In 2009, Wes Welker was denied one potential career-defining playoff run when he suffered a devastating injury in the regular-season finale against the Texans. Now, with the Patriots set to face Houston in Sunday’s divisional playoffs, the slot receiver has another opportunity to add to his legacy.
With the understanding that he’s probably still another year or two removed from serious consideration as a Hall of Famer, Welker’s regular-season run has already pushed him into the discussion as one of the best of the last decade. But with a title, the 31-year-old could further distinguish himself from a crowded field of legendary receivers who are still without a ring, and open up a serious national debate on his Hall of Fame candidacy.
When it comes to receivers, Hall of Fame voters are fickle. What works for one pass catcher doesn’t necessarily work for another. You can have great numbers, but still be on the outside looking in. As Mike Tanier reminds us here, when considering receivers, signature postseason moments are treasured almost as much as straight up numbers. That could explain the presence of receivers like John Stallworth and Fred Biletnikoff, who may not have had the same career numbers as receivers like Cris Carter, Andre Reed or Tim Brown, but are recalled fondly for their performances in the postseason.
That’s where Welker comes in. The receiver will be going to the playoffs for the fourth time in his career (he was there previously in 2007, 2010 and 2011), and in seven postseason games, has 53 catches for 438 yards and three touchdowns, including 27 catches for 213 yards in the 2007 postseason. Very good numbers. However, the one takeaway -- fairly or unfairly -- for many nationally when it comes to Welker in the playoffs is this ghastly image from last February. There’s no denying the fact that he’s been one of the most dominant receivers in the league over the last five seasons, but considering history and the tendencies of the voters, a signature postseason moment (as well as a chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy) would provide Welker with the sort of definitive final line of his resume that could ensure he makes the Hall.
By taking the measure of his regular season numbers, it certainly appears that Welker has at least entered the discussion. If you use the baseball argument that a possible Hall of Fame candidate needs to be the dominant individual at their position for a five-year stretch, it’s hard to argue against Welker. This season, he became the first receiver in NFL history with at least five seasons of 100 or more receptions. (In hindsight, it’s still a little odd to look at his career numbers and see an 86-catch season in there back in 2010.) And against the Jaguars on Dec. 23, Welker passed Jerry Rice with his 18th career game with 10 or more catches. For the season, he ended up with 118 receptions for 1,354 yards and six touchdowns -- his 118 receptions marked the third-highest total of his career. (He caught 123 balls in 2009 and 122 in 2011.)
Now, at the end of his sixth full season in New England, Welker has 768 career regular-season receptions, good for 29th on the all time. (By way of comparison, he’s eighth on the list of active players. Tony Gonzalez is tops in that department with 1,242, and the Atlanta tight end is second all-time behind Jerry Rice, with 1,549.) Welker’s number of career receptions is already higher than several other receivers who are in the Hall of Fame, including James Lofton (764 catches), Charlie Joiner and Michael Irvin (both at 750), Raymond Berry (631), Fred Biletnikoff (589) and John Stallworth (537). On the surface, that would certainly be enough to merit consideration.
When it comes to yards, it’s a little dicier. He’s 67th on the career list with 8,580 yards. (That’s good for 12th among active pass catchers.) Even though he’s further down the list, he’s still in a neighborhood that includes Hall of Famers like Stallworth (63rd overall with 8,723), Paul Warfield (68th overall with 8,565), Biletnikoff (tied for 51st with 8.974), Berry (45th overall with 9.275 yards) and Charley Taylor (48th overall with 9,110).
Welker will likely get consideration because he got a relatively late start, particularly when compared to several others. He was 25 when he posted his first season of 30-plus catches (67 with the Dolphins in 2006), and was 26 when his career really got started -- that was his first year in New England, when he caught 112 passes. The one area critics might point to as a shortcoming when it comes to debating his merits as a Hall of Famer is touchdowns. His 30 career receiving touchdowns are impressive when measuring him against most of the league, but he’s tied at 199th all time with a handful of pass catchers, including teammate Rob Gronkowski. Based on the way he’s been used in the New England system, 50 seems like a legitimate ceiling for Welker in that department, but even that wouldn’t crack the Top 100 all time.
