If there’s one guy who really understands the differences and similarities between Wes Welker and Danny Amendola, it’s Dana Holgorsen. The West Virginia coach worked with both of them when he was a receivers coach -- and later, an offensive coordinator -- at Texas Tech. And on Thursday, he told the NFL Network that any comparisons between the two are “unfair.”
“Danny’s a little bit of a different guy. He’s a little bit more of a downfield guy,” Holgorsen told NFL AM. “But they’re similar in the nature that they understand the game and they’re tough and they like to play the game and they have the knack to get open and catch the ball. So, yeah, I think Danny will have a tremendous amount of success.
“[But] to say he’s going to have the same success as Wes is a little hard to predict.”
It’s important to remember that this shouldn’t be looked at as a straight-up swap of Welker for Amendola -- look for Aaron Hernandez to spend plenty of time in the slot in 2013. But fairly or unfairly, Welker and Amendola the two will be measured against each other, with each one a small part of the others’ legacy as a result of the personnel exchange that went down earlier in the week.
At the same time, to Holgorsen’s point, there are some statistical contrasts that have to be examined against the backdrop of the New England offense. With the understanding that these numbers need to be measured in context -- Welker and Amendola were asked to do some different things, and they were operating in different offensive schemes (not wildly different, but different nonetheless) with different quarterbacks -- they do give us a better understanding of the fundamental swap the Patriots are making.
Let’s look at how they compare in five key areas.
Dependability: One of the areas where Amendola compares favorably to Welker is in his dependability in the passing game -- while his sample size over the last four years is smaller than that of Welker, he’s displayed virtually the same catch rate as the former Patriots slot receiver. In all, over the last four seasons, Amendola has caught 196 passes on 293 targets for a catch rate of 67 percent. By way of comparison, over the last three years, Welker has 449 catches on 630 targets, a rate of 71 percent. While Amendola’s track record and the amount of targets suggest a high level of trust, it’s still going to have to be earned in the same manner that Welker did -- through hundreds of hours of working together with the quarterback. (It’s important to note that there wasn’t much transition time for Welker -- he was second on the team in targets in his first year on the Patriots with 145, second only to the 160 targets for Randy Moss.)
Ball security: Welker has indeed had some high-profile drops over the last few years, but from game-to-game over the last four seasons, Amendola has displayed a far greater ability to hang on to the ball consistently. According to Pro Football Focus, since the start of the 2009 season, Welker dropped one ball for every nine catches (including the postseason). In that same span, Amendola had one catch for every 18 receptions. (In addition, since 2009, Amendola has fumbled four times and lost the ball on three of those occasions. In that same stretch, Welker has fumbled three times and lost the ball once.)
Yards after catch: One area where their stats dramatically differ is yards after catch. Welker remains the gold standard, and has managed far greater numbers than Amendola over the last four seasons -- since 2009, Welker has 2,471 yards after the catch, while Amendola has 826. Part of that is because of Amendola’s struggles with health (as well as the way he was utilized), but even when you break it down by average, it still comes up short. Amendola has averaged 4.4 yards per catch over the course of his 42-game career, while Welker has averaged 5.8 yards per catch over his 140-game career.
Consistency: Supporters of Amendola will point to an eerily similar career arc between the two, even beyond their Texas Tech connection. At the age of 25, after kicking around the league for a couple of seasons and finally finding a spot in Miami, he caught 67 passes for 687 yards (from Joey Harrington, of all people) for a Dolphins’ team that finished 6-10. He then took that to the next level when he joined Tom Brady and the Patriots — at the age of 26, Welker caught 112 passes, jumpstarting one of the most productive six-year runs in NFL history.
For comparisons sake, Amendola had his breakout year with the Rams at the age of 25 when he caught 85 passes for 689 yards, most of them from Sam Bradford. That team ended the year 7-9. Where the comparison breaks down is that Amendola has yet to maintain that level of consistency -- he followed that up with two injury-plagued seasons where he played just 12 games. While he healed up down the stretch in 2012, there was still a lack of real consistency on his part -- more than one-third of his 63 catches in 2012 (26, to be specific) came in two games.
Durability: This is where Amendola comes up lacking. Forget the durability he showed at his position -- Welker was one of the most durable players in the league last season. Per PFF, he was third among all receivers in total offensive snaps -- his 1,089 snaps trailed only Calvin Johnson (1,181) and Reggie Wayne (1,099). Overall, the last four years, Welker has registered a total of 3,567 snaps. In that same span, Amendola has 1,697 snaps. (He had a career-high in 2010 with 677.) Again, part of that is due to the environment -- the Patriots offense is on the field for longer stretches, and will naturally register more snaps. But the nearly 2:1 ratio between Welker and Amendola when it comes to snaps played is astounding.
Ultimately, whether or not Amendola follows the same career trajectory as Welker did once he arrived in New England comes down to intangibles like fit and chemistry, as well as a willingness to work. He does have a background with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, a luxury that wasn’t afforded Welker before he arrived to join the Patriots. That history should give him a head start on getting acclimated -- a Cliff Notes edition of the New England offense to study over the spring and the start of the summer. What he does with the information once fall rolls around is up to him.
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