Because the receiver wasn’t hit with the franchise tag for the second consecutive season, it’s been hard to figure out which direction Wes Welker and the Patriots are headed when it comes to a new deal for the receiver. Not a day goes by where there isn’t a new report regarding the relationship between Welker and the Patriots: Are the two sides close on a deal? Is the relationship between Welker and the Patriots "mildly strained"? Does the rest of the league continue to share a sense of inevitability that he’ll return to Foxboro? There should (hopefully) start to get some clarity starting Tuesday afternoon at 4 when free agency kicks off.
While the Patriots and Welker enjoy the most symbiotic relationship in the NFL -- the two sides need each other to succeed more than any other high-level skill position player and team -- that’s not to say there isn’t a market out there for his skills. We took a look across the NFL and tried to match up Welker with a potential suitor. When it came to finding a possible landing spot for the receiver, we took into account the following: cap space, offensive scheme, competitiveness (he’s not going to Kansas City, for example, no matter how much they might offer him), overall franchise stability and something we called the revenge factor (if he really does want to stick it to the Patriots, there are some teams who would love to help him). In the end, we came up with seven possible fits for the veteran receiver:
Denver: The Broncos are starting to phase out an aging Brandon Stokely, and would welcome a chance to pair Welker with Peyton Manning, at least for another year or two. Denver would have to move some cash around to do it, but the chance to get a pass catcher like Welker for their offense and stick it to a conference rival in New England would certainly be an enticing prospect. If he did go to Denver, the Broncos and their system would probably give him the best shot at being able to replicate the recent run of production he had in the New England system.
Houston: The Texans would love to get their hands on someone like Welker for a variety of reasons. First, it would give them another veteran presence on a roster that needs some age and experience. Secondly, Welker would step into an offense that already possessed two excellent skill position players in running back Arian Foster and wide receiver Andre Johnson, which means he would be able to operate with the same level of coverage he’s enjoyed while with the Patriots. And three, the move would weaken a conference rival -- Houston would do anything to try and be able to get past New England in the AFC playoff picture. It’s not altogether clear how Matt Schaub might be able to utilize Welker (and the veteran slot receiver might have some qualms about playing regularly on a field where he tore up his knee at the end of the 2009 season), but the move would certainly be intriguing. The Texans don’t have a lot of room under the cap, but if I’m Texans GM Rick Smith, I’m moving money around right now and rubbing my hands together gleefully at the prospect of separating Welker from the Patriots by 4:01 p.m. on Tuesday.
Indianapolis: Does the wide receiver go the Adam Vinatieri route and bolt for Indy if he doesn’t get paid in New England? It worked for the kicker, and it wouldn’t be ridiculous to see Welker follow the same path. The Colts are very competitive; they have a terrific young quarterback in Andrew Luck, are very well positioned under the cap, and could certainly use a slot receiver in Welker, who would serve as a security blanket for the young quarterback. All Welker has to do is look at the way Luck treated Reggie Wayne in 2012 -- the veteran caught over 100 balls for the fourth time in his career.
Miami: The Dolphins have so much cash, they can’t give it all away this offseason if they tried. Welker knows his way around South Beach, and Miami was clearly a little peeved that slot receiver Davone Bess was sidelined at the end of the season. The chance to deliver a shot to a divisional rival and add a trusted security blanket for a young quarterback like Ryan Tannehill would certainly be enticing for the Dolphins, while the amount of cash Miami has available this offseason will certainly appeal to Welker’s camp. (Seriously -- if I was Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland, I would have walked into the combine and made it rain. I’d be using $20 bills to light cigars and filling swimming pools with gold coins like Scrooge McDuck.)
Dallas: Probably the least likely of the teams on this list to make a play for the slot receiver, we’re going to include them for their occasionally haphazard spending approach -- Jerry Jones’ proclivity for shiny new things knows no bounds. While they don’t have a ton of room under the cap, they could try and come up with a ridiculous offer to tempt Welker. Say what you will about the Cowboys, but they certainly have enough offensive options where he would be able to operate in single coverage on occasion, and he could probably continue to provide a reasonable facsimile of the production he’s managed over the last few years.
Minnesota: Maybe the least attractive of the bunch, but we’ll add them to the list because they just lost an elite slot receiver in Percy Harvin (who was dealt to the Seahawks on Monday) and would certainly be in the market to add to their receiving corps. (Now that Harvin is gone, try and come up with the name of one Minnesota receiver without Google.) The Vikings are moderately well positioned when it comes to cap space, and while he wouldn’t be catching 100 passes a year from the likes of Christian Ponder (or Joe Webb), Welker would form a special offensive tandem (The Rehabbed Knee Brigade?) with Adrian Peterson that would allow him some breathing room in that offense.
Baltimore: Not a real high-level contender like some of the other teams on this list, but like the Vikings, the Ravens just lost their slot receiver (Anquan Boldin was dealt to the Niners on Monday as part of some elaborate Super Bowl bet involving the Harbaugh Brothers -- Baltimore got $6 million off their cap and got a draft pick for a player they were going to cut anyway), but are now looking for an additional offensive option for the newly rich Joe Flacco. The Ravens would likely have to do some cap shuffling, but if they came up with the right number, Welker would go to a competitive team that has a shot to win a title, he’d be a primary target in a very good offense and he’d make a good piece of coin. And if he really did want to stick it to the Patriots, there might be no better possible place than Baltimore.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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....uhhhh.....a bunch of bombs over there....
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