Despite the fact that the Texans lead the AFC with an 11-1 record, they’re not without vulnerabilities. With that in mind, here’s a five-point plan for the Patriots to knock off the Texans Monday night at Gillette:
Offensively, win on first and second down: The Texans are best in the league when it comes to third-down defense, holding opposing offenses to just a 28.4 conversion rate (46- for-162). Much of that is because they are excellent at winning the individual battles on first and second down, forcing teams into 3rd and long situations where they have to pass the ball. When teams are able to keep third-down situations manageable, they have had success against Houston: in their overtime loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving, the Lions’ offense was 9-for-18 on third down (a season-high for a Houston opponent). Detroit accomplished this by winning first down -- the Lions averaged 7.2 yards per play on first down against Houston. More no-huddle from New England could help in this department.
(One more thing: The Patriots are the best third-down offense in the league, converting 90 of their 171 chances -- a rate of 52.6 percent -- on third down through 12 games.)
Don’t bite on the play fakes: According to Pro Football Focus, Matt Schaub and the Texans are one of the most proficient teams in the league when it comes to running play action. Per PFF, Schaub has run play action on 27.9 percent of his dropbacks this season, fifth in the league behind Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Christian Ponder and Cam Newton. (Schaub is tied for first in the league with Drew Brees in touchdown passes off play action with 10.) It’s difficult when you consider that Houston leads the league in rushing attempts with 413, but properly defending play action starts with being smart and not overaggressive, particularly when you’re talking about the linebackers and safeties. This will fall on players like linebacker Brandon Spikes and safeties Steve Gregory and Devin McCourty, who can’t bite when Schaub fakes a handoff to (usually) Arian Foster.
“I think the biggest challenge is that they run the ball so well too. It’s not just they’re calling play-action. They’re setting it up,” McCourty said Wednesday. “For us in the secondary, it’ll be tough. We have to do a good job of trying to get good reads. When we have to come up and help make tackles, we have to come up. There will be times when we have to stay deep, because when they do play action, they do get the ball down the field. They get the ball to their receivers.
“Discipline is going to be very key in this game. It’s just about trying to get a good feel for the game and just being honest with your eyes, reading your keys, and just trying to play smart football.”
Attack the cornerbacks: If there’s a soft spot in the Houston defense, it’s the cornerbacks. The Texans secondary is pretty banged up -- cornerback Brice McCain fractured his foot during Sunday’s win over the Titans and is lost for the year, while fellow cornerback Johnathan Joseph (who has traditionally been matched against the opponents’ best receiver) has been battling a hamstring issue. They signed Stanford Routt off the street earlier this week to help provide depth. (For all the talk about how good the Houston defense is, the Texans are in the bottom half of the league statistically when it comes to stopping the pass, allowing an average of 235 passing yards a game. Houston has allowed four opposing passers to top 300 yards.) The bottom line is that even if Joseph is able to go Monday night, the Texans might not have the sort of quality depth in their secondary to contain a spread offense that has as many options in the passing game as New England.
Avoid J.J. Watt at all costs: To be sure, this is well-trod ground, but the 6-foot-5, 290-pound defensive lineman may be the most complete defender the Patriots will face all season, and has one of the unlikeliest stat lines you’ll ever see -- 15.5 sacks and 15 passes defensed. (FWIW, Brady has had seven passes batted down this season.) Watt is unique on two levels: one, you rarely find a defensive end who operates in a 3-4 come away with so many sacks. And two, he’s also equally accomplished when it comes to playing the run, as PFF has him at an astounding +33.5 when it comes to his individual run defense. One way to combat his style might be to try and use that aggression against him -- New England could use play-action of its own to get him on his toes. (For all the talk of the Texans being a team that utilizes play action, Brady and the Patriots have run PA on 24.9 percent of their dropbacks this season, seventh in the league.) There’s also reverses, draws and traps to try and keep him off balance. The Texans move him around, but he’ll likely spend a sizable portion of his time going against right tackle Sebastian Vollmer -- when healthy, he’s been New England’s best and most consistent lineman all season.
“He’s an incredible player,” Brady said Wednesday. “The way that he gets after the quarterback, stops the run, I think he does both of those things well – stopping the run, rushing the quarterback, as well as defending in the pass game with those balls batted down. He’s impressive as a player, as you can see on film with his agility, his quickness, his length, his instinctiveness in getting his hands up in the air and getting ready to jump and bat balls down. He’s a great player for that defense; they really rely on him.”
Continue to force turnovers: Duh. The Patriots remain tops in the league when it comes to takeaways at +24, and while they will be facing a team that does a pretty good job of taking care of the ball (the Texans are second in the AFC behind the Patriots at +14), Houston has been prone to turnovers at bad times. In its one loss this season, the Texans turned the ball over three times to the Packers on three interceptions (two from Schaub and one from backup quarterback T.J. Yates). Schaub has thrown 10 picks this season -- if New England can force him into a few bad throws, it will greatly increase the Patriots chances of winning a seventh straight ballgame.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
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Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
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Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
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Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
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