Remember when the regular-season showdown between the Patriots and Colts was simply the first act of a two-part miniseries that everyone thought was ultimately going to be settled down the road? CBS cranked up the hype machine, national writers fell back on the default “good vs. evil” storylines and the Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning matchup made everyone’s heart skip a beat.
Well, Brady vs. Matt Schaub doesn’t have the same ring, and for that matter, it’s going to be awful tough to come up with broadly-drawn storylines to suit a matchup between Bill Belichick and Gary Kubiak. (“One runs up the score! The other ... once backed up John Elway!”) But this week’s game between the Patriots and Texans deserves the same level of pregame buzz as those old showdowns, because when it comes to the AFC this year, it’s New England and Houston, and everyone else is fighting for third.
Sunday will be the first meeting of the season between the two, and they’ll meet again in the AFC championship game in January. While neither team is perfect, they are simply the least flawed of the conference, and this year, that’s good enough to get them over. The reality of the situation is that at this point, the rest of the AFC is doing too much hoping and praying and keeping their fingers crossed when it comes to health and home-field advantage. Consider the rest of the inhabitants of the AFC’s high-rent district:
•The Steelers are resting their hopes on the shoulder of Charlie Batch -- who might have made his first start while wearing a leather helmet -- while Ben Roethlisberger tries to rehab as fast as possible. (There’s also the possibility they get passed by the Bengals, who are tied with them for second place in the AFC North as they head into the final quarter of the season.) They still have a stout defense, but last Sunday’s season-saving win over the Ravens aside, the feeling remains that if you get them outside of Heinz Field, they can be had. (They can finish no better than .500 on the road.)
•Meanwhile, this isn’t the same Ravens team that barely beat the Patriots in September. They’re awfully banged up -- they’re doing everything but having Ray Lewis sleep in a hyperbaric chamber in hopes of getting him healed up by Christmas. And Joe Flacco certainly isn’t causing sleepness nights for opposing defensive coordinators, particularly after throwing an interception against the Steelers that looked like something straight out of the Mark Sanchez catalog. (He finished 16-for-34 for 188 yards, one touchdown and one interception, all while being sacked three tines.)
•Meanwhile, the only team out West who inspires fear and loathing are the Broncos, who are on a seven-game win streak , but in the midst of a schedule that’s so pillowy soft you could sleep on it. (You would feel good about your teams’ chances too if their four remaining opponents had a combined winning percentage of .375, with just one team above .500. I’m not sure how the NFL dictionary definition of “false bravado,” but this might be it.)
That leaves the Patriots and Texans. Certainly, there’s a lot to like about Houston: They are a multiple offense that has different options when it comes to running and passing the ball. When you start trying to match up the teams head-to-head, New England us going to have the edge, but Schaub has very good numbers, as he’s gone 266-for-413 for 3,062 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. They also have a stud running back in Arian Foster (1,102 yards on 283 carries and 13 touchdowns) and an elite receiver in Andre Johnson (74 catches, 1,114 yards and three touchdowns).
One thing about the Houston offense, and the running game in particular -- it’s coming off a sluggish outing against the Titans. In that one, Foster had 38 yards on 14 carries, an average of 2.7 per carry. Justin Forsett had 64 yards on 14 carries, while Ben Tate added with three for 18 yards. And in the second half, Johnson didn’t have a catch, Schaub threw for 40 yards over the last two quarters and the Texans were 2-for-9 on third down.
Houston also has a steady and consistent defense -- the group has given up some big plays, but they’ve managed to do just enough to win games all year long. They also have defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who has swallowed opposing offenses whole over the course of the 2012 season. (Watt is the ultimate statistical anomaly -- he has 15.5 sacks and 15 passes defensed this season.) While there are some questions about the state of the Houston cornerbacks, more often than not the pass rush cancels out any problems they have had.
(In truth, there are some similarities between the Texans and the Patriots. For a team that’s 11-1, Houston really doesn't blow out a lot of their opponents. Like New England, the Texans have been accused of failing to build up the requisite style points against substandard opponents -- they’ve won overtime games against the Lions and Jags, and struggled to beat the Jets and Bills. But like Bill Belichick said on Sunday, “It’s not about stats, it’s about wins. That’s what we’re here for.”)
As for the 9-3 Patriots, they proved Sunday they don’t need a boatload of points -- or takeaways -- to beat you, coming away with a 23-16 win over the Dolphins that featured two touchdowns and one takeaway. After a slow start, New England has hit a nice stretch where its’ managed to put together six consecutive wins, thanks in large part to a world-class offense that is still at or near the top of the league in most major categories and a defense that continues to force takeaways at a tremendous clip. Quarterback Tom Brady (298-for-460, 3,537 yards, 25 TDs, 4 INTs) remains a difference maker, and even without Rob Gronkowski the last two weeks, he’s managed to nose his way into another MVP conversation. Stevan Ridley (225 carries, 1,010 yards, 9 TDs) has emerged as one of the best young backs in the AFC, and Wes Welker (92 catches, 1,064 yards, 4 TDs) is on his way to another 100-catch season.
The offensive balance that has helped the Patriots this year will almost certainly be tested, however, as the Texans are in the Top 5 in every major category when it comes to run defense. (Statistically, Houston will be the most complete defense New England will face during the 2012 regular-season, as they are also at or near the top of the list when it comes to pass defense and total defense numbers.) And the takeaways that the Patriots’ defense has feasted on over the course of the 2012 season (+24 right now, easily the best in the league) might not be there against a Houston team that does a good job taking care of the ball -- the Texans are +14, second-best in the AFC behind the Patriots.
In short, while Patriots-Texans doesn’t yet have the same familiar feeling of the blood feud that existed between New England and Indy almost a decade ago, it’s got enough pure football at its heart that the meeting should provide the best matchup of the season for both teams. And make sure you pay close attention Monday, because no matter who wins, you’re going to see them run it back again late next month.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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John Farrell postgame press conference
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Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
....uhhhh.....a bunch of bombs over there....
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
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