Each week going forward, we’re going to look at some of the commonly held misconceptions regarding the upcoming Patriots game. This week, we take a look at the five myths surrounding New England’s Monday night matchup with the Texans at Gillette Stadium.
•Brandon Spikes is a two-down linebacker who can’t play vs. the pass.
The third-year linebacker has really managed to come into his own this season -- it’s not a complete coincidence that one of the reasons he’s played so well is that he’s been consistent healthy since the start of the year. Already considered one of the best young thumpers in the game, his greatest gains this year have come in pass coverage.
Midway through the 2011 season, he was something of a liability when it came to pass defense -- when it came to nickel coverage, he was routinely rotated out in favor of an extra defensive back or a faster linebacker. But the improvements started late last season, and by the time the Super Bowl came around, assistant coach Pepper Johnson was openly wondering (alberit tongue-in-cheek) why Spikes wasn’t on the field on a consistent basis on third down and other passing situations.
And after some rough patches where we was exposed at times earlier in the season, it’s clear that Spikes has been more than competitive while on the field as a pass defender -- he’s actually third on the team in passes defensed with 7 (trailing only defensive backs Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington). He's never going to be confused with Darrelle Revis, but he's improved to the point where he deserves to be on the field on passing downs more and more. You could make an argument that he sees more passes come his way because opposing offenses see him as a liability in coverage, but regardless, the idea that Spikes now has more PD’s than Patrick Chung, Steve Gregory and Ras-I Dowling combined should tell you all you need to know about how far he’s come.
•The Patriots need to get into a shootout if they want to win.
New England beat the Dolphins on Sunday, 23-16, with only two offensive touchdowns to show for it. It was the fewest number of points the Patriots had scored in a win this season, and it marked the second-fewest number of points and touchdowns they had scored all season. (New England managed 18 -- with just one touchdown -- in a Sept. 16 loss to the Cardinals.)
For all the talk about this team setting all sorts of offensive records, Sunday was evidence that they can grind it out with the best of them, with the highlight coming in the fourth quarter when they bullied the Dolphins. Against one of the best run defenses in the league, the Patriots were able to assemble a 16-play drive that featured 12 running plays, moving the chains on a soul-crushing sequence that may have been its best offensive series of the year.
In addition, while it wasn’t able to force a ton of turnovers (more on that later), the defense and special teams made several timely plays at the right times, including a fourth-quarter sack by Jerod Mayo that forced Miami to settle for the field goal. The Patriots also took advantage of two key special teams errors by the Dolphins (a botched punt that gave the New England offense a short field and an ill-timed penalty on a punt that returned the ball to the Patriots).
•The Patriots don’t blitz.
Whether it’s the fact that they fancy themselves a game-plan defense (and that it’s been more advantageous to bring more rushers over the last few weeks), the fact that there’s more confidence in the secondary and their coverage skills, or they are trying out some different looks when it comes to creating pressure, but New England has appeared to increase its’ blitzing frequency over the last few games. We checked the numbers with two different statistical sources:
•Pro Football Focus says the Patriots have blitzed more often over the last three games -- 32.7 percent of the passing plays against Indy (second-most on the season), 27.5 percent against the Jets and 25 percent of the time against the Dolphins. That’s the first time this year they have blitzed on more than 25 percent of the passing plays over three straight games, per PFF. (By way of comparison, New England blitzed the most against the Seahawks at 41.2 percent, while they blitzed the least against the Ravens -- 6.4 percent.)
•Per ESPN Stats & Information, the Patriots have steadily increased the number of rushers on any pass attempt, sack or quarterback scramble since the start of the season. In September, they sent five or more rushers on 12 percent of those plays. In October, that figure rose to 18.5 percent. In November, it moved to 22.3 percent.
Two big blitz moments stood out last week against the Dolphins. On one occasion, the Patriots sent defensive back Kyle Arrington off the corner, and he was able to get to Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill as he threw. And late in the game, Mayo came on a delayed blitz up the middle, which led to a sack. The second play was a huge play, as if forced the Dolphins to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown.
