It took just one dreadful year for the Colts to put themselves in position to have decades of elite quarterback play.
In going from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck, Indianapolis went from having a four-time MVP to a player believed by many to be the next truly great quarterback. Luck appears to be on that track thus far, as he has made the Colts a contender in his rookie year and, if the season were to end today, would likely edge the likes of Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
It was probably tough for Colts fans to imagine the team ever moving on from Manning, the first overall pick in 1998, but any such concerns were alleviated with Luck at the end of the tunnel.
Just like folks in Indianapolis probably never envisioned a day that Manning wouldn’t wear blue and white, Patriots fans would rather not consider that Tom Brady’s time in New England will one day come to an end. The question is this: Will the Patriots be able to transition to their next quarterback as easily as the Colts did?
The answer is no, a thousand times no, not even close. Though the Pats have a tall, intriguing signal-caller with a cannon for an arm who’s spent the last season and a half learning the offense in Ryan Mallett, it isn’t fair to expect anyone to be able to pull off taking over a team as well as Luck has with the Colts.
Nevertheless, with Brady 35 years old and in his 13th season, there’s no question that he’s on the back nine, if not skill-wise then certainly age-wise as it pertains to his playing days. The Patriots will almost certainly face a much greater challenge in replacing a Hall of Fame quarterback than the Colts did. Here are the Patriots’ options:
Ryan Mallett
The end of Brian Hoyer’s days in New England brought about a bit of confusion. It was surprising to see Brady’s primary backup of the previous three seasons just let go for nothing, and it’s been equally perplexing to see that he hasn’t caught on with any other teams since his August 31 release.
Either way, the move was a vote of confidence for Mallett, the 74th pick in the 2011 draft. It’s hard to tell where he is in his development since he isn’t playing, but he did earn practice player of the week honors for playing the role of Manning as the Patriots prepared to face the Broncos in Week 5.
Mallett remains a big unknown, but here’s what we do know about the 24-year-old: He has the size at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, was ranked the fourth-best prospect in the nation before committing to Michigan (he transferred to Arkansas), has a very strong arm and was a debatable fringe first-round pick in his draft year before character concerns caused his stock to plummet. He’ll never be a mobile quarterback, but he has the skill-set to be an effective pocket-passer.
The Patriots obviously have some history of success with developing starting quarterbacks under Brady. When Matt Cassel had to take over in 2008, he led the Pats to an 11-5 record and improved his stock so much that the Patriots were able to get the 34th overall pick in the 2009 draft from the Chiefs for Cassel and Mike Vrabel.
“Suck for _______”
Entering last season, there was no doubt that Luck would be the first overall pick. The only question was which team would “earn” the pick by having the worst record in the league, causing fans of struggling teams to plaster the internet with their wishes for their team to “Suck for Luck” and get the No. 1 overall pick.
One can’t predict the future, but as long as Brady is around, the chances are miniscule that the Patriots will finish with the worst record in the league unless the Pats experience a situation similar to that of last year’s Colts: The quarterback misses the season while age and ineffectiveness catches up to the supporting cast.
Of course, the Patriots wouldn’t need the first overall pick in order to select a high-profile quarterback, but if they feel the need to add another quarterback with the intention of acquiring a franchise player at the position, they’d be wise to do so in the first round. Sure, Brady himself was a sixth-rounder, but he was a lesser prospect who blew up. From the standpoint of getting a quarterback early in the draft, history says it's typically the first round or nothing.
Since Matt Schaub was drafted in the third round in 2004, the quarterbacks drafted in the second and third rounds are as follows: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O’Connell, Pat White, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Mallett, Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson and Nick Foles.
Of those 23 players, three are starters right now (four if you include Foles, who is starting this week in place of the concussed Michael Vick), while eight of them (Frye, Walter, Greene, Croyle, Beck, Brohm, O'Connell and White) are currently out of the league.
Catch a falling star
The Pats don't need to wait until Brady retires to draft a first-round quarterback. They could always do what the Packers did in 2005 when they took Aaron Rodgers, who some saw as first-overall pick material, with the 24th overall pick. The Packers then had Rodgers spend the majority of his first three seasons on the bench before deciding to move on from Brett Favre.
One could make the argument that this scenario is similar to what the Patriots have with Mallett, but Rodgers appeared a much safer bet to eventually be a starting quarterback in the NFL than the risk/reward type of prospect that Mallett is.
Bring in a veteran
This is the toughest of the three scenarios of the three to project. There’s no telling where the league’s current quarterbacks will be when Brady decides to call it a career.
There is a plethora of talented young signal-callers in the league, but top quarterbacks rarely go to free agency. Still, there is always the possibility that a team could have what the league perceives to be two starting-caliber quarterbacks (the Patriots after the 2008-09 season with Brady and Matt Cassel, the Falcons after the 2006-07 season with Vick and Schaub, etc.).
With Brady fifth in the league in passing touchdowns this season and still clearly one of the top signal-callers in the game, Pats fans obviously hope it will be a long time before his time in New England comes to an end. Like it or not, that day will eventually come, just like it did in Indianapolis. The Patriots can only hope they get through it as well as the Colts have.
DJ BEAN
BIO | ARCHIVE | BIG BAD BLOG
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Dave O'Brien talked to John Farrell before the end of the Twins series. The Sox skipper said that Big Papi's success is no surprise given his work ethic.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Joe Castiglione and Dave O'Brien talked to David Ortiz after the Red Sox beat the Twins 12-5. Big Papi said that team chemistry is great, that the new guys see the Sox way of doing things.
Dale and DJ roll on with their puck talk and chat some more about the goalie matchup in this series, as well as the lack of a quality power play for both of these teams. In fact, DJ says the Rangers are even worse on the PP than the B’s! The guys also get into the resurgence of Milan Lucic and his deceptive speed and grit. Dale and DJ talk about the similar styles of play for these teams and look forward to Game 2.
Dale and DJ get into the two coaches and their polar opposite styles and demeanor. Both teams play a similar style, but the coaches certainly convey their messages in a different way. Dale isn't buying the Tortorella hype and thinks he's a little overrated. DJ thinks he's a good coach, but isn't a fan of anti-media stance. The guys also talk about Jagr and how he has not lived up to the hype. They weren't expecting him to light it up or be the savior, but DJ says he wasn't prepared for just how slow the aging veteran is. Another big topic for B's fans this season is the play of Tyler Seguin and why he has yet to become the superstar everyone anticipates he will be. This leads to Claude Julien's style and if he does actually have something against the younger players. That Iginla trade shows its ugly head again as well.
WEEI.com's DJ Bean joins Dale in studio for Sports Sunday to discuss the Bruins playoff run. Game 2 is later today and the guys discuss the results of the first game of the series. They get into the construction of the lines for the B's and if they would make any changes. DJ has a few ideas for the lines today. The boys also discuss the two goalies - Tuukka vs Henrik Lundqvist and wonder why people automatically think the Rangers have the edge at goalie. Finally, they get into the legacy and the decisions of Claude Julien and Peter Chiarelli.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showBoomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
More from this showDale Arnold joined the program to preview the Bruins Rangers series with John, Gerry and Kirk. Dale thinks the Bruins have the advantage in the series over New York.
More from this show