If there was any doubt as to the overall value of Aaron Hernandez to the Patriots offense -- specifically, the passing game -- that should be put to rest for the remainder of the postseason.
Based on how the New England passing game has operated this season without Rob Gronkowski in the lineup, expect Hernandez’ workload to increase significantly going forward. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the pass-catcher who benefited the most when it came to Gronkowski going down was his fellow tight end Hernandez. Hernandez was targeted on 7 percent of the pass plays when Gronkowski was on the field this past season, but that number skyrocketed to 22.1 percent when Gronkowski wasn’t on the field.
The others who have seen an increase in targets when Gronkowski has been sidelined this year include running back Danny Woodhead, who saw his targets go from 5.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Fellow running back Shane Vereen saw a boost from 1.6 percent to 4.5 percent.
As for the wide receivers, Wes Welker (who already is a colossal part of the passing game), saw his targets increase as well, going from 27.3 percent to 29.1 percent (1.8 percent increase). To a lesser extent, the same is true for Brandon Lloyd -- he went from 20.1 to 21.8, a bump of 1.7 percent.
Ultimately, it looks like Hernandez fills the Gronkowski role -- at least when it comes to targets -- without much else changing. The top three targets with Gronkowski on the field are Welker, Gronkowski and Lloyd. With him off the field, it's Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd.
One of the interesting things about the breakdown is that some guys actually saw a drop in targets when Gronkowski was off the field. Nothing too dramatic, but certainly odd. Running back Stevan Ridley dipped from 2.7 percent to 1.7 percent, while wide receive Deion Branch went from 5.1 percent to 3.1 percent. And Julian Edelman, who himself was hobbled for a sizable portion of the season, saw his targets drop from 6.1 percent to 2.8 percent.
One thing the Patriots feel pretty good about is the fact that they’ve had some experience game planning without either tight end over the course of the season. This isn’t like the run up to Super Bowl XLVI, where they suddenly had to contend with the prospect of Gronkowski not playing for the first time all season. Unfortunately for them, they have some experience in this area when it comes to Gronkowski. This year he missed five games during the regular season after he broke his arm blocking on an extra point in a November win over the Colts. With Gronkowski sidelined, New England went 4-1 and averaged 34 points a game. In the Patriots' only loss in those five games (a 41-34 defeat to the Niners), they were still able to score 34 points and compile 520 total yards of offense.
As for Hernandez, he missed six games this season, going down in Week 2 with an ankle injury in a loss to the Cardinals and struggling with some other injury issues over the course of the 2012 regular season. Not counting the Arizona game (Hernandez was injured early in the first half), the Patriots went 5-1, and without him they averaged 42.3 points. Included in that time away for Hernandez was the first meeting this season against the Ravens in Baltimore -- a loss in which the Patriots scored 30 points.
(In all, the New England offense had to learn to survive without its two prized young tight ends for a sizable portion of the 2012 regular season. According to Pro Football Focus, Hernandez played just 573 offensive snaps in 2012 -- barely more than the 514 snaps he played as a rookie in 2010. As for Gronkowski, he played 743 offensive snaps in 2012, the lowest total in his three seasons in the league. The decreased snaps led to a dramatic change in targets from 2011 to 2012. The Patriots tight ends had a combined 169 catches on 237 targets in 2011. In 2012, that dipped to 116 catches on 182 targets.)
There are other areas where the Patriots offense will adjust without Gronkowski. Look for an increase workload for the backs not only in the passing game but on the ground as well. That certainly was the case in the divisional playoff win over the Texans for Ridley (82 yards on the ground) and Vereen (41 rushing yards). And tight end Michael Hoomanawanui has seen his role increase over the course of the regular season as a blocking tight end -- after working in a limited basis throughout the first 13 games of the season, barely getting double digits in snaps most weeks, he’s played 59 percent of the snaps over the final five games (four regular season, one postseason).
Ultimately, while Hernandez will likely be asked to take on most of Gronkowski’s workload when it comes to the passing game, everyone will be asked to step up and do more now that the big tight end will be sidelined for the rest of the postseason.
“It’s hard to replace a player like him because [Gronkowski is] a freak of nature. Everyone has to step up and everyone has to keep making plays so we can keep it rolling,” Hernandez said after the win over the Texans. “Everyone has to step up. It’s a big loss, and you can’t replace a player like him.”
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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