Tell Ryan Mallett to loosen up his arm, and get Jake Bequette, James Develin and Mike Rivera ready for some serious snaps. If you’re the Patriots, it’s time to do whatever it takes to create an easier postseason path between now and New Orleans -- and that might include losing.
If you have to “play the youngsters and rest the starters” sometime between now and the end of the season ... and you happen to coincidentally move from the third seed to the fourth seed in the AFC playoff picture (setting up a scenario where you can face Indy and Houston in your first two postseason games, who you’ve beaten by a combined score of 101-38) well, then that’s just a happy coincidence.
The thought of New England dropping a game down the stretch to improve its postseason situation isn’t new. At the end of the 2005 season, New England did everything possible to give away the regular-season finale to the Dolphins to help create a more favorable playoff matchup.
That was the contest where Doug Flutie delivered the drop kick, Tom Brady didn’t play beyond the first quarter (his 37 yards that afternoon still represents a career-low) and a fringe receiving prospect named Bam Childress lined up at corner. Patrick Pass led the team in rushing (26 yards), while Andre Davis had a team-high 47 yards receiving.
And with no time left as New England went for a two-point conversion that would have tied the game, backup quarterback Matt Cassel threw it into the third row of the stands so the Patriots wouldn’t tie the game and run the risk of winning in overtime. While none of the players said as much on the record, there was an acknowledgement off the record by some players in the locker room that New England was well-aware of its situation, and did whatever it had to do to create a positive postseason scenario.
Truth of the matter is, it worked: The defeat allowed the Patriots to ease into the postseason with a wild-card game at home against the Jags, a far more palatable idea than the alternative -- facing the Steelers. (Also a wild-card team, Pittsburgh would go on to become the second team ever to go on the road for all three playoff games and win, eventually beating the Seahawks in Super Bowl XL.) As for the Patriots, they crushed Jacksonville 28-3 at home before heading out to Denver, and were in the game until Champ Bailey jumped the route on a pass intended for Troy Brown and took it to the house. But New England survived in the postseason longer than it would have with a matchup against Pittsburgh in the first round.
As things stand right now, the Patriots are at No. 3, and they would face either the Bengals or Steelers in the wild card round, and then, the Broncos the following week in Denver in a divisional playoff game. If they dropped to No. 4 -- mostly likely, into a tiebreaker they would lose with the Ravens -- they would face the Colts in the first round at Gillette, and then, on to a meeting with the Texans. On paper, those are far more favorable matchups than the idea of traveling to Denver and facing the Broncos, particularly when you consider the fact that the Patriots had no issue beating Houston and Indy.
While there’s a school of thought that Denver’s built its No. 2 seed while feasting on the AFC West -- every team should be so lucky as to play the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers twice a year -- the Broncos’ win over the Ravens on Sunday should be taken as a small measure that Denver, now nine games into a winning streak, is a formidable team with whom to be reckoned.
I’m not completely sold on the Broncos, as they have only beaten three teams that have a record currently better than .500. But considering that out of the Broncos, Texans and Colts, it was Denver that gave the Patriots the best game of the three (by a long shot), it just makes sense to try and avoid them.
Of course, if you set this plan in motion, you’re gambling on the fact that the rest of the playoff picture is going to play out as you hope -- that is to say, the Texans will stick at No. 1 and the Colts will stay at No. 5 spot. That seems to be fairly certain, as they both have winnable games this week -- Indy is at Kansas City, which is 2-12. Things are a little dicier for the Texans, who are home against Adrian Peterson and the Vikings, who are 8-6.
The only real danger facing the Patriots could be in the fact that the Ravens won’t allow them to take a step back. After starting 9-2 and clinching the AFC North, Baltimore has lost three straight and is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the league. At 9-5, they currently trail the Patriots by a game, but hold the tiebreaker because of their Sunday night win over New England in September. (Given the surreal nature of that game, wouldn’t it be interesting if that loss allows the Patriots to slip back into the No. 4 spot?)
Considering where they are right now and who they have to play over the final two games of the regular season -- the Giants and Bengals (both 8-6) -- there’s the very real possibility the Ravens end up at 9-7. That would do no good for the 10-4 Patriots if they’re interested in throwing on the brakes and trying to land that No. 4 spot. But if the Ravens win out and the Patriots split, the No. 4 seed belongs to Baltimore.
You don’t want to necessarily try it this week -- as crazy as this NFL season has been, there’s always the possibility that the Broncos lose, which would open the door for the Patriots to reclaim the No. 2 seed. But if the final week of the regular season sees New England with a chance to slip backward from No. 3 to No. 4, the Patriots should jump on it.
History supports the idea that the No. 4 seed can offer a better path to the Super Bowl than a No. 3 seed. Since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, the No. 3 seed has advanced to the big game just two times, while the No. 4 seed has reached the title game on six occasions, winning three times. (A seed-by-seed breakdown of Super Bowl entrants can be found here.)
The bottom line? If there’s no bye week in New England’s playoff future now that the top two seeds are pretty much out of sight, carve one out. Give Rob Gronkowski, Logan Mankins, Chandler Jones and the rest of the banged-up starters a week to get their bodies right. Think long-term, and think about the Dolphins. After all, it’s the season of giving, and who doesn’t like getting a nice present this time of year?
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Joe Castiglione talked to John Farrell before the second game against the Twins. The manager said that the Sox can win with small-ball or with big-ball.
Will Middlebrooks hit a 3-run double in the top of the 9th inning to power the Red Sox to a 4-3 victory over the Rays tonight. He joined Joe & Dave after the final call live from the dugout.
Larry joined the program to discuss the teams recent struggles and informed the guys that it is still early in the season. Larry also said that he still has faith that Daniel bard can turn things around.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
Pierre McGuire joins Tom Caron and Mut to discuss the Bruins young defensemen, the intensity and energy level in the game, and the Rangers offense.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this showDale Arnold joined the program to preview the Bruins Rangers series with John, Gerry and Kirk. Dale thinks the Bruins have the advantage in the series over New York.
More from this show