Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was asked Wednesday morning when he looks at the video of him celebrating the win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, if he sees himself or some kid.
“That was some kid back then,” he said with a quick laugh.
The emergence of Brady – who was 24 years old in 2001 -- commenced the era of perennial championship aspirations for the Patriots. But as the quarterback returns to the playoffs for the 10th time in 12 seasons, it’s fair to ask for how much longer he can be the on-field engine of the team’s title hopes. For how much longer will the Patriots’ championship window with him remain open?
When it comes to quarterbacks 35 and older who won the Super Bowl, if he was hoisting the trophy next month in New Orleans, Brady would be in rare company indeed: only four other quarterbacks have won Super Bowls after their 35th birthday: Johnny Unitas (37 when he led the Colts to a win in Super Bowl V), Roger Staubach (35 when the Cowboys won Super Bowl XII), Jim Plunkett (36 when the Raiders won Super Bowl XVIII) and John Elway (he was 37 and 38 when he led the Broncos to Super Bowl XXXII and XXXIII).
That said, the 35-year-old Brady is already making a compelling case that if there is a quarterback who can defy the typical limitations of age, it’s him. Put simply, there’s a case to be made that no signal-caller has ever performed in his 30s at the level at which Brady continues to deliver.
Since turning 30 prior to the 2007 season, Brady has the highest QB rating of all time (105.4) -- by a fairly considerable margin -- of any quarterback in his 30s. He has now had five of the best seasons of his career -- including 2007, 2010 and 2011, along with this year -- all after the age of 30, and is making a run at becoming the greatest thirtysomething quarterback the NFL has ever seen.
First, let’s look at Brady in his twenties vs. the quarterback in his thirties. Taking out the 2000 season because he only threw one pass for six yards as a 23-year-old rookie, here’s his average season in his six full years as a twentysomething quarterback:
•316 completions on 510 attempts (62 percent completion rate)
•3,593 yards.
•25 TDs and 13 interceptions.
•88.4 QB Rating
Here’s a look at his averages in the five-plus years he’s played as a thirtysomething quarterback, including the 2008 season where he was sidelined most of the year because of a knee injury.
•317 completions on 482 attempts (66 percent completion rate)
•3,874 yards.
•31 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
•105.4 QB Rating
Brady has not only forged a path as an elite quarterback, but has clearly made a case as best thirtysomething quarterback of all time.
As mentioned, he's the top rated passer of all time during that stretch of his career. As the accompanying graphic notes (provided in part by ESPN Stats & Info and WEEI.com), when stacking Brady up against the greatest 30 and over quarterbacks of all time, from an average standpoint, he trails only Drew Brees when it comes to average yards in a season for a quarterback age 30 or older (4,915 to 3,874) -- a fact that reflects in no small part the fact that he missed virtually an entire season in 2008 due to his blown-out ACL. He is at or near the top of the list in most major categories, including quarterback rating (his 105.4 mark puts him ahead of Brees and Young, who are tied for second at 101.4) and average TD-to-interception ratio (at 31:8, his mark bests Manning, who averages 27:11).
Consider the following: in 2007, at age 30, Brady has the best quarterback rating of any signal caller age 30 or older with a 117.2 mark, beating out the 112.8 Young set at the age of 33 with the Niners in 1994. (Joe Montana’s 1989 season with San Francisco ranked third at 112.4.) Brady is also has two other seasons in the Top 12: his 2010 campaign was good for fourth with a mark of 111, and his 2011 season of 105.6 put him 12th overall. And Brady is second only to Young when it comes to total seasons for a quarterback over 30 with a QB rating of 100-plus. (Young has six to Brady’s three -- for what it’s worth, Brady spent most of the 2012 season above 100.)
A large portion of Brady’s recent run of statistical success can be tied back into his receivers. While he had some sure hands at receiver and tight end through the first six seasons of his career, in 2007 (at the age of 30), he was suddenly gifted with a rejuvenated Randy Moss, as well as Wes Welker. While Moss departed in a trade shortly after the start of the 2010 season, Welker has managed to put up six seasons of nearly peerless football as a slot receiver. In addition, there’s also tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, with the former shattering several positional records last season and the latter serving as a Swiss Army Knife of an offensive option who can be deployed in a number of ways, particularly in the passing game.
Then, there’s also the overall level of offensive responsibility, which has grown over the years. As a younger quarterback, he didn’t have as nearly as much on his plate as he does now. These days, he is not just the centerpiece of the New England offense, but in a quarterback-driven league, he remains the most important part of a Patriots’ franchise that will be gunning for another Super Bowl crown when they open their postseason schedule Sunday against the Texans -- a game where Brady will make his 23rd career playoff start.
So how long does that championship window remain open for Brady and the Patriots? It’s worth noting that Brady’s comment that he was interested in playing until he was 40 was met initially with some skepticism, but for a quarterback who has improved so dramatically from his twenties to his thirties, who’s to say that he couldn’t make a similar leap over the next five-plus years, provided he stays healthy?
At the end of his current deal, Brady would be 37 years old, and while time catches up with every quarterback, at least considering his history, it’s safe to say that Brady’s window will stay open a little longer than most. Consider the final year of the quarterbacks on our corresponding chart: Moon was 44 in his last season, while Favre was 41. Montana, Marino, Warner and Young were 38 years old in their final seasons, while Kelly was 36, McNabb was 35 and Bledsoe was 34. Providing he stays healthy, it appears Brady willl be closer to the front of that line than the back of that pack.
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