to lighten his workload this week, he should be fresh for the playoffs. Patriots fans will remember his 83-yard run and 159-yard performance against the Pats in 2009.
5. COLTS
Record: 10-5 (locked into fifth seed as first Wild Card)
Week 17 opponent: Texans
How the Patriots could face them in the Wild Card round: Patriots lose and Ravens win, making the Ravens the third seed and the Patriots the fourth seed. With Indianapolis guaranteed the fifth seed, the Patriots would then host the Colts in the Wild Card round.
Why the Pats match up well: They’ve gone through enough to show that their mentally and emotionally tough, but on paper, the Colts are probably the least-threatening playoff team in the AFC. Andrew Luck has already had one nightmarish day at Gillette Stadium with three interceptions, two of which were returned by Patriots cornerbacks for touchdowns in Week 11.
The Pats hung 59 points on the Colts in that meeting, one of two Indianapolis losses over the last 10 games since Pagano took his leave. Though Luck has shined in his rookie season, the Colts’ rushing attack has been underwhelming (just one 100-yard performance from a running back this season – Vick Ballard’s 105-yard day against the Texans in Week 15), and the defense has been mostly dreadful (19th in the NFL against the pass despite a good season from Darius Butler, 30th against the run).
Why the Pats don't match up well: Emotion can be an X-factor, so don’t overlook it. Bruce Arians deserves coach of the year consideration after going 8-2 in Chuck Pagano’s absence, but with Pagano returning this week after missing the last 10 games due to leukemia treatment, the Colts are sure to enter the playoffs with a ton of momentum.
Though Luck would probably like to forget his lone meeting with the Pats, it’s worth noting that the game started out with him outdueling Brady in the first quarter. The first overall pick led the Colts to touchdown drives on their first two possessions, and though he threw a 59-yard pick-6 to Aqib Talib in the second quarter, the Colts scored on three of their five first drives. If Luck can hang around longer and match Brady stride-for-stride, especially if New England’s secondary is beat up (both players who returned picks for touchdowns against him in Talib and Dennard have had injury concerns of late), the rookie, with the help of a receiving group led by the resurgent Reggie Wayne, could do damage against the Pats.
6. BENGALS
Record: 9-6 (locked into sixth seed as second Wild Card)
Week 17 opponent: Ravens
How the Patriots could face them in the Wild Card round: Patriots remain the No. 3 seed. That would happen by the Pats, Texans and Broncos all winning in Week 17.
Why the Pats match up well: With the exception of wide receiver A.J. Green (fifth in the NFL with 1,324 yards), the Bengals lack star power on offense.
Quarterback Andy Dalton has done an admirable job of turning the franchise’s luck around, but over the past five games has thrown two more interception (five) than touchdowns (three). He has 16 picks to go with his 26 passing touchdowns, but he’s also scored four times on the ground. Still, Dalton ranks below the likes of Manning and Schaub as the AFC playoff quarterbacks go.
Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis has led a modest rushing attack for the Bengals, topping 1000 yards for the second time in his career, but he’s been limited against some of the better run defenses, which is what he’d be going against with the Pats. The Steelers have limited him twice this season, including a 14-yard performance on 15 carries last week, with the Redskins and Broncos among the other defenses to limit his yards. On the other hand, he put up 118 yards against a good Chargers run defense in Week 13.
Why the Pats don't match up well: Fear of the unknown. The Pats haven’t played the Bengals since the Carson Palmer era, when the two teams faced off in the 2010-season opener.
A lot has changed since then, as the Patriots have never faced Dalton or A.J. Green before, while Geno Atkins was a rookie and didn’t record a tackle when the two teams played in his NFL debut.
The Bengals might not be spectacular in too many areas, but they’re very well-rounded and a tough opponent. Atkins (13.0 sacks) leads a defense that ranks in the top 10 against both the pass and the run, and the Bengals are strong enough on both sides of the ball that they don’t need to rely on their quarterback to carry them. Though Dalton has thrown more picks than touchdowns over the last five games, the Bengals are 4-1 in that span.
RANKING THE OPPONENTS IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY
1. Broncos: Manning and a good defense is tough enough without considering the Pats might have to play them on the road.
2. Ravens: It's always a close game when these two teams play, and if Lewis returns it could be a big boost for Baltimore.
3. Texans: The Patriots made it look too easy last time around, and though neither team has a great secondary, the Patriots have the quarterback more capable of exploiting the other defense in the passing game.
4. Bengals: Well-rounded and capable of making any game close. Their last three losses were by seven points or less.
5. Colts: The easiest team to root for, but probably a year or two away from being Super Bowl contenders unless Luck has some magic up his sleeve.
DJ BEAN
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