If history is any guide, the fact that the Patriots hold an advantage when it comes to playoff experience as well as the fact that they have an older roster means they’ll beat the Texans Sunday in their playoff clash at Gillette Stadium.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, while younger teams have had a slight edge when it comes to the playoffs over the last few years, more often than not the older teams with more postseason experience end up winning out.
The Patriots have the edge in overall age on the Texans (just barely -- 27.5 to 27), and they also have the advantage when it comes to overall playoff experience. That should be good news for New England, because since the start of the 1993 postseason, the teams with the older average roster (players who played in the game only) have gone 130-83, winning 61 percent of the time. That includes wins in three of the four wild card games last weekend -- the only time a younger team beat an older team was when the Seahawks, who have an average age of 26.8, knocked off the Redskins, who average 27.7 years old.
(For what it’s worth, prior to the start of the 2012 playoff schedule, ESPN notes that there has been a small trend in recent years of younger teams winning, particularly since 2006. From that postseason through last year, younger teams won 53 percent of the time, including posting a 6-5 mark in 2011 and an amazing 9-2 record in 2008. But while younger teams have been more competitive in that stretch, older teams still hold the overall edge.)
When it comes to playoff experience, Houston has a combined 130 postseason games played and 73 starts, while New England has 211 postseason games played and 124 combined starts. While those splits aren’t as definitive, the more experienced team still holds an edge -- since 2000, teams with more playoff games played by players hold a 69-67 advantage. (That doesn't take into account the difference in head coaches. This will be Bill Belichick's 25th career playoff game as a head coach, while Houston's Gary Kubiak will be coaching his fourth career postseason game.)
If you’re breaking both teams down by postseason experience, when it comes to Houston, safety Danieal Manning leads the Texans with eight postseason games played, including a trip to Super Bowl XLI with the Bears. Defensive end Antonio Smith has been involved in seven playoff contests, the majority of which came when he was part of a Cardinals team that went to Super Bowl XLIII. Two players are third with six playoff games each -- defensive back Quintin Demps (with the Eagles and Texans) and linebacker Bradie James, who was a fairly regular postseason visitor over the last 10 years with the Cowboys.
A total of 12 players made their postseason debut last Saturday against the Bengals, a group that, oddly enough, includes quarterback Matt Schaub. (Schaub was injured when the Texans made their postseason run last year.)
On the other side of the ball, New England features fewer players with postseason experience (35) but far more total games (211). Leading the way is quarterback Tom Brady, who will be playing in his 23rd career postseason game on Sunday (He has a career playoff record of 16-6.) Five other players have hit double digits in total postseason games played: defensive lineman Vince Wilfork (16), wide receiver Deion Branch (15), offensive lineman Logan Mankins (13), kicker Stephen Gostkowski (10) and linebacker/special teamer Tracy White (10).
As for New England’s playoff newbies, 18 players will be making their postseason debuts Sunday against the Texans, including rookie defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower and cornerback Alfonzo Dennard. But there also will be a healthy number of veterans in the mix as well, including cornerback Aqib Talib, wide receiver Brandon Lloyd and defensive end Trevor Scott.
When it comes to preparing a rookie for the intensity level of the postseason, that has to take place across a variety of formats as early in the week as possible.
“I think this is the time for the veteran guys to show them that in practice and in the meeting rooms. We don’t want to wait until game day -- that’s sort of too late,” Branch said of getting a playoff rookie ready for the change in urgency and speed.
“I think it’s all about getting focused, being in tune right now in the meeting rooms and our walkthroughs and then carrying it over to the practice field. Once the guys see the sense of urgency that the veteran guys are putting out on the football field, the guys that haven’t been a part will just fall right in.”
Wilfork, who made his first postseason trip as a rookie in 2004, said Tuesday that when it comes to playoff experience, “It only matters if you make it matter.”
“You have to understand what’s at stake. I think that’s the biggest thing -- for this team to understand where we’re at [and] what it’s going to take to win,” he said. “That’s when you talk about how many times you've been in the postseason and stuff like that. But if you can’t put it out and you can’t execute, I don’t care how many times you've been at this level or how many games you've played in the postseason, it won’t matter. It will not matter.”
“I think it helps a little bit, but every year is a different year,” said special teams captain Matthew Slater, who will be playing in his sixth career postseason game Sunday against Houston. “What happens in the regular season usually has no bearing on what happens in the postseason. I think it helps for guys that have played in the big games to know what to understand and expect as far as the speed of the game, the intensity of the game -- it’s nothing like a regular-season game.
“Like I said, every year is different, every team is different, every situation is different, so you can’t really rely on past experiences to kind of expect it to be the same when you get to the game this year.”
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