If you’re overlooking this week’s matchup between the Patriots and Jaguars, you’re probably doing so for good reason. The Patriots are Super Bowl contenders after routing the Texans and going down to the wire with the 49ers, while the 2-12 Jaguars should be selecting first overall in April’s draft. 

Crazier things have happened though. The Pats have been surprised by vastly inferior teams in the past, most notably when they went into Cleveland and got routed by the Browns in 2010. 

Perhaps this could be a trap game for the Pats, and perhaps they’ll take the foot off the gas a little after playing two big games and likely being out of the running for a first-round bye. The Jaguars will need to have a lot up their sleeve to pull off such an upset, but here are five reasons as to why it could maybe (but ultimately won’t) happen:

Maurice Jones-Drew could be back

The UCLA product has missed the last eight games with a foot injury, but Sunday just may mark his return. Jacksonville coach Mike Mularkey has termed Jones-Drew’s status as “questionable” rather than "very questionable," so take that as a sign that the Jaguars might play their star back despite technically having nothing for which to play. 

In his career, the 27-year-old has only faced the Patriots twice, but he’s done some damage with his limited opportunities, rushing for 194 yards with a pair of touchdowns. 

Jaguars fans should certainly hope that Jones-Drew is ready to return, as Jacksonville has had a total of zero 100-yard performances on the ground in his absence. The team's other backs in Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele have both dealt with injuries, and the latter was placed on the IR earlier this month with a groin injury. Montell Owens has led Jacksonville’s rushing attack the last two weeks, combining for 138 yards over the last two games. 

Chad Henne has beaten Tom Brady and the Patriots before 

Not only has Henne beaten the Pats, but he’s thrown quite a bit on them. As a member of the Dolphins, the Michigan product led Miami to a 22-21 win on Dec. 6, 2009, throwing for 335 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. In a 38-24 Pats win on Sept. 12, 2011, Henne threw for 416 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. 

Those two games are the standout performances among Henne’s five games against the Patriots, but he has topped 300 passing yards three times against New England, and though he’s only accomplished the feat once in eight games (four starts; though his 354-yard day against the Texans last month was in relief of the injured Blaine Gabbert) this season, he could be in position to do it again. 

There’s more than one worrisome receiver

Randy Moss scored a first-quarter touchdown last week and Vernon Davis could have had a touchdown grab himself, but the 49ers generally do not present a daunting group of receivers outside of Michael Crabtree. Similarly, New England faced another team in the Texans the previous week that had one great receiver (Andre Johnson) leading an otherwise so-so group of pass-catchers. 

Sunday figures to be a different story, as Cecil Shorts has 925 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, while rookie Justin Blackmon has turned it on since Henne took over for Gabbert. Despite having needs throughout their roster, the Jaguars traded up to the fifth spot in the draft to nab Blackmon and address their woeful receiving corps, and he showed why he might be worth it by racking up 236 yards on seven catches (an outrageous 33.7 yards per reception) and a touchdown last month against the Texans. 

No, the Jaguars don’t have a great quarterback throwing to these talented receivers, but it’s better than what it could be had Gabbert stayed healthy. They’ll be in a tough position assessing their quarterback situation going forward, as the former first-round pick has played only two seasons but does not appear to be the answer. 

Jason Babin has made a wretched defense a little better

The Jaguars' defense has been terrible this season -- last in the league in run defense and 24th in the league in pass defense -- and they had allowed at least 30 points in four of their five games prior to claiming former Eagles pass-rusher Jason Babin. The addition of Babin hasn’t done much -- he has one sack through three games after having 18 last season with Philadelphia -- but at the very least, the team has allowed 30 points just once in the span, though all three games have been Jaguars losses. 

Babin forced a fumble on his lone sack with the Jaguars, but before Pats fans get too worried, it should be noted that the play came against the Jets and Mark Sanchez. The 32-year-old also had a forced fumble last week against the Dolphins. 

The Pats could have their eye on playoff position

Christopher Price had an interesting read on the playoff scenarios this week and noted that it might be wise for the Patriots to have a bit of fun down the stretch (a la 2005) as a means of lowering their playoff seed. 

As is, the Pats are in line for the third seed and can probably assume that the No. 2 Broncos -- who have home games against the Browns and Chiefs to finish the season -- will probably win out. A No. 3 seed might mean facing the Steelers and Broncos in their first two games, while a No. 4 seed could mean they get the Colts and Texans, who, Price notes, the Pats have beaten by a combined score of 101-38. 

So maybe the Pats will get some of their youngsters -- Ryan Mallett, Jake Bequette, etc. -- into one of these next two games. If that doesn’t translate to winning, it could at least translate to an easier postseason road. However, with draft position at stake, the Jaguars might be better off long-term with a loss as well.