When it comes to gauging how well a team is positioned for the NFL postseason, late-season momentum is overrated. Health is not.

The Ravens were able to shatter some myths this past NFL postseason, but it’s clear they were able to put to bed once and for all the idea that momentum matters going into the playoffs. As Sam Farmer notes here, Baltimore lost four of its last five regular-season games heading into the playoffs before winning four in a row in the postseason on the way to the title. That trumped the Broncos (who entered the playoffs on an 11-game winning streak), the Patriots (who won nine of their last 10 regular-season games) and the Niners (who were unbeaten in eight of their last 10 going into the playoffs), three of the hottest teams in the league over the second half of the season.

When it comes to the Patriots, since 2001, they lead the league when it comes to post-Thanksgiving football: in that stretch, they have an NFL-best record of 75-18 (including the playoffs) after Thanksgiving. In fact, the last three years, the Patriots have been a dominant second-half team. The 2010 team won its last eight games, but lost in the divisional round to the Jets. The 2011 team was equally as hot down the stretch, winning eight in a row, but they fell in the Super Bowl to the Giants. And the 2012 team won nine of its last 10 before winning in the divisional round and losing to the Ravens in the AFC title game.

But since 2005, late-season dominance is rarely an indicator of postseason success. The Ravens’ late-season woes already have been well-documented -- you would be hard-pressed to find a Super Bowl champion that struggled through November and December like Baltimore, who changed offensive coordinators in December in an attempt to jump-start the offense. Remarkably, the Ravens won one regular-season game in regulation after Thanksgiving, as it took longer than many teams when it came to finding their collective footing. As for the rest of the group, the Giants, who knocked off New England in Super Bowl XLVI, suffered a four-game losing streak in late November and into early December. The 2010 Packers lost three of their last four, while the 2009 Saints lost their final three games. Going back even further, the 2007 Giants were a .500 team down the stretch in the regular season, while the 2005 Steelers had a three-game December losing streak.

(In an odd statistical quirk, it seems to be a fairly recent trend, as prior to 2005, the last time a Super Bowl team had problems late in the regular season might have been the Broncos, who won back-to-back titles in 1997 and 1998. Those teams posted a combined mark of 3-4 in December those two years on the way to consecutive titles. After the Broncos, it started an impressive run of late-season dominance for eventual Super Bowl champs: The 1999 Rams won seven of their last eight going into the playoffs before steamrolling through the postseason, and the 2000 Ravens won their last seven regular-season games on their way to a title. The 2001, 2003 and 2004 Patriots went a combined 28-2 in their last 30 regular-season games on the way to three titles in four years. And the 2002 Buccaneers won six of eight down the stretch on the way to a Super Bowl championship.) 

So where’s the modern-day disconnect? Ravens coach John Harbaugh said after the Super Bowl that some of the late-season losses suffered by Baltimore managed to “callus” them up for the postseason, saying they were a mentally tougher team in the playoffs because of the lessons they learned from the losses in November and December.

“I think the adversity does help. It does callus you up,” Harbaugh said the day after his team beat the Niners to take home the Lombardi Trophy. “But through all that, we were improving. Even though we were losing, I felt like we were improving.”

One major factor is the fact that while the Ravens struggled mightily with health on the defensive side of the ball through the middle of the season, they managed to heal up at the right time. (While there were plenty of injuries for Baltimore to deal with, it’s worth mentioning that on defense, Bernard Pollard, Paul Kruger, Dannell Ellerbe, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata and Cary Williams all played at least 13 games.) And for all the talk of the healing powers of deer-antler spray, they did have a remarkable run of luck on the offensive side of the ball when it came to staying healthy -- almost all of Baltimore’s key players on offense stayed healthy for the bulk of the 2012 season and into the playoffs. Quarterback Joe Flacco, center Matt Birk, wide receiver Torrey Smith, tight end Dennis Pitta and running back Ray Rice played all 16 regular-season games, while wide receiver Anquan Boldin missed just one game.

The same is true for most of the recent Super Bowl champions. The 2011 Giants suffered a rash of injuries early in the year, but were healthy across the board when it came to the playoffs. In 2009, the Saints were relatively healthy down the stretch. And while the 2008 Steelers were dinged up down the stretch, they were able to keep their core healthy and intact for much of the year.

In 2010, the Packers were likely the exception to that rule, as they had 15 players end up on season-ending injured reserve. However, they managed to keep a handful of their key players healthy for the bulk of the season, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers (who started 15 games), wide receivers Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Donald Driver (all of whom appeared in at least 15 games), as well as linebackers A.J. Hawk and Clay Matthews; nose tackle B.J. Raji; and defensive backs Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams.

In contrast, while the Patriots have not had a crippling run of injury, it’s worth noting that they suffered some ill-timed injuries late in the season (and in the playoffs) that have ultimately impacted their chances at a title. In 2009, Wes Welker shredded his knee in the regular-season finale against the Texans which left him out of the postseason. In 2010, tight end Aaron Hernandez had a right hip injury that dogged him down the stretch and into the playoffs. In 2011, defensive end Andre Carter (who was leading the team in sacks) suffered a calf injury in December that shelved him for the rest of the season, and tight end Rob Gronkowski went down with a severe ankle injury in the AFC title game that left him ineffective in the Super Bowl. And this past season, multiple arm injuries suffered by Gronkowski late in the season and in the divisional playoff win over the Texans left him sidelined for the AFC title game.

No one is suggesting you don’t want to be playing good football going into the playoffs. And like anything, there’s a timing element to injuries and how they relate to the postseason -- we’re not likely having this discussion if Baltimore’s injury woes persisted into January. Ultimately, keeping key players healthy throughout late November and December can easily trump overall post-Thanksgiving momentum in the form of wins and losses when it comes to serving as a barometer of a team’s true chances in the playoffs.