Remember when the regular-season showdown between the Patriots and Colts was simply the first act of a two-part miniseries that everyone thought was ultimately going to be settled down the road? CBS cranked up the hype machine, national writers fell back on the default “good vs. evil” storylines and the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning matchup made everyone’s heart skip a beat.
Well, Brady vs. Matt Schaub doesn’t have the same ring, and for that matter, it’s going to be awful tough to come up with broadly-drawn storylines to suit a matchup between Bill Belichick and Gary Kubiak. (“One runs up the score! The other ... once backed up John Elway!”) But this week’s game between the Patriots and Texans deserves the same level of pregame buzz as those old showdowns, because when it comes to the AFC this year, it’s New England and Houston, and everyone else is fighting for third.
Sunday will be the first meeting of the season between the two, and they’ll meet again in the AFC championship game in January. While neither team is perfect, they are simply the least flawed of the conference, and this year, that’s good enough to get them over. The reality of the situation is that at this point, the rest of the AFC is doing too much hoping and praying and keeping their fingers crossed when it comes to health and home-field advantage. Consider the rest of the inhabitants of the AFC’s high-rent district:
•The Steelers are resting their hopes on the shoulder of Charlie Batch -- who might have made his first start while wearing a leather helmet -- while Ben Roethlisberger tries to rehab as fast as possible. (There’s also the possibility they get passed by the Bengals, who are tied with them for second place in the AFC North as they head into the final quarter of the season.) They still have a stout defense, but last Sunday’s season-saving win over the Ravens aside, the feeling remains that if you get them outside of Heinz Field, they can be had. (They can finish no better than .500 on the road.)
•Meanwhile, this isn’t the same Ravens team that barely beat the Patriots in September. They’re awfully banged up -- they’re doing everything but having Ray Lewis sleep in a hyperbaric chamber in hopes of getting him healed up by Christmas. And Joe Flacco certainly isn’t causing sleepness nights for opposing defensive coordinators, particularly after throwing an interception against the Steelers that looked like something straight out of the Mark Sanchez catalog. (He finished 16-for-34 for 188 yards, one touchdown and one interception, all while being sacked three tines.)
•Meanwhile, the only team out West who inspires fear and loathing are the Broncos, who are on a seven-game win streak , but in the midst of a schedule that’s so pillowy soft you could sleep on it. (You would feel good about your teams’ chances too if their four remaining opponents had a combined winning percentage of .375, with just one team above .500. I’m not sure how the NFL dictionary definition of “false bravado,” but this might be it.)
That leaves the Patriots and Texans. Certainly, there’s a lot to like about Houston: They are a multiple offense that has different options when it comes to running and passing the ball. When you start trying to match up the teams head-to-head, New England us going to have the edge, but Schaub has very good numbers, as he’s gone 266-for-413 for 3,062 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. They also have a stud running back in Arian Foster (1,102 yards on 283 carries and 13 touchdowns) and an elite receiver in Andre Johnson (74 catches, 1,114 yards and three touchdowns).
One thing about the Houston offense, and the running game in particular -- it’s coming off a sluggish outing against the Titans. In that one, Foster had 38 yards on 14 carries, an average of 2.7 per carry. Justin Forsett had 64 yards on 14 carries, while Ben Tate added with three for 18 yards. And in the second half, Johnson didn’t have a catch, Schaub threw for 40 yards over the last two quarters and the Texans were 2-for-9 on third down.
Houston also has a steady and consistent defense -- the group has given up some big plays, but they’ve managed to do just enough to win games all year long. They also have defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who has swallowed opposing offenses whole over the course of the 2012 season. (Watt is the ultimate statistical anomaly -- he has 15.5 sacks and 15 passes defensed this season.) While there are some questions about the state of the Houston cornerbacks, more often than not the pass rush cancels out any problems they have had.
(In truth, there are some similarities between the Texans and the Patriots. For a team that’s 11-1, Houston really doesn't blow out a lot of their opponents. Like New England, the Texans have been accused of failing to build up the requisite style points against substandard opponents -- they’ve won overtime games against the Lions and Jags, and struggled to beat the Jets and Bills. But like Bill Belichick said on Sunday, “It’s not about stats, it’s about wins. That’s what we’re here for.”)
As for the 9-3 Patriots, they proved Sunday they don’t need a boatload of points -- or takeaways -- to beat you, coming away with a 23-16 win over the Dolphins that featured two touchdowns and one takeaway. After a slow start, New England has hit a nice stretch where its’ managed to put together six consecutive wins, thanks in large part to a world-class offense that is still at or near the top of the league in most major categories and a defense that continues to force takeaways at a tremendous clip. Quarterback Tom Brady (298-for-460, 3,537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs) remains a difference maker, and even without Rob Gronkowski the last two weeks, he’s managed to nose his way into another MVP conversation. Stevan Ridley (225 carries, 1,010 yards, 9 TDs) has emerged as one of the best young backs in the AFC, and Wes Welker (92 catches, 1,064 yards, 4 TDs) is on his way to another 100-catch season.
The offensive balance that has helped the Patriots this year will almost certainly be tested, however, as the Texans are in the Top 5 in every major category when it comes to run defense. (Statistically, Houston will be the most complete defense New England will face during the 2012 regular-season, as they are also at or near the top of the list when it comes to pass defense and total defense numbers.) And the takeaways that the Patriots’ defense has feasted on over the course of the 2012 season (+24 right now, easily the best in the league) might not be there against a Houston team that does a good job taking care of the ball -- the Texans are +14, second-best in the AFC behind the Patriots.
In short, while Patriots-Texans doesn’t yet have the same familiar feeling of the blood feud that existed between New England and Indy almost a decade ago, it’s got enough pure football at its heart that the meeting should provide the best matchup of the season for both teams. And make sure you pay close attention Monday, because no matter who wins, you’re going to see them run it back again late next month.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Will Middlebrooks hit a 3-run double in the top of the 9th inning to power the Red Sox to a 4-3 victory over the Rays tonight. He joined Joe & Dave after the final call live from the dugout.
Larry joined the program to discuss the teams recent struggles and informed the guys that it is still early in the season. Larry also said that he still has faith that Daniel bard can turn things around.
Stephen Drew helped the Red Sox to a 9-2 victory over the Rays tonight with a grand slam in the 3rd inning. He spoke with Joe Castiglione & Dave O'Brien after the game.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
Pierre McGuire joins Tom Caron and Mut to discuss the Bruins young defensemen, the intensity and energy level in the game, and the Rangers offense.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this showIn the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
More from this show