The Patriots meet the Niners Sunday night at Gillette Stadium in a game between two of the league’s elite teams. New England comes into the contest at 10-3, and with an eye on securing one of the top two seeds in the AFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, 9-3-1 San Francisco is looking to maintain the No. 2 spot in the NFC playoff race and hold off the pesky Seahawks in the chase for the NFC West title.
In this edition of “Scout’s Take,” one NFC scout who has watched both the Patriots and San Francisco takes a look at some of the points of emphasis for New England heading into Sunday’s game. (Per usual, we have the scout’s statements in italics, with our notes underneath.)
"San Francisco will struggle to score as many points as New England. If I’m the Niners, I try to slow game down with my style of play -- a deliberate pace. Slow the game down and keep Tom Brady and that offense off the field for as long as possible. Limiting New England’s offensive possessions will be key for San Francisco."
This season, the Niners are one of the few teams in the league that has been more successful than the Patriots when it comes to running the football. San Francisco’s 161.5 rushing yards per game is second in the league, and Frank Gore powers the Niners on the ground. The 29-year-old Gore (211 carries, 1,035, seven TDs) has been around for a few years, but can still deliver yards at a steady and consistent clip. They have two other players in Kendall Hunter (371 rushing yards) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (351 rushing yards) who have more than 300 rushing yards. They also average an astounding 5.3 yards per carry as a team, second-best in the league. Few teams are as capable as the Niners when it comes to slowing down the game -- their running game will provide a stern test for the New England run defense.
"The best way to beat a young quarterback like Colin Kaepernick is to force him into mistakes by getting ahead by a couple of scores then confuse with front looks and disguising coverages. You have to play with discipline on defense -- make sure he stays contained and don’t overrun him if/when he gets to the outside."
The 49ers are middle of the pack when it comes to scoring -- they average 24.3 points per game, 13th best in the league. However, Kaepernick (87-for-129, 1,073 yards, three TDs, one INT) has provided San Francisco with a boost over the second half of the season. A mobile presence who can keep plays alive with his legs when things break down, his game contains certain elements of Tim Tebow, in that he’s a quarterback who demands attention as a running threat. (Kaepernick has designed running plays.) As was the case when it came to defending Tebow, the guys on the edge must maintain stay wide to keep him contained, and the entire group of defenders must maintain gap discipline to keep him in check. In a perfect world, New England can prevent him from getting outside, forcing him back to the middle where linebacker Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes and defensive lineman Vince Wifork will be there waiting for him.
"San Francisco has a strong front seven, but they’re slightly above average in secondary. Aldon Smith is a difficult assignment for anyone in an individual blocking scheme, so what the Patriots need to do is get whoever is lined up on him some help! Change snap counts, draw offsides with cadence, and run at him. Put a lot of beef on him and make him work."
Defensively, the Niners are one of the most physical groups in the league. On average, they give up the fewest points per game in the league (14.2), and are sparked by their pass rush. San Francisco has 32 sacks on the season as a team, with the bulk of those (19.5, to be exact) from edge rusher Aldon Smith. The second-year man out of Mizzou is a terror coming off the edge, and will be a handful for New England left tackle Nate Solder. Look for the Patriots to try and help him with an extra tight end, either Daniel Fells or Michael Hoomanawanui (both of whom have done well as blockers this season). Justin Smith also helps anchor a very good defensive line, a group that’s complemented by a very talented group of linebackers in Patrick Willis, and NaVorro Bowman. It’s a young and aggressive bunch -- when faced with a group like that in the past, the New England offense has utilized screens, draws and reverses in hopes of using that aggression against them.
(One more thing on Smith: He has three sackless games on the season. Two of them were San Francisco losses. Chances are good that if the New England offensive line throws a shutout at Smith -- like it did Monday night against Houston’s J.J. Watt -- the Patriots can come out of the game with a win.)
In reality, so much of this week’s game plan will be wrapped up in the idea that the Patriots get to an early lead. It’s always a point of emphasis for New England, but as was the case last Monday against Houston, you don’t want to dig yourself an early hole when facing the Niners, because they are very tough when they have a lead: on offense, that allows them to play to their strengths (running the ball and grinding the clock). And on defense, if they know a team needs to throw the ball to stay in the game, they can unleash Smith and a very good pass rush.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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