The idea the Patriots’ success this season has been because they’ve been gifted with a softer schedule than the rest of their AFC counterparts is one of the league’s great misconceptions. The truth of the matter is that by just about every metric, New England has faced the sternest test of any of its conference counterparts.
Admittedly, it’s a down year for the AFC, and as a result, unlike other years, there’s no team that has managed to separate itself from the rest of the pack. The stronger members of the conference have feasted on the weaker clubs, creating a great divide between the top tier and the bottom of the AFC. But compared to the other playoff frontrunners, New England has encountered a relatively more challenging regular season -- through 13 games, the Patriots have the strongest schedule of any of the top six playoff contenders. Their opponents can boast a .521 winning percentage.
If the playoffs started today, the following 12 teams would make the postseason: Houston, New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Indy and Baltimore from the AFC; Atlanta, San Francisco, Chicago, Green Bay, Seattle and the New York Giants from the NFC.
The Patriots and Texans would be the only two AFC teams whose schedules include six teams currently positioned for the playoffs. New England has faced Indy, Houston, Denver, Seattle and Baltimore over the course of the 2012 season with San Francisco still on the docket. The Texans squared off against Denver, Green Bay, Baltimore, Chicago, New England and Indy.
There are two ways to measure strength of schedule. First, you can look at the totality of an opposing team’s work over the course of the full season -- that provides a pretty good snapshot when it comes to the overall strength of schedule. For instance: The Patriots have played the 9-4 Ravens and the 4-9 Cardinals.
But you can also look at the strength of an opponent based on its record at game time, which provides a sharper view when it comes to the overall level of competition. That approach suggests that a win over the Eagles in the first month of the season -- at a time when Philadelphia was playing for something other than pride -- meant more than it might at this stage of the season, when the team’s playoff hopes have been flushed.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the AFC playoff-positioned teams match up in terms of strength of schedule (all results are through 13 games, and the team are listed in order of their current playoff seeding).
Texans' strength of schedule for season: 78-91 (.462)
Texans' strength of schedule at game time: 40-39 (.506)
Like the rest of the AFC’s elite, the Texans have done well when it comes to feasting on weaker opponents, including the Jaguars and Titans, two division foes that enter the last three weeks of the season with a combined record of 6-20. Outside of the Patriots and Packers, Houston has met all comers and done well against them, with quality wins against the Ravens (who were 5-1 when the two teams met) and the Bears (who were 7-1 at the time). Their strength of schedule numbers figure to increase in both categories, as they have two games remaining with the 9-4 Colts.
Patriots' strength of schedule for season: 88-80-1 (.521)
Patriots' strength of schedule at game time: 44-34 (.564)
New England is tops in both categories, leading the field for a few reasons: First, they were one of the only AFC leaders who didn’t get a chance to feast on the AFC West on a regular basis, which provided a boost to them in both categories and gave them a harder road. (They beat the Broncos, but didn’t get a chance against the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders like Denver and some others did.) Second, the Patriots built their strength of schedule numbers relatively early. For a team derided by some as one that simply knocked over a series of tomato cans, the records of New England's opponents over the first half of the season didn't reflect that -- none of New England’s first seven opponents in 2012 came into their game against the Patriots with a record below .500. (Their first sub-.500 team was Oct. 28, when New England clashed with the Rams in London, and St. Louis entered that game 3-4.) The Patriots numbers figure to dip slightly down the stretch -- their three remaining opponents have a combined record of 16-22-1, with the Niners being the only plus-.500 team left on their schedule.
Broncos' strength of schedule for season: 78-89 (.467)
Broncos' strength of schedule at game time: 30-48 (.385)
The AFC West is the weakest division in football, and the Broncos have taken advantage to bust out to a 10-3 mark. Denver had a rough stretch early, with three of its first five games against teams that now have at least 10 wins. (The Broncos lost all three of those games.) Denver has just two wins against teams that currently have winning records -- the Steelers and Bengals, both of whom are 7-6.
Ravens' strength of schedule for season: 80-89 (.473)
Ravens' strength of schedule at game time: 37-41 (.474)
The Ravens can boast some quality wins, including victories against New England and Pittsburgh. But they’ve also been fortunate enough to fatten up on the AFC West, where Baltimore has gone 3-0. The Ravens’ strength of schedule numbers should improve between now and the end of the season, however, as their three remaining opponents all hold records of .500 or better.
Colts' strength of schedule for season: 73-98 (.427)
Colts' strength of schedule at game time: 32-49 (.395)
The Colts are a fantastic story, but they could be the most hollow 9-4 team in NFL history -- over their first 13 games, they faced an opponent who came into their game with Indy with a better than .500 record just three times. Indy met the Vikings when they were 1-0, the Dolphins when they were 4-3 and the Patriots when they were 6-3. They will have a chance to improve on those numbers over the last three games, as they have a pair of games against the 11-2 Texans sandwiched around a date with the 2-11 Chiefs.
Steelers' strength of schedule for season: 79-90 (.467)
Steelers' strength of schedule at game time: 40-43 (.482)
Like the Ravens, the Steelers have fattened up on the weaker teams, but no one really knows what to make of Pittsburgh as the stretch run continues -- this year, the Steelers have won tough games on the road against playoff teams Baltimore and the New York Giants, but they’ve also lost to the Titans, Raiders, Browns and the Chargers, four teams who won’t be going to the postseason.
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