(One other reason for the possible increase in blitzes? The fact that defensive end Chandler Jones has been on the shelf for the better part of the last three weeks. The rookie, who suffered an ankle injury in the Week 11 win over the Colts, was the Patriots leading pass rusher to that point in the season, and the fact that he was on the sidelines forced New England to try and get creative when it came to getting pressure on the quarterback.)
•The Patriots will dominate the Texans because that’s how they roll at home in December.
New England comes into Monday night’s game with a 20-1 mark at home in the month of December. (Try and come up with the team and the year before scrolling to the end of this segment.) But the Texans are the best road team to come into Gillette in December. Ever, and it’s not even close. Going all the way back to when the place opened up in 2002, there’s never been a visiting team with a better record than 11-1 Houston.
Houston has gone 11-4 on the road (including the 2011 playoff loss to the Ravens in Baltimore) dating back to the start of the 2011 season, and has won in all sorts of circumstances and environments. Despite the fact they’re relatively young, they’ve proven to be more than mentally tough enough to go into a hostile setting, and don’t figure to be intimidated by their surroundings on Monday night.
For the record, there were three teams who were almost as good as the Texans record-wise, and two of them made it as far as their conference championship game:
•There was the 2010 Jets’ team, which entered their Dec. 6 game against New England with a 9-3 mark, but was curb-stomped on the way to a 45-3 defeat at the hands of the Patriots. (They reached the AFC title game.)
•Later that same month, New England barely escaped with a 31-27 win over a Green Bay team on Dec. 19. The Packers were only 8-5 coming into the game, but that would be its last loss of the season, as Green Bay would go on to win the Super Bowl.
•And in 2007, the Steelers entered their Dec. 9 game against New England in Foxboro with a 9-4 mark. One blown guarantee from a rookie defensive back later, they left town with a 34-13 loss.
(For what it’s worth, the 2008 Steelers nearly bucked the trend. They came into Foxboro on Nov. 30 of that season and absolutely crushed New England, 33-10, in one of the more dominant late-season performances by any visiting team in Gillette Stadium history. The one team that did win in Foxboro in December were the 2002 Jets, who came into Gillette Stadium and won a Sunday night game on the strength of a terrific performance from Chad Pennington, who was 23-for-33 for 285 yards and three touchdowns.)
•The Patriots’ defense needs to force a bunch of turnovers to thrive.
Likewise, the New England defense was able to come away with just one turnover on Sunday against the Dolphins. It marked just the fourth time all year that the Patriots did not finish the game with at least one interception (defensive end Trevor Scott forced one fumble, which was recovered by Vince Wilfork) and just the second time all season New England had just one takeaway (the other one coming in a September loss to Baltimore).
Considering the fact that the Houston are almost as stingy as the Patriots when it comes to protecting the ball (the Texans are +14 when it comes to takeaways), expect it to be another slow week when it comes to forcing fumbles and interceptions. The one area of weakness when it comes to ball security is likely quarterback Matt Schaub, who has thrown nine interceptions on the season. (Backup T.J. Yates has thrown one.) It’s not much, but Houston does a good job in every other area when it comes to protecting the football.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Will Middlebrooks hit a 3-run double in the top of the 9th inning to power the Red Sox to a 4-3 victory over the Rays tonight. He joined Joe & Dave after the final call live from the dugout.
Larry joined the program to discuss the teams recent struggles and informed the guys that it is still early in the season. Larry also said that he still has faith that Daniel bard can turn things around.
Stephen Drew helped the Red Sox to a 9-2 victory over the Rays tonight with a grand slam in the 3rd inning. He spoke with Joe Castiglione & Dave O'Brien after the game.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
Pierre McGuire joins Tom Caron and Mut to discuss the Bruins young defensemen, the intensity and energy level in the game, and the Rangers offense.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showDale Arnold joined the program to preview the Bruins Rangers series with John, Gerry and Kirk. Dale thinks the Bruins have the advantage in the series over New York.
More from this show