Beyond stats, Welker is a unique case. He was never a lead receiver, which will likely be a hot button issue for voters. (As a result of working with Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski, critics will say that he was never the primary offensive option -- defensive coordinators were always more concerned with stopping someone else. Meanwhile, his supporters will say that that only bolsters his case.) He’ll likely be carrying the flag for all those underappreciated slot receivers as well.
He likely needs (at least) another 100-plus receptions and 1,000 yards before he merits serious consideration. If he stays healthy, that should be a layup. That would give him close to 900 catches and 10,000 yards, which should put him in the Top 20 all time in catches and roughly in the Top 40 in receiving yards -- an elite neighborhood that would really kick start the discussion on a national level.
If he did end up in the vicinity of 900 catches and 10,000 career receiving yards, he’d probably be part of a conversation right now that includes the likes of Carter, Reed and Brown, three receivers who put up amazing numbers when compared to the rest of the field, but are still on the outside looking in. No matter what you think of his abilities as an analyst, it would certainly help Welker’s case if Carter -- who finished his career with 1,101 catches, 13,899 receiving yards and 130 touchdowns -- made it in. Ditto for Reed, who had 951 catches and 13,198 receiving yards and 87 touchdowns, and Brown, who concluded his career with 1,094 catches, 14,934 yards and 100 touchdowns.
One thing that can separate Welker from the rest of that pack -- providing he tacks on the requisite yardage over the next few seasons, regardless if its in New England or somewhere else -- is a championship. Starting on Sunday against the Texans, he’ll get another opportunity to fill in that blank spot on an already impressive resume that could eventually land him in Canton.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Joe Castiglione talked with John Lackey after he picked up the W against the Twins. Lackey threw seven innings, and retired the 1st twelve batters of the game.
Dave O'Brien talked to John Farrell before the end of the Twins series. The Sox skipper said that Big Papi's success is no surprise given his work ethic.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Dale and DJ roll on with their puck talk and chat some more about the goalie matchup in this series, as well as the lack of a quality power play for both of these teams. In fact, DJ says the Rangers are even worse on the PP than the B’s! The guys also get into the resurgence of Milan Lucic and his deceptive speed and grit. Dale and DJ talk about the similar styles of play for these teams and look forward to Game 2.
Dale and DJ get into the two coaches and their polar opposite styles and demeanor. Both teams play a similar style, but the coaches certainly convey their messages in a different way. Dale isn't buying the Tortorella hype and thinks he's a little overrated. DJ thinks he's a good coach, but isn't a fan of anti-media stance. The guys also talk about Jagr and how he has not lived up to the hype. They weren't expecting him to light it up or be the savior, but DJ says he wasn't prepared for just how slow the aging veteran is. Another big topic for B's fans this season is the play of Tyler Seguin and why he has yet to become the superstar everyone anticipates he will be. This leads to Claude Julien's style and if he does actually have something against the younger players. That Iginla trade shows its ugly head again as well.
WEEI.com's DJ Bean joins Dale in studio for Sports Sunday to discuss the Bruins playoff run. Game 2 is later today and the guys discuss the results of the first game of the series. They get into the construction of the lines for the B's and if they would make any changes. DJ has a few ideas for the lines today. The boys also discuss the two goalies - Tuukka vs Henrik Lundqvist and wonder why people automatically think the Rangers have the edge at goalie. Finally, they get into the legacy and the decisions of Claude Julien and Peter Chiarelli.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Linda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this showBuster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showDale Arnold joined the program to preview the Bruins Rangers series with John, Gerry and Kirk. Dale thinks the Bruins have the advantage in the series over New York.
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