In 2009, Wes Welker was denied one potential career-defining playoff run when he suffered a devastating injury in the regular-season finale against the Texans. Now, with the Patriots set to face Houston in Sunday’s divisional playoffs, the slot receiver has another opportunity to add to his legacy.
With the understanding that he’s probably still another year or two removed from serious consideration as a Hall of Famer, Welker’s regular-season run has already pushed him into the discussion as one of the best of the last decade. But with a title, the 31-year-old could further distinguish himself from a crowded field of legendary receivers who are still without a ring, and open up a serious national debate on his Hall of Fame candidacy.
When it comes to receivers, Hall of Fame voters are fickle. What works for one pass catcher doesn’t necessarily work for another. You can have great numbers, but still be on the outside looking in. As Mike Tanier reminds us here, when considering receivers, signature postseason moments are treasured almost as much as straight up numbers. That could explain the presence of receivers like John Stallworth and Fred Biletnikoff, who may not have had the same career numbers as receivers like Cris Carter, Andre Reed or Tim Brown, but are recalled fondly for their performances in the postseason.
That’s where Welker comes in. The receiver will be going to the playoffs for the fourth time in his career (he was there previously in 2007, 2010 and 2011), and in seven postseason games, has 53 catches for 438 yards and three touchdowns, including 27 catches for 213 yards in the 2007 postseason. Very good numbers. However, the one takeaway -- fairly or unfairly -- for many nationally when it comes to Welker in the playoffs is this ghastly image from last February. There’s no denying the fact that he’s been one of the most dominant receivers in the league over the last five seasons, but considering history and the tendencies of the voters, a signature postseason moment (as well as a chance to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy) would provide Welker with the sort of definitive final line of his resume that could ensure he makes the Hall.
By taking the measure of his regular season numbers, it certainly appears that Welker has at least entered the discussion. If you use the baseball argument that a possible Hall of Fame candidate needs to be the dominant individual at their position for a five-year stretch, it’s hard to argue against Welker. This season, he became the first receiver in NFL history with at least five seasons of 100 or more receptions. (In hindsight, it’s still a little odd to look at his career numbers and see an 86-catch season in there back in 2010.) And against the Jaguars on Dec. 23, Welker passed Jerry Rice with his 18th career game with 10 or more catches. For the season, he ended up with 118 receptions for 1,354 yards and six touchdowns -- his 118 receptions marked the third-highest total of his career. (He caught 123 balls in 2009 and 122 in 2011.)
Now, at the end of his sixth full season in New England, Welker has 768 career regular-season receptions, good for 29th on the all time. (By way of comparison, he’s eighth on the list of active players. Tony Gonzalez is tops in that department with 1,242, and the Atlanta tight end is second all-time behind Jerry Rice, with 1,549.) Welker’s number of career receptions is already higher than several other receivers who are in the Hall of Fame, including James Lofton (764 catches), Charlie Joiner and Michael Irvin (both at 750), Raymond Berry (631), Fred Biletnikoff (589) and John Stallworth (537). On the surface, that would certainly be enough to merit consideration.
When it comes to yards, it’s a little dicier. He’s 67th on the career list with 8,580 yards. (That’s good for 12th among active pass catchers.) Even though he’s further down the list, he’s still in a neighborhood that includes Hall of Famers like Stallworth (63rd overall with 8,723), Paul Warfield (68th overall with 8,565), Biletnikoff (tied for 51st with 8.974), Berry (45th overall with 9.275 yards) and Charley Taylor (48th overall with 9,110).
Welker will likely get consideration because he got a relatively late start, particularly when compared to several others. He was 25 when he posted his first season of 30-plus catches (67 with the Dolphins in 2006), and was 26 when his career really got started -- that was his first year in New England, when he caught 112 passes. The one area critics might point to as a shortcoming when it comes to debating his merits as a Hall of Famer is touchdowns. His 30 career receiving touchdowns are impressive when measuring him against most of the league, but he’s tied at 199th all time with a handful of pass catchers, including teammate Rob Gronkowski. Based on the way he’s been used in the New England system, 50 seems like a legitimate ceiling for Welker in that department, but even that wouldn’t crack the Top 100 all time.
Beyond stats, Welker is a unique case. He was never a lead receiver, which will likely be a hot button issue for voters. (As a result of working with Randy Moss and Rob Gronkowski, critics will say that he was never the primary offensive option -- defensive coordinators were always more concerned with stopping someone else. Meanwhile, his supporters will say that that only bolsters his case.) He’ll likely be carrying the flag for all those underappreciated slot receivers as well.
He likely needs (at least) another 100-plus receptions and 1,000 yards before he merits serious consideration. If he stays healthy, that should be a layup. That would give him close to 900 catches and 10,000 yards, which should put him in the Top 20 all time in catches and roughly in the Top 40 in receiving yards -- an elite neighborhood that would really kick start the discussion on a national level.
If he did end up in the vicinity of 900 catches and 10,000 career receiving yards, he’d probably be part of a conversation right now that includes the likes of Carter, Reed and Brown, three receivers who put up amazing numbers when compared to the rest of the field, but are still on the outside looking in. No matter what you think of his abilities as an analyst, it would certainly help Welker’s case if Carter -- who finished his career with 1,101 catches, 13,899 receiving yards and 130 touchdowns -- made it in. Ditto for Reed, who had 951 catches and 13,198 receiving yards and 87 touchdowns, and Brown, who concluded his career with 1,094 catches, 14,934 yards and 100 touchdowns.
One thing that can separate Welker from the rest of that pack -- providing he tacks on the requisite yardage over the next few seasons, regardless if its in New England or somewhere else -- is a championship. Starting on Sunday against the Texans, he’ll get another opportunity to fill in that blank spot on an already impressive resume that could eventually land him in Canton.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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